College Betting Recap - Week 10
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
Overall Notes
College Football Week 10 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 41-13
Against the Spread 34-19-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 24-29
Against the Spread 21-31-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 23-29-1
The largest underdog to cash
Wyoming (+15, ML +500) at Fresno State, 45-10
The largest favorite to cash
Baylor (-34.5) vs Kansas, 60-14
Top 25 Notes
-- Mississippi fell for the second straight week, and it was another heartbreaker that came down to the end, losing 35-31. Ole Miss opened the season 6-0-1 ATS through the first seven games, but they're 0-2 SU/ATS over the past two weeks. The 'over' also hit for the first time since Sept. 13 for the Rebs, mainly due to a defensive breakdown. Ole Miss had allowed an average of just 10.5 points per game (PPG) through their first eight games, and more than 15 points just twice.
-- Ole Miss was just one of two Top 10 teams to lose straight up. At least Ole Miss lost to a fellow Top 5 teams. Georgia is searching for answers after leaving Jacksonville with a 38-20 loss despite being a double-digit favorite. Florida picked up a much-needed win.
-- East Carolina stumbled hard at Temple, making several costly mistakes. The Pirates actually outgained the Owls 432-135 in total yards, but five lost fumbles was the key stat. After starting out 4-0 ATS, the Pirates are now 0-4 ATS over the past four outings.
-- Notre Dame and Navy hooked up in Landover, Md. for a 49-39 barn burner. The Irish allowed a total of 60 points through the first five games, but they have given up at least 31 points in each of the past three, giving up an average of 37.7 points per outing.
-- The game of the day might have been in Morgantown, as Texas Christian just edged West Virginia 31-30 in a battle between two hot teams. While the Horned Frogs won, they failed to cover for the first time in eight tries this season.
Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
-- The ACC might not like it, but Florida State is the banner carrier. If they lose, the league has no shot at a spot in the four-game playoff. The Seminoles started very slow at Louisville Thursday, but came back to not only win, but cover, too. That's a rarity, as the Seminoles were 1-6 ATS coming in. ... N.C. State picked up its first conference win of the season, and first since 2012, winning at Syracuse. While wins might be sparse, the Wolfpack is 5-2 ATS over the past seven. ... Georgia Tech roughed up Virginia 35-10. The Ramblin' Wreck is now 4-1-1 ATS in past six meetings with the Hoos. ... Duke outlasted Pittsburgh for a 51-48 double-overtime win. The Blue Devils lost to the Panthers 58-55 last season, meaning the teams have each scored 106 points against each other in the past two meetings.
-- Things were less chaotic in the Big 12, with the favorite going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, with the Horned Frogs as the lone non-cover. ... Kansas State was a two-touchdown favorite, and they took advantage of Oklahoma State playing without its leading rusher. K-State is now 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. ... Baylor covered the biggest number of the day (-34.5) in a 60-14 win over Kansas. The Bears have hit the 60-point mark in four of their eight games, and they have 40 or more points in six of their eight outings.
-- Ohio State wasn't looking ahead to its huge battle at Michigan State next week. They humped up on Illinois 55-14, easily covering as a four-touchdown favorite. The Illini were unable to carry over momentum after its win against Minnesota last weekend. The Buckeyes have won six in a row, and they're 5-1 ATS since their loss to Virginia Tech Sept. 6. The 'over' has cashed in seven straight for OSU. ... Michigan might not be having its best season, but they're still not down far enough to lose to Indiana. The Wolverines have beaten the Hoosiers 19 straight times.
-- The late-night Pac-12 game is never dull. Utah misfired on a field goal in overtime, and Arizona State took advantage, winning 19-16. The Sun Devils claimed first place in the Pac-12 South Division as a result. ... UCLA posted a 17-7 win over Arizona, and the most shocking part of the result might be that the total was set at 71.5, but only 24 total points were scored. ... Many might have missed it, but California earned a road win and cover at Oregon State. Cal's win ended a 1-6 ATS run at Oregon State, and the favorite has cashed in each of the past four meetings.
-- Texas A&M stepped out of conference, and they played without QB Kenny Hill who was suspended for two games. They barely held off Louisiana-Monroe as a 32-point favorite, looking uninspired in a 21-16 win. The Aggies haven't covered in five games dating back to Sept. 20. ... Top-ranked Mississippi State held on for a hard-fought 17-10 win at home against Arkansas, failing to cover back-to-back games for the first time this season. ... Vanderbilt suddenly finds itself as a cover king. They started out 0-3 ATS this season, but have covered five of their past six after topping Old Dominion 42-28.
Mid-Major Report
-- In Conference USA play, Rice won 31-17 at Florida International, staying hot. Not only have the Owls won five in a row, but they have covered in each outing. The over has cashed in three straight for Rice, and five of the past six. ... Louisiana Tech shellacked Western Kentucky by a 59-10 count. The Bulldogs improved to 7-2 ATS this season.
-- There were just two games in the Mid-American Conference this week, as the league has two games scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 4, and another two set for Wednesday, Nov. 5. ... Western Michigan routed Miami-Ohio 41-10, covering for the eighth consecutive game. ... Central Michigan won 38-7 at Eastern Michigan. The Chips have now covered in four of the past five, and the 'under' is also 4-1 in their past five games.
-- The Mountain West had one of the biggest shockers of the day. Wyoming rolled into Fresno State as a 15-point underdog and they blasted the Bulldogs 45-17. And this game was also a bad beat, too. (see below) ... Utah State hammered Hawaii 35-14, as the Warriors have now lost three straight games, including back-to-back games in the islands. Hawaii started out 3-0 ATS, but they're 1-4-1 ATS over the past six.
-- After a week off, New Mexico State resumed Sun Belt action. They fell to Texas State 37-29, but the 'over' hit for the Aggies again. The over is 7-1 in the past eight for NMSU. ... Louisiana-Lafayette has won four in a row, and they have covered three straight after its 19-9 win over South Alabama. ... Georgia Southern won 42-10 over Troy Thursday, picking up their sixth consecutive victory. They're ineligible for a bowl as they transition to FBS. But they are not taking their foot off the gas peddle, and they have now covered eight of their nine games this season.
Bad Beats
-- 'Under' bettors (58) were feeling good through three quarters in Wyoming-Fresno State, as there were just 31 total points, including a scoreless third quarter. However, the two sides combined for 31 points in the fourth quarter to just push the total over, including a Fresno State score with just 1:25 left.
-- Idaho ticket holders couldn't believe it. The Vandals were getting 15 points, and were down just 30-28 with 7:41 to go. But Arkansas State scored a pair of rushing touchdowns with 76 seconds, turning a potential Idaho cover and possible straight-up win into an ATS loss.
-- Purdue appeared to be in line for a cover as a three-touchdown dog, down 28-14 to Nebraska. However, the Huskers found the end zone with 2:00 left to turn Purdue cover tickets into either a loss or push depending on your shop. Either way, it stung quite a bit.
-- If you had Utah on the moneyline, ouch. They went overtime with Arizona State, and had the ball first in OT. The kicker for the Utes misfired on his first try, but a timeout called before the attempt gave him a second shot. He misfired again, giving the Sun Devils the ball. They converted a field goal and turned a potential straight-up win for Utah into a losing ticket.