PGA Tour Picks: Shell Houston Open Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews
We finally have our first two-time winner of the current PGA Tour golf season as Jimmy Walker won in his hometown of San Antonio last week at the Texas Open. Well, technically Walker lives 35 miles away in Bourne, but he grew up attending the Texas Open, so it had to feel sweet.
Walker took a four-shot lead into Sunday and never was much challenged, shooting a final-round 2-under 70 to finish 11-under 277 and beat Jordan Spieth, another Texan, by four shots. Walker’s putter was on as he led the field in strokes gained: putting as well as going a cumulative 12-under on the par 5s. Walker, who hadn’t played Tour event since the WGC-Cadillac at Doral, also won the Sony Open in January in Hawaii and now leads the PGA Tour with five victories over the past two seasons. Walker played his first 187 events on the Tour without a win. He has now won five times in his last 37 starts. Walker is up to a career-high No. 10 in the world rankings and was originally going to play this week but not surprisingly withdrew.
Walker has a commanding lead in the FedEx Cup points right now if that sort of thing matters to you. Last season, it took 1,769 points to qualify for the Tour Championship; Walker already has 1,650. Spieth has been playing out of his mind of late and moved up to No. 4 in the world rankings. Over the last five months, he has three wins worldwide and eight Top-10 finishes. The most memorable shot of the Texas Open was nearly the rarest of rare: a hole-in-one on a par 4. Aaron Baddeley did hole out on his drive at the par-4 17th from 336 yards on Thursday. However, that was his second shot because he hooked his first drive into the woods and took an unplayable lie, thus returning to the tee.
I didn’t have Walker, who was 20/1 at
Bovada to open, as the winner. However, I did get him for a finishing spot under 17.5 as well as at +240 as the highest-placed finisher against Ryan Palmer, Martin Kaymer, Phil Mickelson and Kevin Na. Also hit on Walker at -130 for a Top 20. On Spieth, I collected at -155 for a Top 10 as well as under 8.5 for a finishing spot and -130 head-to-head against Dustin Johnson. Two guys I liked to win were Zach Johnson (T20) and Jim Furyk (T58). I also got Dustin Johnson at -250 for a Top 20, Na (-115) over Harris English and Gary Woodland (-115) over Sean O’Hair. So pretty solid all around.
So the two-event mini-Texas Swing concludes this week at the Shell Houston Open at the Golf Club of Houston, which will be set up as much as possible to replicate Augusta National. Walker wasn’t the only big name who withdrew this week; so did Henrik Stenson, who would have been a favorite as well. I’m sure they are both already in Augusta. There is one spot open for next week’s Masters and that goes to the winner here if not already qualified.
The past two years, the guy who won hadn’t been eligible for the Masters. The defending champion is Aussie Matt Jones. The finish last year was excellent as Jones drained a 46-foot birdie putt to force a playoff with Matt Kuchar and then holed out from off the green for birdie to beat Kuchar on the same hole. Jones started Sunday six shots out of the lead. That playoff was the 22nd in Houston Open history, trailing only the U.S. Open (33).
In case you are wondering, Tiger Woods isn’t playing this week, but it does appear he will at the Masters. Phil Mickelson (25/1) is in Houston.
PGA Tour Golf Odds: Houston Open Favorites
No surprise that Spieth is the 8/1 favorite . If this wasn’t in Texas, I’m fairly confident he wouldn’t be playing, but he badly wants that first one in his native state. Spieth missed the cut here in 2014.
Kuchar is the 10/1 second favorite. What’s wrong with Mr. Top 10? He has just two in nine events this season, and his last was in late January. Kuchar did look a little better last week with a T15. Prior to that runner-up here last year he was T8 in his last two trips to Houston.
Patrick Reed (14/1), J.B. Holmes (20/1) and Rickie Fowler (22/1) round out the favorites. Reed has a win in Hawaii to his credit this year and lost in a playoff in that Tampa-area tournament in his last start. Reed missed the cut in 2013 in his only trip to this tournament. Holmes was a runner-up here in 2009, had a T8 in 2012 and T12 last year. I thought Fowler was going to have the type of year Spieth and Walker are. But Fowler has just one Top 10 in six events. He was sixth here a year ago.
