Wednesday 10/5/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Post your request, Comments or concerns here.
Good luck on all your plays.

When not viewing the service plays.
Make sure to enjoy the rest of what the RX has to offer.

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World Cup Th 6Oct 19:45
AustriavWales
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KEY STAT: Wales lost only once in their last qualifying campaign

EXPERT VERDICT: Both sides look stronger in attack than they do in defence and this could be a game full of goals at both ends. After a disappointing Euro 2016 Marcel Koller’s men recorded a 2-1 victory in Georgia and could prove a dangerous opposition for the Welsh, who are still buzzing after their semi-final run at the Euros.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
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World Cup Th 6Oct 19:45
IrelandvGeorgia
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KEY STAT: Ireland have won all seven meetings against Georgia since 2002

EXPERT VERDICT: Georgia haven’t been pulling up any trees recently, losing five of their last eight international games, including going down against Austria in their World Cup qualifying opener. The visitors haven’t scored more than once in their last five matches either and Ireland should be home bankers.

RECOMMENDATION: Ireland
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World Cup Sa 8Oct 17:00
EnglandvMalta
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KEY STAT: Malta have conceded more than three goals just once in 11 competitive games

EXPERT VERDICT: England left it late to secure a well-deserved 1-0 victory away to Slovakia in their opening World Cup qualifier but should be more comfortable at home to Malta in Gareth Southgate’s first match in the Three Lions hotseat. Sam Allardyce’s dismissal came out of the blue but is unlikely to damage the team’s prospects in the short term.

RECOMMENDATION: England to win 3-0
 

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World Cup Sa 8Oct 19:45
ScotlandvLithuania
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KEY STAT: Germany and England are the only teams Scotland have lost to at home in the last three years

EXPERT VERDICT: Gordon Strachan’s side were aided by Malta having to play the final half an hour with ten men but the 5-1 success was merited and they should have another comfortable night against Lithuania, who can hardly be described as a member of Europe’s elite. They have won just two of their last 17 matches and Scotland should be able to keep a clean sheet against one of the poorest attacks on the continent.

RECOMMENDATION: Scotland to win 2-0
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Wednesday’s game

Arkansas State is 0-4, losing last game to I-AA Central Arkansas; they’re -6 in turnovers last two games, have run ball for only 60.3 yds/game last three games. Red Wolves, who were 44-21 the last five years, are 3-6 as home underdogs the last 10 years. Georgia Southern is 6-2 as a road favorite, in 2+ years as a I-A team; Eagles lost last game 49-31 at Western Michigan, but do have a 24-9 win at South Alabama this year. Home teams, favorites are both 3-3 vs spread in Sun Belt games so far this season.
 
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Tech Trends - Week 6
By Bruce Marshall

Wednesday, Oct. 5

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at ARKANSAS STATE... Ark State off very slow, 0-4 SU and vs. line. Now no covers last five since late 2015. Red Wolves only 3-8 last 11 vs. line. Eagles 6-2 vs. line last 8 away from Statesboro.

Georgia Southern, based on team trends.
 
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At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey

We are now just 30 days away from the Breeders’ Cup which is coming up on Nov. 4-5 at Santa Anita. There are a dozen Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” races to be decided between Friday and Sunday.

We saw an amazing training feat on Saturday morning as Aiden O’Brien saddled the top three finishers of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) at Chantilly which was won by the filly Found, who won last yeas’ Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1).

Longshots Highland Reel and Order of St. George ran second and third. Postponed was the beaten favorite in the Arc and is unlikely to make the trip to the U.S. according to his trainer Roger Varien.

Found seems likely to return to defend her title and Highland Reel may make the trip too. The colt has already made one trip to the U.S., winning the 2015 Secretariat (G1) at Arlington Park.

I made him my choice in the Arc and he was sitting at a generous 24-1. However, he washed out badly and despite the commentator on television stating that was not unusual, it was enough to me to jump off and go with Order of St. George. Found won at a very generous 9-1.

Flintshire remains the early betting favorite for the Turf in early Turf wagering despite coming up short in Saturday’s Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) at Belmont Park.

