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Wednesday 10/18/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
- Thread starter Pesos
- Start date
Soccer
Champions League
2:45pm ET
Benfica v Manchester United
Referee: Felix Zwayer
Last Head-To-Heads at Benfica:
1-1 (Draw)
0-1 (Man Utd win)
2-1 (Benfica win)
1-5 (Man Utd win)
Recent Form:
Benfica: 2-2-2
Man Utd: 5-0-1
KEY STAT: Benfica have won just two of their last seven matches
EXPERT VERDICT: Benfica are in a slump and the toiling Portuguese champions could be set for a third straight European defeat against highflyers Manchester United. The Eagles were beaten 2-1 by CSKA before being thumped 5-0 at Basel, and United – who have netted seven goals in two group games – look a class above.
RECOMMENDATION: Manchester United (4)
Champions League
2:45pm ET
Benfica v Manchester United
Referee: Felix Zwayer
Last Head-To-Heads at Benfica:
1-1 (Draw)
0-1 (Man Utd win)
2-1 (Benfica win)
1-5 (Man Utd win)
Recent Form:
Benfica: 2-2-2
Man Utd: 5-0-1
KEY STAT: Benfica have won just two of their last seven matches
EXPERT VERDICT: Benfica are in a slump and the toiling Portuguese champions could be set for a third straight European defeat against highflyers Manchester United. The Eagles were beaten 2-1 by CSKA before being thumped 5-0 at Basel, and United – who have netted seven goals in two group games – look a class above.
RECOMMENDATION: Manchester United (4)
Soccer
Champions League
2:45pm ET
Bayern Munich v Celtic
Referee: Sergey Karasev
Last Head-To-Heads at Bayern Munich:
2-1 (Bayern Munich win)
Recent Form:
Bayern Munich: 3-1-2
Celtic: 5-0-1
KEY STAT: Celtic have conceded in just one of their last six games
EXPERT VERDICT: Bayern Munich were taught a harsh lesson by PSG on their latest Champions League outing and may take time to see off visiting Celtic. The Germans have won just one of their last four games and Celtic could show their resilience until the break before the superior class of Bayern shines through against tired legs.
RECOMMENDATION: Draw-Bayern Munich double result (1)
Champions League
2:45pm ET
Bayern Munich v Celtic
Referee: Sergey Karasev
Last Head-To-Heads at Bayern Munich:
2-1 (Bayern Munich win)
Recent Form:
Bayern Munich: 3-1-2
Celtic: 5-0-1
KEY STAT: Celtic have conceded in just one of their last six games
EXPERT VERDICT: Bayern Munich were taught a harsh lesson by PSG on their latest Champions League outing and may take time to see off visiting Celtic. The Germans have won just one of their last four games and Celtic could show their resilience until the break before the superior class of Bayern shines through against tired legs.
RECOMMENDATION: Draw-Bayern Munich double result (1)
Soccer
Champions League
2:45pm ET
Chelsea v Roma
Referee: Damir Skomina
Last Head-to-Heads at Chelsea:
1-0 (Chelsea win)
4-1 (Chelsea win)
Recent Form:
Chelsea: 3-2-1
Roma: 5-1
KEY STAT: Chelsea have lost only three of their last 24 home Champions League matches
EXPERT VERDICT: Roma rode their luck at times in their 0-0 draw with Atletico Madrid on matchday one of the Champions League – they lost the shot count 20-11 – and Chelsea, armed with Eden Hazard and a vociferous home crowd, are unlikely to be so forgiving. Antonio Conte will not take Roma for granted and the Blues can bounce back well from their Premier League losses to Manchester City and Crystal Palace.
RECOMMENDATION: Chelsea (3)
Champions League
2:45pm ET
Chelsea v Roma
Referee: Damir Skomina
Last Head-to-Heads at Chelsea:
1-0 (Chelsea win)
4-1 (Chelsea win)
Recent Form:
Chelsea: 3-2-1
Roma: 5-1
KEY STAT: Chelsea have lost only three of their last 24 home Champions League matches
EXPERT VERDICT: Roma rode their luck at times in their 0-0 draw with Atletico Madrid on matchday one of the Champions League – they lost the shot count 20-11 – and Chelsea, armed with Eden Hazard and a vociferous home crowd, are unlikely to be so forgiving. Antonio Conte will not take Roma for granted and the Blues can bounce back well from their Premier League losses to Manchester City and Crystal Palace.
RECOMMENDATION: Chelsea (3)
Rick Needham at Belmont Park
RACE #2 - BELMONT PARK - 1:28 PM EASTERN POST
6½ FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $25,000.00 CLAIMING $47,000.00 PURSE
#2 DOINWHATSHELIKES
#4 BURN CONTROL
#6 BON HEIR
#3 DA WILDCAT GIRL
#2 DOINWHATSHELIKES has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in her last five outings, hitting the board in three, including a "POLWER RIN WIN" facing much better company (+7) in her last start. #4 BURN CONTROL drops in class (-14), has decent early speed abilities to compliment for this sprint, has has turned in "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" facing substantially better company in each of her last five starts.
