Wednesday 1st Inning - 49-29 +$1022.75 (20.46u)

[lazzonya]

hate when this happens... ...back to the well

houston @ florida (7:10ET) - YES - $35.00/$36.75 (+105)

a run is scored in the 1st inning of houston games 62.00% of the time
stros score a run in the 1st inning in 34.00% of those
stros allow a run in the 1st inning in 41.33% of those

a run is scored in the 1st inning of florida games 54.00% of the time
marlins score a run in the 1st inning in 34.00% of those
marlins allow a run in the 1st inning in 36.00% of those

in backe's 29 starts, a run has been scored 17 times - he's allowed 13 (44.83%)
in nolasco's 28 starts, a run has been scored 20 times - he's allowed 14 (50.00%)

backe has allowed 6 runs in 16 road starts (37.50%)
nolasco has allowed 5 runs in 12 home starts (41.67%)

FLA's 1-4 are 1 for 9 off backe (.111)
HOU's 1-4 are 6 for 16 off nolasco (.375)

this play would be doubled if it wasn't a repeat of last night.

current league averages are 51.50%, 30.60%, & 30.58%

leans:

los angeles @ pittsburgh - YES (+105) - LA's 1 thru 4 hitters are 10 for 20 (.500) off duke (and manny has never faced him).

Current Leaders/Trends:

astros - 62.00% of their games have a run scored in the 1st inning
giants - 43.05% of their games have a run scored in the 1st inning
mets - score a run in the 1st inning 44.67% of games
orioles - allow a run in the 1st inning 41.89% of games
pirates - score a run in the 1st innning 25.17% of games
giants - allow a run in the 1st inning 22.52% of games

YTD:

49-29 +$1022.75 (20.46 units)

Current Streak:

1-0 +$52.50

YTD ROI: 19.18%

a few asked for my breakdown:

$35 plays - 13/7 - 65.00%
$50 plays - 23/14 - 62.16%
$75 plays - 8/6 - 57.14%
$100 plays - 4/2 - 66.67%
$125 plays - 1/0 - 100.00%
$150 plays - 0/0 - N/A

 

[WorldNumberOne]

i think their is serious money to be made tracking this prop.

i believe it to be the most predictable of any baseball wagers you can make.

i too will track everything possibly related to first inning stats starting next season.

congrats on cracking $ 1000.00

 

[lazzonya]

i think their is serious money to be made tracking this prop.

i believe it to be the most predictable of any baseball wagers you can make.

i too will track everything possibly related to first inning stats starting next season.

congrats on cracking $ 1000.00

biggest problem i see is the 30 juice (at least at bookmaker).

i play a lot of dogs, so it tends to help me out, but if you are looking at a lot of favorites it could hurt you.

peace

lazzonya

 

[BOOTZY]

Thanks Lazz Love Your Work

 

[lazzonya]

Thanks Lazz Love Your Work

thanks bootz.

let's do this.

 

[A10Expert]

I tracked this for most of the year, but not as completely as you did L, the thing I kept stubbing on was the -165 shit with Texas, now Baltimore. I think dogs are great in this prop as well.

 

[FearTheRaven]

these plays are ca$h, thanks again tonight

 

[lazzonya]

I tracked this for most of the year, but not as completely as you did L, the thing I kept stubbing on was the -165 shit with Texas, now Baltimore. I think dogs are great in this prop as well.

texas has cooled off considerably in the 2nd half of the season. they were the best 1st inning team in baseball by far the 1st half.

i don't think i've bet them YES all season because of the huge lines (no value).

 

[yanni_gogolak]

thanks again!

 

[sdf]

thanks!