The six-year-old won his first three starts after landing with the Chad Brown barn but did not care for the yielding turf on Saturday and had to settle for second behind gate to wire winner Ectot.

Flintshire will get firmer ground at Santa Anita next month and seems likely to bounce back with a better effort, but at +125 I am going to take a good look at the Euros that come over from across the pond.

Top Contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) Odds:
Flintshire +125
Postponed +350
Found +750
Highland Reel +950
New Bay +1300
Time Test +1300
The Pizza Man +1400
Da Big Hoss +1500
Us Army Ranger +1500
Dartmouth +1700
Deauville +1700


Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Md $40,000 (12:55 ET)
#4 Mr. Sam 5-1
#5 A Trip to Lourdes 8-1
#7 Apollo Eleven 3-1
#3 Foggy Mountain Cat 7-2

Analysis: Mr. Sam stalked the early pace and did not have any punch left late in a fifth place finish last out as the beaten favorite in his second career start. He was a good third two back in his debut going seven furlongs on the turf here, sent off at 7-1 in a field of 12. He was claimed out of his last outing by the Gargan barn that is 21% winners first off the claim. Not a great turf pedigree, by Harlan's Holiday out of a Bernardini mare, her first foal to race. But with just two starts under his belt appears to have more upside than any of these.

A Trip to Lourdes finished evenly in a fourth place finish last out in his turf debut going seven panels. he now stretches out to a route for the first time here for the Kimmel barn that is 18% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners form sprint to route. He is by Golden Missile out of a Talc mare that has dropped eight winners, including one turf winner. The stretch out should suit this guy and the 8-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 3,4,5,7
TRI: 4,5 / 3,4,5,7 / 2,3,4,5,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 7 Clm $35,000N2L (4:13 ET)
#11 Special Ops 5-1
#3 On Tap 6-1
#2 Second Mate 8-1
#5 Refer 3-1

Analysis: Special Ops prompted the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up finish last out against $25,000 non-winners of three over the turf here. The gelding was claimed out of the race by the Cox barn that is 24% winners first off the claim. Two back this gelding as beaten just a nose in a tough beat at the Spa going a mile. I like the jock switch here to Saez who is off to a good start at the meeting.

On Tap tracked the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up finish last out against $50,000 non-winners of three in the mud in a race washed off the turf. He was eighth in his lone start on turf and willing to give this guy another look on the weeds. He is out of the stakes winner Fantastic Shirl ($251,505) who has dropped four other winners and three have won on turf. The Rice barn is 19% winners moving runners from dirt to turf.

Wagering
WIN: #11 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 3,11 / 2,3,5,11
TRI: 3,11 / 2,3,5,11 / 2,3,5,7,11

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #5 A Trip to Lourdes 8-1
R7: #2 Second Mate 8-1
R8: #4 Stay the Night 10-1

Good luck today!
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Post: 12:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 57 - Purse:$3300 - FIVE YEAR OLDS AND UNDER N/W 1 PM LIFE
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 1 BUSTERANDME 5/2
# 3 SULTRY SUSAN 3/1
# 5 OUTRAGEOUSLY BEST 4/1

BUSTERANDME sure does look ready to score. This gathering could be controlled by this colt. One look at the avgerage TrackMaster Speed Rating will prove that. This horse looks strong considering the high class figures. Don't toss out of any exotics. Certainly did like this colt's last race. Ran a strong 67 speed figure. Major contender. SULTRY SUSAN - Achieved a 58 TrackMaster SR last time out. A duplicate affair here should get the victory in this contest. This harness racer will have to be a wager, based on the great driver/trainer win rate. OUTRAGEOUSLY BEST - The group gives this race horse a great chance to take this race, class ratings are tops in the group of animals. Is a clear-cut win contender given the 63 speed rating from her most recent outing.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $14650 Class Rating: 88

FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 21 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 5 ALLOWED 3 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 GARBOSA 4/5