RACE #2 - BELMONT PARK - 1:28 PM EASTERN POST
6½ FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $25,000.00 CLAIMING $47,000.00 PURSE
#2 DOINWHATSHELIKES
#4 BURN CONTROL
#6 BON HEIR
#3 DA WILDCAT GIRL
#2 DOINWHATSHELIKES has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in her last five outings, hitting the board in three, including a "POLWER RIN WIN" facing much better company (+7) in her last start. #4 BURN CONTROL drops in class (-14), has decent early speed abilities to compliment for this sprint, has has turned in "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" facing substantially better company in each of her last five starts.
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Belmont Park - Race #9 - Post: 5:19pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $60,000 Class Rating: 83
Rating: 3
#15 CARRERA CAT (ML=5/1)
#11 PURELY LUCKY (ML=5/2)
#5 TIZENGAGINGLYSMART (ML=5/1)
#7 BIG EXPENSE (ML=8/1)
CARRERA CAT - This campaigner coming off a strong effort in the last 30 days is a win candidate in my humble opinion. Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this one has the highest speed fig for the dist-surf. Had a dominant closing move last time around the track, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar race today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. PURELY LUCKY - I really like that recent race on September 22nd at Belmont Park where she ran second. Cox has a very strong win pct in turf routes. This filly should be in great shape. This rider/handler duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +26. Running 1 1/16 miles on the turf, you've have to look at horse's turf figures. This horse has the tops in the bunch. TIZENGAGINGLYSMART - I expect a lot from this horse. Her speed ratings under similar conditions are tops in this group. Had a powerful closing move last out, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar performance today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. BIG EXPENSE - The jock and trainer combination have a profitable return on investment when they combine forces.
Vulnerable Contenders: #13 POUND NOTE (ML=5/1), #8 FIVEINTHEMORNING (ML=6/1), #14 SCATBACK (ML=8/1),
POUND NOTE - She's most likely going to get cooked on the front end. This runner ran a most unsatisfactory fig in the last race. She shouldn't improve and will likely suffer defeat in today's event running that fig. FIVEINTHEMORNING - The sixth place finish in the last race was not the greatest. Run-of-the-mill fig last time around the track at Belmont Park at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this mount will improve too much in today's event. SCATBACK - This pony didn't go to the front end and didn't close any ground down the lane last time she ran.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - TIZENGAGINGLYSMART - My historical data shows that fillies often show signs of improvement 2nd time on Lasix. That's the case for this one, so I think she should run well above average today.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #15 CARRERA CAT to win if you can get odds of 9/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [5,11,15] Total Cost: $6
Bar
Belmont Park - Race #9 - Post: 5:19pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $60,000 Class Rating: 83
Rating: 3
#15 CARRERA CAT (ML=5/1)
#11 PURELY LUCKY (ML=5/2)
#5 TIZENGAGINGLYSMART (ML=5/1)
#7 BIG EXPENSE (ML=8/1)
CARRERA CAT - This campaigner coming off a strong effort in the last 30 days is a win candidate in my humble opinion. Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this one has the highest speed fig for the dist-surf. Had a dominant closing move last time around the track, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar race today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. PURELY LUCKY - I really like that recent race on September 22nd at Belmont Park where she ran second. Cox has a very strong win pct in turf routes. This filly should be in great shape. This rider/handler duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +26. Running 1 1/16 miles on the turf, you've have to look at horse's turf figures. This horse has the tops in the bunch. TIZENGAGINGLYSMART - I expect a lot from this horse. Her speed ratings under similar conditions are tops in this group. Had a powerful closing move last out, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar performance today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. BIG EXPENSE - The jock and trainer combination have a profitable return on investment when they combine forces.
Vulnerable Contenders: #13 POUND NOTE (ML=5/1), #8 FIVEINTHEMORNING (ML=6/1), #14 SCATBACK (ML=8/1),
POUND NOTE - She's most likely going to get cooked on the front end. This runner ran a most unsatisfactory fig in the last race. She shouldn't improve and will likely suffer defeat in today's event running that fig. FIVEINTHEMORNING - The sixth place finish in the last race was not the greatest. Run-of-the-mill fig last time around the track at Belmont Park at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this mount will improve too much in today's event. SCATBACK - This pony didn't go to the front end and didn't close any ground down the lane last time she ran.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - TIZENGAGINGLYSMART - My historical data shows that fillies often show signs of improvement 2nd time on Lasix. That's the case for this one, so I think she should run well above average today.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #15 CARRERA CAT to win if you can get odds of 9/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [5,11,15] Total Cost: $6
The Walker Group at Delta Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Allowance - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $37000 Class Rating: 78
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 18, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 8 OH DEAR LORD 3/2
# 2 WILDCAT SPRINGS 12/1
# 1 SOUTHERN GOLD 3/1
I favor OH DEAR LORD here. Overall the speed figures of this horse look decent in this race. Broberg makes a blinkers change (going on today), looking for better results. Hernandez's ROI over the last month automatically makes this horse a strong contender. WILDCAT SPRINGS - Overall the Equibase Speed Figs of this animal look formidable in this contest. Is a definite contender - given the 79 speed figure from her most recent race.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Allowance - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $37000 Class Rating: 78
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 18, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 8 OH DEAR LORD 3/2
# 2 WILDCAT SPRINGS 12/1
# 1 SOUTHERN GOLD 3/1
I favor OH DEAR LORD here. Overall the speed figures of this horse look decent in this race. Broberg makes a blinkers change (going on today), looking for better results. Hernandez's ROI over the last month automatically makes this horse a strong contender. WILDCAT SPRINGS - Overall the Equibase Speed Figs of this animal look formidable in this contest. Is a definite contender - given the 79 speed figure from her most recent race.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park
Delaware Park - Race 5
Daily Double (Races 5-6) / Exacta / Trifecta (50-cent min.) Superfecta (10-cent min.) / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7, 50-cent min.) Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8, 50-cent min.)
