NBA Win Totals analysis
By Tony Mejia
The WestgateLV Superbook released their win totals and division odds for the upcoming 2016-17 season. The following are some team-by-team notes to take advantage of, including recommendations on who to back in division races in the Atlantic, Southeast and Northwest that are projected to be tight:
Atlanta Hawks 43.5 wins, 9/5 to win Southeast: Despite a win total projected to be much lower than the 54 they’ve averaged in the first two seasons under Mike Budenholzer, the Hawks are still favored to win their division as one of only two teams expected to finish above .500. Al Horford and Jeff Teague are gone, so this will be Paul Millsap’s team and Dennis Schroder will get the keys to run the team full-time. Yes, Dwight Howard is on board, but Millsap has to be the stable presence since consistency is going to be the key to Atlanta’s success. That hasn’t been Schroder’s forte thus far and lately, definitely hasn’t been Howard’s. Millsap brings effort and intensity on both ends, night after night. Schroder’s continued maturation and having veterans Jarrett Jack and Wil Bynum, both Georgia Tech products, as safety nets, should lead to dynamic play at the point. As far as Howard goes, odds are that this will be his best season back in his hometown before he inevitably wears out his welcome by rubbing teammates the wrong way. He’ll be motivated in his return to an Eastern Conference that he was once a top-five player in and is still just 30 years old. Rookie DeAndre Bembry will be an asset too, helping the Hawks reach the playoffs. Projection: OVER
Boston Celtics 51.5 wins, 10/11 to win Atlantic: Winning the Al Horford sweepstakes kept the Celtics from coming up empty in what was always going to be a critical offseason for Danny Ainge, but the major splash of acquiring a Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook thanks to all of their assets never came to fruition. Instead, guys who heard their names being shopped in trade rumors like Marcus Smart and Jae Crowder will now have to play major roles, while athletic draft picks Jaylen Brown and Demetrius Jackson could get an opportunity to make an impact immediately. Oddsmakers have been big believers in Brad Stevens and this team for the past year-plus and have committed themselves into making them the East’s top threat to Cleveland’s throat. Still, Boston hasn’t won 50 games in a season since 2011 and may wind up disappointing backers even if it racks up another successful season. I'd favor the Raptors to win a fourth straight Atlantic Division title. Projection: UNDER
Brooklyn Nets 20.5 wins, 200/1 to win Atlantic: The Nets have replaced the 76ers as the low man on the NBA’s totem pole despite winning more than double the amount of games Philly managed to last season. Of course, that win total (21) is about the same as was projected here, but there’s little to get excited about as the Long Island-born Kenny Atkinson takes over in his first head coaching stint. Jeremy Lin is likely to start at the point, but rookies Isaiah Whitehead and Yogi Ferrell may see extended minutes as Brooklyn looks to develop talent, something they’ve been unable to do during Mikhail Prokhorov’s regime. Brook Lopez, the lone All-Star talent on the roster, will have to stay healthy to help avoid finishing with the league’s best record. Despite a reputation of being injury-prone, he’s actually played 72 or more games in six of his eight seasons. Still, it’s hard to feel good about backing this group to avoid bringing up the rear in the league's worst division since everyone in it appears to have improved. Projection: UNDER
Charlotte Hornets 39.5 wins, 4/1 to win Southeast: The Hornets won 48 games last season, their highest win total since the pre-Bobcats dates when they won 49 in 1999-2000. For historical perspective, Baron Davis was a rookie on that team while Eddie Jones and Derrick Coleman led them in scoring. It’s puzzling that their number has been set nearly 10 wins lower than the amount they were able to notch last season since losing Lin, Al Jefferson and Courtney Lee to free agency shouldn’t be crippling. While all were smart, dependable veteran pros, their production is replaceable if Michael Kidd-Gilchrist can stay healthy and young pieces like Frank Kaminsky, Cody Zeller and Jeremy Lamb keep stepping up. Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum could both be All-Stars, but these Hornets look like a .500 team, likely running third in the division. I'd take a shot a 40 wins if you forced me to, but would otherwise stay away here. Projection: OVER
Chicago Bulls 38.5 wins, 40/1 to win Central: After considering starting over from scratch by dealing star wing Jimmy Butler, the Bulls pulled a 180, bringing Dwyane Wade back to his hometown while also adding Rajon Rondo. All of a sudden, instead of rebuilding, Chicago looks to rebound from missing the playoffs for the first time since 2008 by going for broke and competing for the Eastern Conference title. The combination of three guys who need the ball and can’t space out defense with proficient perimeter shooting isn’t being well-received, but it’s not likely that head coach Fred Hoiberg plays Wade, Butler and Rondo together much, so if they get enough out of the frontcourt, they should top .500 and reach the playoffs since their leaders all play hard and are blessed with a stubborn drive. If Nikola Mirotic can consistently get them 15-20 points, they’ll close in on 50 wins if they stay healthy on will alone. Projection: OVER
Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 wins, 1/10 to win Central: The tales of LeBron James hitting the gym even earlier than usual and feeling rejuvenated by the challenge of squaring off with the Kevin Durant-infused Warriors have already gotten out there, but he’s taken some time off in-season in each of the last two years and has seen it pay off in consecutive NBA Finals appearances. Because they’ve won it all already, the sense of urgency to win every night won’t be as great, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see this group do a little coasting. Considering they'll wear a huge target in all 82 games and will get everyone's best punch on the road, it wouldn't be surprising to see them suffer through a few losing streaks. The Cavs went 57-25 last regular season and have to match that to go over this total. Expect it to be close and fade the defending champs. There's really no value in chasing the Central title wager, though they'll do enough to take the division. Projection: UNDER
Dallas Mavericks 39.5 wins, 25/1 to win Southwest: Even though they’ve been stuck in what has been the toughest division in basketball for most of the last decade, the Mavericks haven’t had a losing record since 1999-2000, the first year Mark Cuban owned the team. Even then, they used a 9-1 record in the season’s final month and got to 40 wins, which would net the over in 2017 as far as bookmakers are concerned. This is one of the bigger locks in the NBA win total game, since Rick Carlisle does have plenty of talent at his disposal and perennially finds ways to maximize his team’s abilities. He adds ex-Warriors Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut to the equation, knows what he’s getting from a rejuvenated Deron Williams and has also added potential key role players in rookie center A.J. Hammons, energetic forward Quincy Acy and shooter Seth Curry. Projection: OVER
Denver Nuggets 34.5 wins, 50/1 to win Northwest: The Nuggets actually had a winning March last season, so there are some expectations that Michael Malone will continue reaching his talented young players and fostering improvement. Serbian Nikola Jokic shined at the Olympics and looks like a major building block next to point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. Young international bigs Jusuf Nurkic and Joffrey Lauvergne both look like they belong and will be in the rotation, so if veterans Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried stay healthy, this frontcourt will be deep. Gary Harris and Will Barton each had their moments at shooting guard last season, so this team does have a definite shot at improvement unless the injury bug hits again or multiple players regress. Projection: OVER
Detroit Pistons 45.5 wins 10/1 to win Central: Team president and head coach Stan Van Gundy set the foundation for success here in his first season and saw a 12-game improvement last year, which sets the Pistons up to make a major jump when you consider that this team’s core players, Reggie Jackson (26), Tobias Harris (24), Andre Drummond (23), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (23) and Stanley Johnson (20) are all young and still improving. Improved defense should help yield further improvement and the arrival of Ish Smith to run the second unit should lead to better bench play. The one hole appears to be prolific outside shooting, so it will be interesting to see if they make a move to address that need at some point. Winning two more games than last season seems like a natural progression, especially since the NBA tweaking their intentional foul rules should help Drummond earn more minutes and be less of an albatross. Projection: OVER
Golden State Warriors 66.5 wins, 1/40 to win Pacific: Most of the early public money is all over the “super team” concept, riding the Warriors to win the NBA title. Despite adding Durant, coming off a 73-win season means there will undoubtedly be a drop-off. The books were somewhat pot-committed to put up a high number as a result and originally went 68.5 at some spots upon Durant announcing his intention to head west on July 4, but there’s no way Golden State is going to be as cohesive a group as last season’s record-setting group until at least 2017. Losing top rim protectors Bogut and Festus Ezeli will hurt defensively, so even though the Warriors will win the Pacific and deserve to be considered the favorite to win the NBA title come June, fading a finish as strong as 67-15 is the right thing to do. Projection: UNDER
Houston Rockets 41.5 wins, 15/1 to win Southwest: New head coach Mike D’Antoni takes over, so count on the Rockets being the highest-scoring team in the league. They’ll give up more points than anyone else too, which is a dangerous game to play but one that D’Antoni has had success with in the past. Since Howard is gone and shooters Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon came on board, Houston does have enough toys on board to potentially be successful playing to the strengths of its personnel, but banking on them improving on last year’s 41-41 record before seeing how all the pieces come together is something I’d want no part of. Projection: UNDER