# 3 CLAUDANIS 9/5

# 2 LADY MAITE 10/1

GARBOSA is my choice. Has been close up at the finishing post most every time recently. Earning some nice paychecks in dirt route races. Has been running in the most competitive company of the group recently. CLAUDANIS - Rosario has a win percent of 26 over the last 30 days. Ought to come out very solid - I have liked the way this filly has moved sharply to the lead recently. LADY MAITE - Must be in condition if the handler is bringing her back so quickly.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Turf. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 81

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 5 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 3 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 4 BRALIN'S GRACE 12/1

# 10 THURGOOD 30/1

# 12 CODRINGTON COLLEGE (IRE) 8/1

My pick in this race is BRALIN'S GRACE especially at 12/1. Garnered a quite good Equibase Speed Figure last time out. THURGOOD - Don't let this gelding slip past you. Could score at a big price. CODRINGTON COLLEGE (IRE) - Is a very solid contender based on numbers earned as of late under today's conditions. With a nice Equibase class rating average of 91, has one of the best class advantages in this field.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 15 - Post: 10:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$5000 - NON WINNERS $2500 IN LAST 5 STARTS THAT ARE N/W $27,500 IN 2016. NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER NORTHFIELD TRAINER CHANGE HN 3 J.TOSKA TO B. ZUBKOFF
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 1 NORTHERN RIVER 9/5
# 2 CRAIG MICHAEL 5/2
# 6 MOTOWN MOE 5/2

After thorough analysis by the brain trust, NORTHERN RIVER comes out as the top pick. This trainer, and the driver Merriman, go together like peaches and cream. Their results together are excellent. This horse could get the victory here beginning from the Northfield Park 1 position. Fantastic in the top three stat for Merriman and this harness racer. A really strong likelihood to get the ultimate prize. CRAIG MICHAEL - When the starter calls, nice horses beginning out of the 2 position have more wins than the expected average. This entrant looks very good. Take a good look at the 81 average speed figure. MOTOWN MOE - Wrenn will be looking to take the whole enchilada for this race, has been en fuego in recent times. Win pct this last month is a sparkling 21. With a 80 average class number, this standardbred has one of the most solid class edges in the group.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Meadowlands - Race #3 - Post: 8:00pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#4 KAY TWO (ML=7/2)
#7 DIXIE DANCER (ML=7/2)
#5 CRAZY DAISY (ML=5/1)


KAY TWO - Delacour is solid in grass routes. This equine should have no rationalizations if she doesn't win. Take this advice. When you've got a 1st time starter, take a look at dam stats as much as sire stats. This one's dam has been terrific winning at a 100 pct rate. This conditioner has an ROI of +61 with horses first time out. DIXIE DANCER - You don't need to look any further. This pony has my money. Way too much pace. Using this jockey/conditioner combination is a good move. You have to like this race horse changing from dirt to turf for the first time. She finished on the board on a sluggish dirt track on August 4th. A sign she may take to turf. Faced tougher in the last race at Delaware Park. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this animal on my list of top contenders. CRAZY DAISY - Sacco drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping info to believe this one should have a chance to win at this level. Great average class rating on this horse. Should have the capability to run well on the turf.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SEA HOLIDAY (ML=5/2), #3 SCAT ARB (ML=6/1), #8 DYNATAIL (ML=6/1),

SEA HOLIDAY - I just don't possess a 'use' vibe about this less than sharp equine in this race. SCAT ARB - Just cannot wager on this runner. Didn't show me anything in the last race or on July 16th. DYNATAIL - When scrutinizing today's class rating, she will have to register a much better speed figure than last time out to battle in this turf route.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - KAY TWO - Delacour wins 30 percent of the time with a debut horse. Catch her and cash.
*


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #4 KAY TWO on top if we're getting at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [4,5,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[4,5,7] with [4,5,7] with [1,3,4,5,7] with [1,3,4,5,7] Total Cost: $36
 
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #2 - BELMONT PARK - 1:28 PM EASTERN POST

8½ FURLONGS TURF FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $25,000.00 CLAIMING $38,000.00 PURSE

