Soccer: CL Best Bets - Semifinals
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
UEFA Champions League Semifinals - First Legs
There is quite a split between the four clubs in this year’s Champions League semifinals. All four are continental powerhouses, but two are old names at Europe’s top table and two are relatively new.
Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are the biggest clubs in their respective countries. They have won this competition 15 times between them. Manchester City, meanwhile, are in their first ever Champions League semifinal. Atletico Madrid have never won the competition either, but they did come within a minute of it in the 2014 final.
Bayern Munich have a difficult-looking draw with Atletico, but their consistent form over the season sees them go into the last four as 6/4 favourites.
Real Madrid will fancy their chances against Manchester City, but regular failure against the best teams in Europe over the last decade mean they are behind Bayern at 15/8.
Atletico Madrid are an attractive-looking 7/2 - they will fancy their chances against either of the other two semi-finalists.
Manchester City, who surprised a lot of people by defeating PSG in the last round, are outsiders at 15/2.
Tuesday, Apr. 26 (FS1, 2:45 p.m. ET)
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid: Real Madrid to win at 29/20 (+145)
Manchester City were heavy outsiders to get past PSG and many people, including me, had written them off. But a 2-2 draw in Paris followed by an uncharacteristically mature 1-0 win at home (in a dreadful game, it must be said) saw them through.
But it is right that they should be outsiders, even at home. They are 2/1 to win this game and the same price to qualify for the final. Real Madrid are 29/20 to win on the night and 4/11 to make it to Milan.
It is necessary, not just to make myself feel better about an incorrect prediction, to put City’s win over PSG into proper context. They were very lucky to escape from the first leg with a 2-2 draw. They should have been at least two goals down before Kevin de Bruyne gave them the lead.
And in the second leg they were up against a PSG side short of Blaise Matuidi and Marco Verratti - two players who do so much to ensure PSG dominate games in midfield. That, added to some rather brainless tactical decisions from Laurent Blanc, all ensured that City’s opponents were nowhere near their best.
But of course Real Madrid hardly had it easy in the quarterfinals. They lost 2-0 at Wolfsburg before Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 37th Real Madrid hat-trick in the second leg to see Los Blancos through. Since then, however, they have been back on their usual form of sweeping aside Spanish teams with plenty to spare. Their most recent results in the league (all wins) go 3-1, 7-1, 2-1, 4-0, 2-1 (against Barcelona), 4-0, 5-1, 3-0, 3-2. In Cristiano Ronaldo they have a genius hitting form at the right time (playing against a City side without Vincent Kompany).
City’s price seems to have taken their win over PSG into account too much, and 29/20 on Real Madrid is more than fair.
Wednesday, Apr. 27 (FS1, 2:45 p.m. ET)
Atletico Madrid vs. Bayern Munich: Atletico Madrid to win 1-0 at 6/1
This looks like being the most interesting two-legged European tie for years. Pep Guardiola, the great attacking coach of the era, takes on Diego Simeone who, along with Jose Mourinho, stands for the other type of football - all about fight, determination and tactical intelligence. And a lot of good defending.
The prices on this game are rather similar to in the City-Real match, though fewer goals are expected and the draw is a correspondingly shorter price. Atletico are 2/1 to win on the night and 13/8 to qualify. Bayern are 13/8 to win on the night and 4/9 to qualify.
Guardiola has lost his last three Champions League semifinals, and this looks set up very nicely for Atletico at the prices. Atletico knocked out a slightly superior team in Barcelona in the last round - and they did it with relative ease. Had Fernando Torres not been sent off in the first leg, they may well not have lost 2-1. And in any case, they won 2-0 at the fortress of the Vicente Calderon stadium.
At 6/1 odds, a 1-0 outcome seems like a very short price for a correct score, but there are many reasons to be confident in backing this. They have kept seven clean sheets in eight home games in the competition this year. Even more amazingly, they have kept six consecutive clean sheets in knockout games - including against Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus and Chelsea.
Bayern’s away record in big games this year has been patchy, and Atletico have enough to get a goal or two. 1-0 looks a very tasty bet.