Indiana Pacers 43.5 wins 15/1 to win Central: A 45-win season wasn’t good enough for Frank Vogel to keep his job and Larry Bird went out and got himself a new point guard in Indianapolis native Jeff Teague, looking to play at the faster tempo he wanted to employ last season. Nate McMillan was elevated to head coach and is hoping to build Paul George, Myles Turner and Teague into one of the Eastern Conference’s top trios. With veterans Al Jefferson and Thaddeus Young also coming on board, there’s a lot of quality depth worth backing on this roster. Riding the Pacers to win at least 44 games is the best win total bet on the board. There are worse ideas than taking a shot at a 15-to-1 payoff on them dethroning the Cavs in the Central. Projection: OVER
Los Angeles Clippers 53.5 wins, 7/1 to win Pacific: Only the Warriors, Cavs and Spurs have had higher expectations heaped on them, but the Clippers have won at least 53 games in each of the past four seasons despite Blake Griffin misses large stretches in each of the last two. Essentially the same team returns with veterans Raymond Felton, Marreese Speights and Brandon Bass coming on board, so there’s no reason to expect a decline. If Griffin stays healthy and continues improving alongside Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan, the Clips could make a run at setting a franchise-record for wins with 58.Projection: OVER
Los Angeles Lakers 24.5 wins, 500/1 to win Pacific: Over the past three seasons, the Lakers have won as many games combined as they did during 2008-09. Kobe Bryant is gone and the rebuilding process that has already begun will continue without the legendary guard sabotaging growth. D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson will be at the controls while No. 2 pick Brandon Ingram will be given plenty of opportunities to learn on the job. Adding veterans like Luol Deng, Timofey Mozgov and Jose Calderon will ensure a professional locker room, but wins are likely to be scarce again. They won’t go 17-65 again, but avoiding 60 losses isn’t as certain. Projection: UNDER
Memphis Grizzlies 43.5 wins, 8/1 to win Southwest: Center Marc Gasol has been cleared for training camp, looks to be in shape and should pick up right where he left off as one of the league’s top two-way big men. With fellow co-captain Mike Conley paid handsomely (5 years, $153 million) to stick around and run the show for the rest of the decade, the Grizzlies should be able to remain its grit-and-grind mentality, welcoming back Tony Allen to continue as a lockdown defender. Memphis hopes to keep Zach Randolph’s minutes down so he stays fresh for a playoff run, which means the newly acquired Chandler Parsons and emerging talent JaMychal Green should play large roles. We’ll see if Vince Carter, who turns 40 in January, can continue supplying a scoring boost off the bench, or if sharp-shooter Troy Daniels emerges. New head coach David Fizdale, a long-time assistant with the Heat, should post at least 45 wins if the core stays healthy. Projection: OVER
Miami Heat 36.5 wins, 8/1 to win Southeast: Since the Heat haven’t cleared him due to his scary blood clot issue, It certainly appears that Chris Bosh’s days in South Florida are over. Since Wade also moved on, there’s little reason to expect the Heat not to bring up the rear in the Southeast in what appears to be a rebuilding season where cap relief and the development of key young players will take precedence. Even though Josh Richardson will miss the early part of the season after tearing his MCL, he’ll play a large role alongside Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow and Tyler Johnson. Expect Miami to then use its cap space to chase big-name free agents in the offseason, likely coming off a 50-loss season. Projection: UNDER
Milwaukee Bucks 39.5 wins 25/1 to win Central: Losing Khris Middleton, by far the team’s top 3-point shooter and perimeter defender, to a significant hamstring injury that is going to cost him the majority of the season. There’s a chance he’ll get back in order to aid a playoff push, but the Bucks will likely have a hard time remaining in the mix long enough for his return to be a factor. Giannis Antetokoumpo and Jabari Parker are going to get more shots up as a result of Middleton’s absence, but spacing will be a factor and the looks are now likely to be tougher and better contested. Michael Carter-Williams’ return from a hip injury will aid the cause, but he’s a 25 percent career 3-point shooter and doesn’t stretch the floor the way Middleton can. Projection: UNDER
Minnesota Timberwolves 41.5 wins, 5/1 to win Northwest: It’s a shame that Kevin Garnett retired, because even though he didn’t figure to play much on this team, it would’ve been nice for the Timberwolves all-time leading scorer and rebounder to go out a winner. Even without his guidance as a mentor, these Wolves are going to be in the playoff hunt. Tom Thibodeau will upgrade the defense, especially since rookie point guard Kris Dunn will team with Ricky Rubio to set the tone on that end of the floor for 48 minutes. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins will only improve and become more consistent, so the question won’t be whether this team will win their prop and finish over .500, but rather, whether the Wolves will be able to push through for a 50-win season in order to capture the Northwest Division. They’ll likely fall short of that, but at just 5-to-1, books have protected themselves in case they do. Projection: OVER