#1 DOUKAS
#2 ROCKIN ALLI
#7 MAMA JOYCE
#6 FOREVER FOR ALWAYS

#1 DOUKAS has turned in "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her last five outings, hitting the board in four of those "adventures,"including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 4th race back. Jockey Irad Ortiz was in her irons for that win, and is back this afternoon for his 2nd ride, gunning for another "Circle Trip." #2 ROCKIN ALLI, a 5-1 shot, has turned in "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in four straight, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 3rd race back.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #2 - Post: 7:22pm - Maiden Special - 8.3 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $14,100 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#2 SUPER POWER (ML=8/1)
#8 ROBERT J (ML=12/1)
#1 JUDGE HUDSON (ML=8/1)


SUPER POWER - This entrant obviously likes the conditions for today's race. Has notched the highest speed rating on the grass at the distance and surface. Gelding made a nice late run going 7 furlongs on Sep 21st. I have to like his chances stretching out today. ROBERT J - Fadlovich was aboard this colt last time out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. I think Mountaineer Park players know a good thing when they see the rider/handler duo of Fadlovich and Sanchez. Their winning percentage together has been strong. JUDGE HUDSON - This gelding is most likely the strongest stretch runner in the group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 JOYEUX (ML=8/5), #6 LOVE TREE (ML=2/1),

JOYEUX - The result of seventh in the last event shows me that this horse may be going out of form. This probable favorite ran on September 8th and hasn't had a drill after that. LOVE TREE - On a downward moving series. Speed figures keep deteriorating.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #2 SUPER POWER to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip
 
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Northfield: Wednesday 10/5 Analysis + Pick Four Ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

3,4,5 / 4 / 1,2,4,5,6 / 1,4 = $30

Best Bet: CARBON FOOTPRINT (3rd)

Spot Play: MOON IS ALLAGLOW (13th)


Race 1

(4) ST ELIAN'S FIRE trotting mare is fast enough to pull the upset with a good setup. (1) SURE THING twelve-year-old gets the best post and picks up a huge driver change. (2) NINO MARINO doesn't look the best on paper but jumps up with good efforts from time to time.

Race 2

(2) TONOLLI sophomore pacer has lots of room to improve in his second career start. The pacer finds a weak field full of question marks and will offer a nice price. (4) WESTERN DIAL is the only horse in the race with a win on his card. The pacer swooped the field from dead last two back before coming up empty last start; short price. (5) GUN'S WESTERN GIRL filly makes her career debut off an ok qualifier.

Race 3

(1) CARBON FOOTPRINT well bred trotter gets the best post off a nice effort at this level. (2) AISLING is capable against this field but needs a smooth trip. (3) SAY IT BEST has made the most money in the field on the year and has been facing tougher.

Race 4

(2) MISS EMILY D was an easy winner at this level last out. (1) TWINKY might be the only threat to the top choice despite being 1 for 34 on the year. (9) SUNRISE SUNSET didn't miss by much last week against similar.

Race 5

(3) SPARTAN CAN-DO three-year-old pacer went a very good mile last start from the far outside. (1) OH PLEASE lightly raced mare gets the best post off a decent win on the fair circuit. (2) BETTER THAN NEW gelding has yet to win in his career; use underneath.

Race 6

In one of the weakest fields on the card, (1) GOT WHAT IT TAKES gets the best post and shows being competitive at this level. (8) DANNYS MAN is one of the faster pacers in the field but needs to find a way into the race. (2) AT DAYBREAK pacer picks up a significant driver change but is 0 for the year; command a price.

Race 7

(1) DOUBTING TOM seven-year-old owns some back class and should be primed for a better effort third start back off a long layoff. (9) WASHINGTONIAN has yet to get it going this year but if the trotter stays flat he can threaten. (2) VICK VALOR is capable of better especially with the top driver hopping aboard.

Race 8

(3) BURSTING BLAZE drops down in class with a big driver change. (4) SIR HOWEIES Z TAM bumps up in class off a decent effort in the slop. The pacer should be able to compete with his best effort. (5) EXPLODENT has been facing much tougher but has some question marks shipping to the small track.