PGA Tour Picks: Houston Open Expert Betting Predictions
No Sportsbook finishing positions posted as of this writing. For a Top-10 finish, I like Spieth (-170), Reed (+115), Sergio Garcia (+225) and Holmes (+185). I don’t like Lefty for a Top 10 but do a Top 20 (+110). Might was well go with a playoff as the winning margin at +250.
Take Lee Westwood at +188 as the top Englishman and Aaron Baddeley at +350 as the top Aussie. I also like Westwood (+350) as the highest-placed finisher against Keegan Bradley, Bill Haas, Jason Kokrak and Jones (all +350 as well). Sergio’s my guy for top European at +500.
Head-to-head, lean Reed (-120) over Kuchar (-110), Mickelson (-110) over Fowler (-120), Sergio (-130) over Justin Rose (even money), Holmes (-115) over Ryan Moore (-115), and Bradley (-115) over Haas (-115).
I’m taking Sergio at +2500 as the best value to win. He had the 36-hole lead last year on his way to a T3. I actually may throw a few dollars on Lefty at +2500 as well as he won here in 2011 and usually gets his focus back ahead of the Masters.
Golf Betting: Shell Houston Open Preview and Picks
By Matt Fargo
The Shell Houston Open takes center stage this week back in its familiar spot the week before the Masters after preceding the first Major by two weeks two years ago. Taking place at the Golf Club of Houston in Humble, Texas, this is the final tuneup before players head to Augusta next week and the field is again a strong one. Last week at the Valero Texas Open, we won with Jimmy Walker who became the first multi-tournament winner this year and won for the fifth time the last two seasons.
As mentioned, the field this week is strong headlined by last week’s winner Jimmy Walker as well as top ten players Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose. In total, 14 of the top 30 in the OWGR are playing this week. Other notables include Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson. Spieth is the short favorite at +725 with Walker, Kuchar and Reed coming in at +1,300, +1,600 and +1,700 respectively.
Matt Kuchar (+1,600) has been average over his last four starts with a T15 being his best finish but the good news is that it came last week. He has not missed a cut since last May and since then he has four top fives. If anyone is overdue for a win, it is him and why not here considering in three starts since 2010, he has not finished outside the top ten. This includes a playoff loss last year on a Matt Jones chip in.
J.B. Holmes (+2,600) took last week off after missing the cut at Bay Hill and the rest should do him good. He is having a solid season with a pair of runner up finishes at the Farmers and the Cadillac Championship to go along with another top ten at Pebble Beach. After missing the cut here in 2007, he lost in a playoff in 2009 to Paul Casey and has finished T8 and T12 in his two other starts here since then.
We will take a stab with Phil Mickelson (+3,000) even though he has not been up to his true form this season. His best finish is a T17 at the Honda Classic and he is coming off a T30 last week no thanks to a Sunday 76. He is one of four players in the field this week that has made the cut each of the last five years here and he has the best finishing average at just over 13th. He won here in 2011.
We had Jason Kokrak (+4,500) last week and while he never really challenged the leaders, he once again played solid, consistent golf with a T11 finish. That backed up a T7 and a T6 in his previous two starts and despite never having won, he looks like he will break out sometime soon. While he did miss the cut here last year, he finished solo ninth in 2013 so this could be the breakthrough place.
While Mickelson has the best finishing average the last five years, Cameron Tringale (+7,000) has the best finishing average the last three years at just a tick over 9th. This includes a T8 in 2012 and a solo fourth last year. While he hasn’t done anything spectacular this season, he has just one missed cut in 2015 and in those two top six finishes here, he came in with very similar form.
Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the Shell Houston Open – All for 1 Unit
Matt Kuchar (+1,600)
J.B. Holmes (+2,600)
Phil Mickelson (+3,000)
Jason Kokrak (+4,500)
Cameron Tringale (+7,000)
2015 Record to date after 11 events: +55.5 Units.
Hyundai Tournament of Champions -5 Units
Humana Challenge +24 Units
Waste Management Phoenix Open -5 Units
Farmers Insurance Open +8.5 Units
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am +18 Units
Northern Trust Open -5 Units
Honda Classic -5 Units
WGC-Cadillac Championship +16 Units
Valspar Championship -5 Units
Arnold Palmer Invitational -5 Units
Valero Texas Open +19 Units
