COMPS
Scott Spreitzer
Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks
No arguing which team has been in better current form, but I expect the Hawks to salvage the final game of their 4-game homestand. Atlanta has dropped 3 straight at Philips Arena after winning 8 of their first 9. Not having Al Horford on the floor has certainly hampered this team's progress, but I'm betting they're catching the Pacers at the right moment. First of all, Joe Johnson understands he must pick up the slack and he has dominated the Pacers, averaging over 23 ppg in 9 outings. His team has covered each their last 4 home meetings with Indiana and they're 8-1 SU in Johnson's 9 career outings. Indiana's starters had to spend some energy last night, holding on for a 5-point win over Utah. The Pacers enter this one having covered just 6 of their last 24 when playing with no days off between games. The Pacers stomped Atlanta in the most recent meeting, which puts the Hawks in a solid 55-27 ATS league-wide situation. You play on favorites when they're in revenge of a double-digit road loss, providing both teams are playing .600 to .750 basketball. This is an important night for the Hawks and I believe they'll come through with a spread covering win. I'm laying the points with Atlanta on Wednesday.
<hr>Marc Lawrence
LSU @ Vanderbilt
PICK: LSU
The improved Bengals (12-9), who have already won more games this year than they did all of last season (11-21), were sent packing from the SEC tourney by the Commodores in 2011. Not only does series history (11-7 ATS, including 7-4 ATS with revenge) suggest payback is in order tonight in Memorial Gym but so does Vandy’s 1-4 ATS log at home versus a conference foe with last-season tourney revenge. Better yet for LSU backers is the fact that the third-place Commies arrive in the middle of a second-place Florida/first-place Kentucky revenge sandwich. Expect Vandy’s energy to be sapped after Saturday's loss in Gainesville here in Nashville tonight… at least that’s what their 3-7 ATS log after focusing on Florida tells us. A solid take. We recommend a 1-unit play on LSU.
<hr>Sean Murphy
Drake @ Illinois State
PICK: Under 130
We won with the 'over' in the first matchup between these two teams this season, but even after a 74-point first half, it didn't come easy, as we needed a late scoring flurry to cash our ticket.
Drake finds itself in a tough spot right now, with arguably its best player, Ben Simons, sidelined with mono.
The Bulldogs didn't fare well in their first game without their star, scoring a season-low 39 points in a blowout loss to Missouri State on Saturday. Keep in mind, they had struggled in their previous game as well, putting up only 54 points in a loss at Indiana State.
This isn't an ideal spot for the Drake offense to bounce back, as Illinois State has proven to be a tough defensive foe at home, where it allows just 56.9 points per game on 37.4% shooting.
I've called the Redbirds a 'flaky' team on more than one occasion this season, due to their inconsistent nature. They're coming off back-to-back solid performances offensively, although one of those came in a runaway win for Creighton one week ago tonight (we cashed with the Blue Jays in that 28-point rout).
It's worth noting that the Redbirds have scored over 70 points in back-to-back games, as they've yet to accomplish that feat in three consecutive contests this season.
70 could be a key number for Illinois State in this one, at least as far as the total is concerned.
Note that the Redbirds have broken the 70-point barrier only once in their last four home games, and that came on Saturday against Bradley, the worst team in the Missouri Valley Conference. That contest still only reached 126 total points, as Illinois State put forth a terrific defensive effort, holding the Braves to only 48 points.
I say that 70 points will be a key number in relation to the total, as I don't expect Drake to break 60. It's been a struggle for the Bulldogs to get into the 60s on the road in MVC play at the best of times this season. Now without Simons in the lineup, that task becomes even tougher. Note that the 'under' is 4-1-1 in Drake's six conference road games so far this season.
The 'over' has cashed in each of the last four meetings in this series, but we're dealing with a different set of circumstances tonight. Drake knows that scoring is going to be an issue, and should do all it can to keep the number of possessions down in this one.
Illinois State doesn't mind playing that type of game, as despite what we've seen over its last two contests, it is by no means an offensive powerhouse. The Redbirds have held the opposition to 54 points or less in three of their last four wins. Strong defensive play has been a key to any success they've had this season.
<hr>Nick "The BookieKiller" Parsons
Flames @ Sharks
PICK: Over
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":
The Calgary Flames are 24-22-3-4 overall this year; they're 14-8-1-1 at home and just 10-14-2-3 on the road; they're coming off a 3-2 shootout loss at Anaheim on Sunday, which was on the heels of a 3-1 win over the Blackhawks at home three nights previous.
The O/U is 19-31-3.
“We had a couple of chances to win, but it’s not easy with their goalie,” Flames netminder Mikka Kiprusoff said.
Calgary remains just three points out of a playoff spot though with 29-games left in the season, and captain Jerome Iginla believe's his team has a legitimate shot at finally making it to the post-season after missing for two years straight:
"We've played Detroit," Iginla reasoned. "We've played Vancouver. We've played San Jose. And we've played them lately. And while we respect them, we definitely feel we can beat them ...
"I like it in Calgary. I believe we can be in the playoffs and have a shot."
On the other bench: The Sharks are 29-15-3-3 overall this year, including 17-8-2-0 at home and 12-7-1-3 on the road; after three straight victories, they're coming off a 5-3 loss at Phoenix on Saturday.
The O/U is 23-27-0.
“It wasn’t lack of offense,” said Sharks coach Todd McLellan. “We had a number of chances and ended up with three at the end. We were not competitive at the times we needed to be competitive.”
Bottom line: Both teams push the pace of this game after lacklustre efforts; you may want to consider a second look at the "over" in this contest.
<hr>David Chan
Hurricanes @ Ducks
PICK: Under
I bet value where I see it and expect this to be a tightly checked, low-scoring affair.
The 20-25-9 Carolina Hurricanes storm into Anaheim to take on the 20-24-8 Ducks.
Carolina is coming off a hard-fought 2-1 win over Los Angeles on Saturday.
It was Jeff Skinner's goal 3:02 into the final frame that was the difference; Jiri Tlutsy also tallied a marker, while goaltender Cam Ward had 24-saves:
“They came out ready to play, and it seemed like they had a step on us in the first period,” Ward said. “We weren’t too pleased with it after the first intermission, but once again, we were able to turn it around. We knew that they had some travel, so we made it difficult on them in the second and third.”
Note that Carolina entered that game with a brutal 1-13-0 record when trailing in the first period.
Also note that Ward had posted a stellar 1.88 GAA over his previous 10-home contests.
The Ducks on the other hand are coming off a 3-2 win over the Flames on Monday night.
Niklas Hagman finally beat Mikka Kiprusoff in the eighth round of the shootout:
“He’s a goalie I have practiced a lot against,” said Hagman, who used to play for the Flames. “I don’t have that many moves, and he knows my go-to moves. I tried to switch a little bit. I wanted to come with good speed and shoot it. Luckily for me, he probably thought I was going to go with my backhand.”
Jonas Hiller had 24-saves:
“We really needed those two points,” said Hiller. “It wasn’t an easy game. Both teams played really hard. It was about time we won a shootout.”
Two low-scoring, hard-hitting teams going head to head, with above average goaltenders; all signs point to a low-scoring affair!