Race 9

(4) QUEENS LONELY EARL picks up the top driver against an inconsistent field. (5) DREAMING OF LORI has hit the board in six straight at this level but only owns one win on the year. (1) MOONTAN finished a solid second last out and now gets the rail.

Race 10

(5) TOBINS FORTUNE had some sneaky late pace last week and will offer a monster price. (2) TULFRA morning line favorite makes his second start in a new barn but is 0 for the year; use caution. (4) ROUNTUIT BLUEGRASS could be in line for a piece with a good setup.

Race 11

(4) REAL NICE GIRL pacing mare has been knocking on the door and looks to offer a fair price. (1) MIRACLE MATTY has been going some decent miles on the fair circuit and owns a solid win at this track. (5) MACHMETER morning line favorite picks up the top driver but looks to offer low value.

Race 12

(7) CHAMPION'S CLUB might have an excuse last start with the off track. The pacer should offer a much better price this week and owns a win against better on the year. (4) FIXTHEDEFICIT gelding has shown a big burst in his last two. The 5-year-old just needs to ration out his speed for a shot. (2) OUR MCLOVIN had no excuse last week burning cash against similar; command a price.

Race 13

(3) MOON IS ALL AGLOW three-year-old colt makes his career debut off a winning qualifier. The pacer finds a weak field full of question marks. (7) BAD MOONSHINE raced gamely last week from a tough post. If the 3-year-old gets another good spot out of the gate it probably puts him on the ticket. (4) OVERDRIVE gets sent out for a low percentage pilot; use underneath.

Race 14

(1) CYPRESS HILL ROSE just won a few days ago at this level from the toughest post; short price. (4) ICU CHARLIET mare needs to utilize her gate speed for a solid shot to hit the board. (2) RUMORS HAVIT should offer value underneath but needs some racing luck.

Race 15

(6) MOTOWN MOE four-year-old pacer picks back up the top driver in a field with few contenders; fires early. (2) CRAIG MICHAEL should be in a good spot to save some ground before shaking loose late. (1) NORTHERN RIVER morning line favorite has just been racing evenly in his last two; command a price.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Belmont Park (2nd) Saratoga Smoke, 6-1
(6th) Barbie Stones, 7-2


Charles Town (1st) Captivating Ko Ko, 10-1
(8th) Ghostly Truth, 6-1


Delaware Park (3rd) Mirkamurka, 8-1
(6th) Angela's Candy, 7-2


Finger Lakes (4th) Risener, 4-1
(8th) David Rocks, 4-1


Indiana Grand (8th) Still Chief, 8-1
(9th) Annieindy, 5-1


Meadowlands (3rd) Dynatail, 6-1
(5th) Ian Smith, 3-1


Mountaineer (1st) Don't Defy Me, 5-1
(7th) Richard's Tune, 9-2


Penn National (4th) Honor Achieved, 3-1
(8th) Against the Odds, 8-1


Presque Isle Downs (1st) Tango Lima, 5-1
(7th) Dekabrist, 10-1


Remington Park (2nd) Aloneatthebar, 6-1
(8th) Flashy Jewel, 6-1


Thistledown (2nd) Night Patrol, 9-2
(7th) Bold Johnny, 5-1


Woodbine (4th) Please Play Again, 5-1
(7th) Rocco Point, 6-1
 
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National League Wild Card playoff preview and odds: Giants at Mets

San Francisco Giants at New York Mets (A: -110, H: -110, Total: 6)

Madison Bumgarner has etched his name into history as a big-game pitcher and gets another opportunity to prove it when the San Francisco Giants visit the New York Mets in the National League wild-card game Wednesday. The left-hander is 7-3 with a 2.14 ERA in 14 postseason appearances (12 starts) and was MVP of the 2014 World Series.