New Orleans Pelicans 36.5 wins, 40/1 to win Southwest: Entering his fifth season as a pro, Anthony Davis still hasn’t played more than 68 of 82 games yet, which makes it dangerous to back the Pelicans even with this seemingly low-hanging fruit. There’s no denying he’s one of the NBA’s most talented performers, but New Orleans has been to the playoffs only once with him on board, only topping 34 wins in 2015. A new-look group will feature rookie Buddy Hield and free-agent acquisitions Lance Stephenson and Langston Galloway on the wing in addition to returning guards Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans. Alvin Gentry has his work cut out for him, especially given the division he toils in. If Davis plays every game, the Pels have a shot at .500, but if he fails to get to 70 again, they’ll be back in the familiar position of bringing up the rear in the Southwest. Projection: UNDER
New York Knicks 38.5 wins, 8/1 to win Atlantic: Team president Phil Jackson has finally assembled a Knicks roster realistically capable of making the playoffs. It’s going to take newcomers Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose staying healthy enough to be the driving force in leading an improved supporting cast for Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis that also includes Courtney Lee, Brandon Jennings and Spain’s Willy Hernangomez, but there’s finally enough talent on board for New Yorkers to get their hopes up. New head coach Jeff Hornacek will also provide a major upgrade on the bench, so the call here is to take a shot that they’ll at least break through enough to notch only the fourth season with a record of .500 or better since 2001, giving them a shot at reaching the playoffs for the first time since winning the Atlantic in '13.Projection: OVER
Oklahoma City Thunder 45.5 wins, 5/2 to win Northwest: While there’s no doubt that losing Durant removes the Thunder from the group realistically capable of winning a championship, there’s enough talent to not only make the playoffs, but to win the Northwest for the sixth time in seven years. Russell Westbrook is going to put up MVP-caliber numbers, Victor Oladipo should flourish in his new surroundings and young big men Steven Adams and Enes Kanter will continue to improve. The Jazz and Trail Blazers each have higher projected win totals according to WestgateLV, but don’t expect OKC to finish third. They’ll either win the Northwest again or emerge as the runner-up. Projection: OVER
Orlando Magic 36.5 wins, 8/1 to win Southeast: The Magic had a disappointing offseason, falling short in their quest to land a big-name free agent and settling for shaking things up by adding a badly-needed rim protector in Serge Ibaka, giving up on former No. 2 pick Oladipo in a highly scrutinized trade. Orlando doubled down on its desire to upgrade its defense around the basket by adding Bismack Biyombo, who enjoyed a breakthrough postseason for Toronto. You can understand the philosophy since 7-footer Nik Vucevic isn’t much of a defender and now has considerable help alongside him, but trading Oladipo leaves suspect shooter Elfrid Payton, streaky Evan Fournier and young Mario Hezonja as the catalysts at guard. Frank Vogel is the team’s best coach since Van Gundy was let go, but his first season won’t yield immediate prosperity. Projection: UNDER
Philadelphia 76ers 27.5 wins, 35/1 to win Atlantic: There’s a lot to get excited about if you’re the 76ers, who added the top prospect available in the draft in Australian forward Ben Simmons, who has already demonstrating special passing skills and instincts that you can’t teach. Dario Saric, who shined at the Olympics for Croatia, is also on board, while 7-footer Joel Embiid is expected to play, albeit with restrictions that should see him sit out parts of all back-to-backs. There still isn’t a legitimate starting point guard on the roster, an issue mitigated some by Simmons’ playmaking skills, but until they get quality backcourt play, Philly will continue to be among the East’s worst teams. Expect growth, but considering they won only 10 games last season, don’t get carried away with expectations. Projection: UNDER
Phoenix Suns 26.5 wins, 250/1 to win Pacific: If you want to back a team with a low ceiling, skip the Sixers and side with the Suns. Not only does this group seem to love playing for Earl Watson, but with Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight returning to run the point, they'll be far better equipped to finish games. Devin Booker is emerging as one of the NBA’s top young shooting guards and a center combination of veteran Tyson Chandler and Alex Len patrolling the paint means the ingredients are on board to turn things around quickly. 2016 draft picks Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss are a year or two away, but have a lot of raw talent and should combine with T.J. Warren to give Phoenix options at the four. Small forwards P.J. Tucker and Jared Dudley are team-first guys who will help set the tone on defense. Barring another round of major injuries, this roster shouldn’t lose 55 games. Projection: OVER
