Betting 101: How to Safely Bet the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs
By Jason Logan
The NHL playoffs, more so than any other sport’s postseason, are about as different from the regular season as you can get.
Teams that dominated during the regular schedule suddenly find themselves on the brink of elimination, and clubs that squeaked into the playoff picture can catch fire and ride a hot goalie all the way to the Stanley Cup.
In order to help hockey bettors navigate the upside-down world of postseason puck, we asked some of Covers Experts’ top handicappers to share their best tips, tactics, and trends when it comes to successfully wagering on the NHL’s second season.
Hot goaltenders
Like pitching in baseball, goaltending can singlehandedly win a playoff series. Year after year, hockey bettors witness incredible performances between the pipes and make a small mint riding these red-hot keepers.
On the other side of the coin, not having a proven No. 1 goalie can quickly put a wrap on the season – no matter how many goals a team can score. Expert Jesse Schule points to the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have been ushered out of the playoffs the past three years thanks to shaky play in the crease.
“When I’m looking to narrow down the field to legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, I always look at the goaltenders first,” agrees Sean Murphy. “Which ones are capable of carrying a team on their shoulders if need be? Who can steal a game, or even a series?”
The Ottawa Senators are hoping rookie sensation Andrew Hammond can step up to the challenge after a breakout campaign. Hammond finished with a 20-1-2 record and a 1.79 GAA, and finished April with a 5-0-1 record and 1.60 GAA heading into the playoffs.
Depth and toughness
Ever watch a hockey player get interviewed about his team’s deep postseason run? More often than not, the guy’s face looks like someone dropped a plate of spaghetti on the floor and then tried to sew it back together.
The NHL playoffs are a grueling challenge of teams’ overall talent and toughness. When a series goes six or seven games, the true depth of a roster is drawn to the surface.
Injuries can spoil an NHL bet faster than a Zdeno Chara slapshot and knowing which teams are healthy, getting healthy, and beat up entering the playoffs is a good way to gauge just where you should put your money.
“Some teams that were banged up earlier this season are healthy now and could perform better than expected, while the opposite could be true of teams suffering through multiple injuries at the moment,” says Doc’s Sports.
Teams that can get production from their third and fourth lines are the ones who survive, while clubs that rely on a few key players to carry the team often find themselves trading hockey sticks for golf clubs. Opponents draw up schemes to shadow and lock down these stars and force role players to beat them.
“It’s important to consider depth,” says Murphy. “Which teams can roll four lines and get steady production from their role players? Unlike other sports, the NHL playoffs aren’t all about the superstars. It’s the grinders that often decide which team is left standing in June.”
Physicality also plays a major role in the outcome of the playoffs, with every hit looked at as an investment. Finesse teams can get worn down over the course of a series while teams that like to lay the lumber excel in the furious pace of the postseason.
“Some teams might not be the fastest and most skilled, but instead they out-work, out-hit, and physically dominate their opponents,” says Schule.
Road Warriors
Another big difference between the NHL playoffs and other sports’ tournaments is the importance – or lack thereof – when it comes to home ice.
In basketball and football, having the crowd on your side is crucial to a championship run. However, in hockey, bettors get great value with road teams in the postseason. Hot home teams like Tampa Bay or Nashville may be good fade bait while tough road clubs, like the New York Rangers, can hold added pop on the road.
“Other than getting the final line change, there is really not much of an edge for the home team,” says Steve Merril. “Obviously, the crowd will be supporting them. But unlike the NBA, it does not influence officials as much, as penalties are normally called evenly and on an alternating makeup basis. NHL playoffs is the one sport where I feel home teams are generally overvalued, especially since travel is not a factor and both teams in a best-of-seven series have the same travel schedule.”
Ben Burns believes each NHL postseason game is unique and doesn’t carry as much momentum from one contest to the next. Teams quickly make adjustments, line changes and roster moves based on the game before and can have a completely different feel when they face off next. A high-scoring Game 1 can produce a low-scoring Game 2 with teams tightening up on defense.
Special teams
Referees do tend to let a lot more slide in the postseason compared to regular season action, so it makes it even more important for teams to capitalize on those man-advantages when the whistle does blow.
“It is absolutely imperative to score on the power play, in order to discourage opponents from taking cheap shots at your best players,” says Schule.
Entering the postseason, the Washington Capitals boast the top power-play attack in the league with 60 goals with the man advantage and a 25.3 power-play percentage. At the bottom of the scale, the Anaheim Ducks boast the lowest power-play percentage in the playoffs at 15.7 percent.
As for killing off those penalties, the Minnesota Wild didn’t get burned much with a man in the box ranking second in the NHL with an 86.3 penalty-kill percentage. The Vancouver Canucks and Penguins followed them, killing off 85.7 and 84.8 percent of their penalties, respectively. The New York Islanders have the worst PK among playoff teams at 77.9 percent.