Bumgarner has also excelled against the Mets in his career, going 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA and .189 batting average against in six career starts. New York right-hander Noah Syndergaard opposes Bumgarner and represented himself fine in his first postseason last year when he went 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA and struck out 26 in 19 innings. The two aces squared off against one another May 1 with Bumgarner pitching six shutout innings in San Francisco's 6-1 victory while Syndergaard gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings. The Mets were a MLB-best 27-13 over the final quarter of the season and look to reach the World Series for the second straight season, while the Giants were 30-42 after the All-Star Game and hope to stage a turnaround as they pursue their fourth straight World Series title in even-numbered years (2010, 2012, 2014).

TV: 8:09 p.m. ET, ESPN

INJURY REPORT:

Giants - SS E. Nunez (Ques Wed, hamstring), RF M. Williamson (60-Day DL, quadricep), RP R. Black (60-Day DL, elbow), RP C. Heston (60-Day DL, oblique).

Mets - SP S. Matz (Out For Season, elbow), SS W. Flores (Out For Season, wrist), SP J deGrom (Out For Season, forearm), 2B N. Walker (Out For Season, back), RP J. Niese (60-Day DL, knee), SP Z. Wheeler (Out For Season, elbow), RF J. Ruggiano (Out For Season, shoulder), SP M. Harvey (Out For Season, shoulder), 3B D. Wright (Out For Season, neck).

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 70's at game-time in Queens. Winds will be light, humidity will be low and there is less than a 1% chance of rain.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (15-9, 2.74 ERA) vs. Mets RH Noah Syndergaard (14-9, 2.60)

Bumgarner won at least 15 games for the fourth time in his career and posted his fourth consecutive sub-3.00 ERA. He wasn't always sharp down the stretch as he gave up four or more runs in four of his last nine starts and is well aware he's need to be in for form in the wild-card game. "It is a winner-take-all game. It's not a series, so that's really all there is to know about it," Bumgarner said at Tuesday's press conference. "You've got to get up there and you've got to have your stuff that day. You've got to have your command. You've got to be on. And that's it."

Syndergaard finished third in the NL in ERA (Bumgarner was fourth) and strikeouts (218) while putting together one of the top all-around seasons in the league. He has a 1-2 record with a 3.66 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in three career starts against the Giants and said he isn't concerned about facing Bumgarner. "That's really outside of my control," Syndergaard said during Tuesday's press conference. "I can't control who I'm facing out there. That's not going to take away from my game or how I'm going to approach their hitters."

TRENDS:

* Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
* Giants are 1-4 in Bumgarner's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
* Mets are 8-0 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
* Mets are 4-1 in Syndergaard's last 5 starts with 7 or more days of rest.
* Over is 6-1 in Giants' last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Over is 7-1 in Mets' last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Under is 7-0 in Syndergaard's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
* Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts vs. Mets.

CONSENSUS: The public is heavily on Madison Bumgarner and the Giants with 57 percent of the wagers on the road team. Over 6 is picking up 57 percent of the total plays.
 
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NL Wild Card - SF at NY

NL Wild Card Betting Preview (TBS, 8:05 p.m.)
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
Wednesday, Oct. 5 from Citi Field

Odds: San Francisco (-110), New York (-110); Total 6

The 2016 MLB Playoffs have finally arrived and like always, they begin with some very big Wildcard games where the loser goes home.

That Wildcard game in the National League should be a beauty between the Giants and Mets as they've both got their #1 pitchers on the hill to try and advance. Odds makers have opened up this game as basically a pick'em, but does one team actually have a decided edge?

These two teams met seven times over the course of the year and it was the Mets who won the season series 4-3. New York took two of three at home and split a four-game set out west to earn that mark.

2016 Head-to-Head Matchups (New York 4-3, Over 6-1)

New York vs. San Francisco (AT&T Park)
Aug. 21 - Mets 2 Giants 0 (Under 7.5)
Aug. 20 - Mets 9 Giants 5 (Over 8.5)
Aug. 19 - Mets 1 Giants 8 (Over 7.5)
Aug. 18 - Mets 7 Giants 10 (Over 6)

San Francisco vs. New York (Citi Field)
May 1 - Giants 6 Mets 1 (Over 6)
Apr. 30 - Giants 5 Mets 6 (Over 7)
Apr. 29 - Giants 1 Mets 13 (Over 7)

However, the only time the two projected starters for this Wildcard game – Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard – met, it was that lone home loss for the Mets, as San Francisco salvaged the series finale with a 6-1 victory. Neither Syndergaard or Bumgarner lasted more than six innings that day, but it clearly was the Giants pitcher who had the better day.