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 3:15P
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED AT DELAWARE PARK IN 2017 AND WHICH HAVE NOT FINISHED FIRST, SECOND OR THIRD IN THEIR LAST 3 STARTS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 18, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 18, 2017 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, FOR EACH $500 TO $4,000 3 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. I AM SUPERIOR TOO is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JUSTGIMMEAKISS: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" desi gnation. I AM SUPERIOR TOO: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. JERSEY RICH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3
JUSTGIMMEAKISS
4/1
7/2
5
I AM SUPERIOR TOO
8/1
7/2
7
JERSEY RICH
5/2
9/1
Delaware Park - Race 5
Daily Double (Races 5-6) / Exacta / Trifecta (50-cent min.) Superfecta (10-cent min.) / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7, 50-cent min.) Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8, 50-cent min.)
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 3:15P
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED AT DELAWARE PARK IN 2017 AND WHICH HAVE NOT FINISHED FIRST, SECOND OR THIRD IN THEIR LAST 3 STARTS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 18, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 18, 2017 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, FOR EACH $500 TO $4,000 3 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. I AM SUPERIOR TOO is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JUSTGIMMEAKISS: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" desi gnation. I AM SUPERIOR TOO: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. JERSEY RICH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3
JUSTGIMMEAKISS
4/1
7/2
5
I AM SUPERIOR TOO
8/1
7/2
7
JERSEY RICH
5/2
9/1
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs
Evangeline Downs - Race 9
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 66 • Purse: $5,000 • Post: 8:58P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * YAWLS DANNY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SHEZ FAST DASH: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3
YAWLS DANNY
5/1
2/1
7
SHEZ FAST DASH
3/1
3/1
Evangeline Downs - Race 9
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 66 • Purse: $5,000 • Post: 8:58P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * YAWLS DANNY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SHEZ FAST DASH: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3
YAWLS DANNY
5/1
2/1
7
SHEZ FAST DASH
3/1
3/1
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 6:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,600 Class Rating: 71
Rating: 4
#5 RING OF HEAT (ML=9/5)
RING OF HEAT - Ran last time around the track against a better group of horses at Woodbine. The move to a lower level should suit him well. Gelding has shown some speed. This shorter distance should be better for him. Jockey hops up aboard after getting to know the thoroughbred by riding last time out. That's always a helpful angle. Have to forget about that last race on the turf. This gelding should do better hitting the main track right here.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 PIERRE MINCE (ML=2/1), #7 HOLTZ (ML=5/1), #2 SCARLET FORESTER (ML=6/1),
PIERRE MINCE - Hard to put your cash on this early speedball. Too much zip in the event. HOLTZ - Don't believe this entrant will do much running in today's event. That last speed figure was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's class figure. SCARLET FORESTER - Woodbine is not cozy quarters to this pony. You always believe this horse has a shot to win, but he just misses regularly.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - RING OF HEAT - This gelding has the top speed figure last race with a very good 77. He is the top bet here.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 RING OF HEAT is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
Bar
Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 6:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,600 Class Rating: 71
Rating: 4
#5 RING OF HEAT (ML=9/5)
RING OF HEAT - Ran last time around the track against a better group of horses at Woodbine. The move to a lower level should suit him well. Gelding has shown some speed. This shorter distance should be better for him. Jockey hops up aboard after getting to know the thoroughbred by riding last time out. That's always a helpful angle. Have to forget about that last race on the turf. This gelding should do better hitting the main track right here.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 PIERRE MINCE (ML=2/1), #7 HOLTZ (ML=5/1), #2 SCARLET FORESTER (ML=6/1),
PIERRE MINCE - Hard to put your cash on this early speedball. Too much zip in the event. HOLTZ - Don't believe this entrant will do much running in today's event. That last speed figure was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's class figure. SCARLET FORESTER - Woodbine is not cozy quarters to this pony. You always believe this horse has a shot to win, but he just misses regularly.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - RING OF HEAT - This gelding has the top speed figure last race with a very good 77. He is the top bet here.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 RING OF HEAT is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