Portland Trail Blazers 46.5 wins, 9/4 to win Northwest: The Trail Blazers defied expectations last year, finishing with 44 wins when they were expected to win fewer than 30 due to so many departures. Instead, Damian Lillard emerged as a star, C.J. McCollum as a 20-point scorer and the likes of Al-Farouq Aminu, Mo Harkless and Mason Plumlee all made drastic improvement. That entire core is back this season in addition to the well-paid Allen Crabbe, who was almost poached by Brooklyn. Evan Turner, Festus Ezeli and Shabazz Napier also came on board, but with the Northwest deeper than it has been in years, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Blazers take a small step backwards, finishing right around .500. Projection: UNDER
Sacramento Kings 32.5, 150/1 to win Pacific: Ex-Grizzlies head man Dave Joerger becomes the latest coach to try and get through to DeMarcus Cousins, while Rudy Gay faces an uncertain future on a team that wouldn’t mind moving him despite him coming off three seasons as the Kings’ second-leading scorer. Although Vlade Divac added a few nice pieces in veteran wing Aaron Afflalo and rookie shooting guard Malachi Richardson, there are too many question marks everywhere else. Can fellow Kentucky products Willie Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere progress enough to take advantage of all the attention Cousins gets? Will Ty Lawson be engaged enough to be an asset at the point in pushing Darren Collison for starter’s minutes? Does Ben McLemore have a breakthrough in him or is he destined to underachieve? It’s hard to get behind this group being able to avoid 50 losses for the second straight year, something they haven’t done since ’06-’08. Expect an 11th consecutive losing season. Projection: UNDER
San Antonio Spurs 56.5 wins, 1/7 to win Southwest: The legendary Tim Duncan is gone. Amazingly, the only time the Spurs won less than 50 games in his 19-year career came in the 1998-99 strike-shortened season when they went 37-13, ultimately winning the first of five NBA titles with him on board. Gregg Popovich always jokes that he’d follow his franchise player out the door, but he’ll be back with Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge as his stars and Pau Gasol as this season’s key offseason acquisition. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are another year older, but Patty Mills and Danny Green are back to help ease the burden on them. San Antonio won a franchise-record 67 games last season and should finish with 57-62 victories in ’16-’17. Projection: OVER
Toronto Raptors 49.5 wins, 5/4 to win Atlantic: The Raptors took some major steps this past May, winning their first playoff series since ’01 and advancing to the conference finals for the first time in their history. They won Game 7s over Indiana and Miami to wrap up a season where they racked up an all-time best 56 victories. Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas each participated in the Rio Olympics, but that might come back to bite this group since there’s a risk their legs won’t be there down the stretch. Losing Biyombo hurts, but Toronto hopes Jared Sullinger and rookie Jakob Poeltl can soften that blow and are counting on DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross and Norman Powell continuing to hold down the spot on the wing opposite DeRozan. Although I like Toronto to win its fourth straight Atlantic Division title, I think they’ll fall just short of the second 50-win season in franchise history. Projection: UNDER
Utah Jazz 47.5 wins, 2/1 to win Northwest: It’s been eight seasons since the Jazz won the Northwest, riding the combination of Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams in addition to a frontcourt rotation that also featured Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur and Kyle Korver. That Jerry Sloan-coached group was loaded, but never got over the hump. The group that has been assembled in Salt Lake City for this season is the best and deepest in nearly a decade, fortified by the offseason additions of veterans Joe Johnson, George Hill and Boris Diaw. All came on board without the young core of Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert, Alec Burks and Rodney Hood being messed with. Dante Exum and Trey Miles, 21-year-olds with bright futures, will play x-factor roles. If both have an impact, look for the Jazz to win a loaded Northwest by topping the 50-win mark for the first time since 2010. Don’t be surprised if Quin Snyder winds up winning Coach of the Year. Projection: OVER
Washington Wizards 42.5 wins, 2/1 to win Southeast: Durant didn’t return home like LeBron, but that doesn’t mean Scott Brooks’ first season in D.C. won’t be successful. He’s definitely an upgrade from the fired Randy Wittman and benefited from smart offseason moves that brought center Ian Mahinmi, forwards Jason Smith and Andrew Nicholson, and point guard Trey Burke on board to fortify the bench. A starting five of Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat, John Wall and Bradley Beal is the most complete and talented in the Southeast, so the call here is to expect the team’s first division title since they captured the Atlantic in 1978-79. Projection: OVER