Bumgarner went on to lead his team to another win over the Mets later in the year (10-7), but with only five innings pitched that time, it's not like Bumgarner has been at his best vs. New York this season.

Syndergaard responded with a win of his own in San Francisco later in the year and he was much better that time around, throwing eight strong innings of shutout baseball en route to the 2-0 Mets win.

It will be interesting to see which pitcher has the better day in the playoff game, especially since it's winner take all and Bumgarner is the one who's been in that spot a few times before.

From a team perspective, the Mets are in better shape for success here because they are the ones at home and they actually have played much better baseball the last two months.

San Francisco squeaked into this Wildcard spot on the last day of the year after having the best record in baseball at the All-Star break.

That was almost a monumental collapse for the Giants this year and being one of the worst teams in the league since that time doesn't help their cause in this game.

But it's a brand new season in the playoffs and the past experiences the Giants core have gone through will definitely help them here.

Looming for the winner is a date in the NLDS with the Chicago Cubs and while the Cubs would never admit it, they'd prefer to get another crack at the Mets.

It was New York who beat Chicago in the NLCS last year to move onto the World Series and if that's the way this NL Wildcard game goes, we should have two tremendous NLDS series'.

So despite all the lazy analyst talk about this being an 'even' year and that means another successful San Francisco playoff run (they won it all in 2010, 2012, 2014), I'm siding with the home team in this game.

Syndergaard learned from his mistakes the first time out vs. San Francisco and absolutely shut them down the next time he faced them. He's got the more explosive offense behind him too as the Mets can change games with one swing of the bat, from multiple guys, and many of them have had solid success against Bumgarner in the past.

New York also has the better bullpen overall for this game and should this game be tight in the closing innings, I have more faith in the Mets bullpen closing things down.

New York seemingly has most stats in their favor for this game, but because of the Giants pedigree – especially with Bumgarner on the hill – many won't be confident in backing the home side here.

I am though, as the Mets win this game and set up a great 2015 NLCS rematch series with the Chicago Cubs this year.

Best Bet: Take the Mets on the ML

MLB Wild Card History

Betting Trends:

Road Teams have gone 6-2
Favorites have gone 5-3
The 'over/under' has gone 4-4

2015 Wild Card Results
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Houston (-110) at N.Y. Yankees 3-0 Favorite Under (7)
NL Chicago (-125) at Pittsburgh 4-0 Favorite Under (5.5)

2014 Wild Card Results
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Oakland at Kansas City (+100) 9-8 (12) Underdog Over (6.5)
NL San Francisco (-110) at Pittsburgh 8-0 Favorite Over (6.5)

2013 Wild Card Results
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Tampa Bay (-110) at Cleveland 6-2 Favorite Over (6.5)
NL Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-145) 4-0 Favorite Under (7)

2012 Wild Card Results
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Baltimore (+210) at Texas 5-2 Underdog Under 9
NL St. Louis (+155) at Atlanta 6-3 Underdog Over 6.5
 
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Preview: Giants (87-75) at Mets (87-75)

Game: 1
Venue: Citi Field
Date: October 05, 2016 8:09 PM EDT

NEW YORK -- Baseball's regular season is a novel, one that was full of melodramatic twists and turns this season for the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants. When the Mets host the Giants in the National League wild card game Wednesday night at Citi Field, the novel becomes a Choose Your Own Adventure, with the season hanging on every turn of the page.

"Tomorrow's different -- I have not been in a one-game win-all scenario before," said Mets manager Terry Collins, who began his managerial career in 1981. "We'll have 25 guys out there, and if we need to, we'll use all 25 to win that game."

The wild card game is familiar to the Giants, whose lineup Wednesday will likely feature six players -- including starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner -- who started the 2014 NL wild card game. Bumgarner threw a four-hit shutout in an 8-0 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates that jump-started San Francisco's run to a third World Series title in five years.

"You're just jumping right into it -- this huge, emotional, intense, all-in, all-or-nothing game," Giants outfielder Hunter Pence said. "It's definitely a wild ride. That's why they call it the wild card."

Bumgarner will oppose New York's ace, right-hander Noah Syndergaard, as the Giants and Mets battle for the opportunity to face the top-seeded Chicago Cubs in the NL Division Series.

Both the Mets and Giants finished 87-75 -- the Mets earned home-field advantage by winning the season series 4-3 -- but they reached the finish line in decidedly different fashions.

With most of their rotation and nearly all of their Opening Day lineup ravaged by injury, the reigning NL champion Mets were 5 1/2 games behind in the race for the NL's second wild card on Aug. 19 and 61-62 after beating the Giants in San Francisco the next day. It was the latest a wild card team has been under .500 since the 2005 Astros were also 61-62 after 123 games.

But the Mets had the best record in baseball (26-13) the rest of the way to reach the playoffs for a second straight season for only the second time in franchise history.

Rookie pitchers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo went 9-2 with a 2.44 ERA in 15 games (14 starts) during the Mets' season-ending run, which happened with six Opening Day starters either already sidelined for the season or playing part-time roles due to injury or ineffectiveness.

Collins spoke throughout the season about how important it was for his team not to ride the daily rollercoaster. But did the season ever feel as chaotic from the inside as it looked from outside?

"In the manager's room it did," Collins said with a grin. "We tried not to let it spread to the clubhouse too bad. But there's so much maneuvering that we had to do.

"We know that certainly the planes from (the Mets' Triple-A affiliate) Vegas to here were (used) a lot. There's a lot of red-eyes that were used. But it all comes with the territory."

The Giants, meanwhile, led the NL West by as many as eight games on June 26 and reached the All-Star Break with the best record in baseball at 57-33. But they went just 30-42 the rest of the way -- the worst post-All-Star Break record for a playoff team since the wild card was implemented in 1995 -- and fell out of first place for good with a 2-0 loss to the Mets on Aug. 21.

"As good as we were in the first half, we had our hiccups the second half," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said.

The bullpen, long a strength for the Giants, blew nine ninth-inning leads, including five in September. San Francisco finally steadied itself over the final week, when it went 5-1 to stave off the St. Louis Cardinals by a game.

"To be honest, I think we all were trying to figure out what's going on here," Bochy said. "But that's what you have to deal with during the baseball season."

Now the Giants hope to enjoy some familiar success with a pitcher who deals with the postseason better than anyone in Bumgarner, who is 7-3 with a 2.14 ERA in 14 playoff games (12 starts). He posted a 1.03 ERA in seven games (six starts) in the 2014 postseason, which ended with Bumgarner throwing five shutout innings to earn the save in Game 7 of the World Series against the Kansas City Royals.

In addition, Bumgarner is 4-0 with a 0.62 ERA in four career starts at Citi Field.

"He's got this special -- this 'it factor' and this incredible competitiveness that's just so beautiful to watch and to be a part of and to play behind," Pence said.

The Mets will counter with Syndergaard, who proved ready for the big stage last fall by coming out of the bullpen to pitch a scoreless seventh inning in the decisive Game 5 of the NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers before winning Game 2 of the NLCS against the Cubs and Game 3 of the World Series against the Royals.

While Bumgarner dominates at Citi Field. Syndergaard -- who made his final regular season start last Tuesday -- has thrived when pitching on extra rest: He has a 2.51 ERA in 16 career starts made on more than five days' rest.

"These two guys going (Wednesday), I would think, sitting here today, they're going to get pretty deep into a game -- they're both pretty good," Collins said. "Certainly, deep in the game, we'll make whatever move we think is essential."
 

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