Post-trade Cavs vs. East
By Tony Mejia
If you have faith that LeBron James can get back to health and lead Cleveland to its first pro championship since 1964, you would think hopping in just after a loss to woeful Philadelphia would probably yield the best odds you're likely to get.
Think again.
A sportsbook has "dropped" the Cavs to 5-to-1 from the 13-to-4 they opened December at, while another is only paying out +400 (4-to-1) if you want to take the plunge with the King's crusade.
Since James decided to rest his bumps and bruises for what was initially billed as a two-week hiatus but could end up being less after he's re-evaluated Wednesday, the Cavaliers have gone 1-4 without him. Kyrie Irving joined him on the inactive list on Monday, leading to the 76ers finally winning a home game for the first time in 15 tries this season. Fortunately for Cleveland, additional help is on the horizon.
The fact they've been toiling in the cesspool known as the New York Knicks makes it easy to dismiss the acquisitions of Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith, but both should provide a significant upgrade over the guys whose spots they'll be taking.
Dion Waiters, hoping a fresh start in Oklahoma City can restore his fading reputation, was too often hit-or-miss for the Cavs. Although the organization will likely be paying for Smith this season and next, the Cavs are getting a guard that has played in 51 career playoff games. Waiters has played in zero.
"Trades like this are always difficult to make because there are relationships and bonds built and that was the case with Dion,” Cavaliers general manager David Griffin said. "At the same time, we’re very excited to welcome Iman and J.R. to Cleveland. With their size and versatility, we think both Iman and J.R. can help our team on both ends of the court and we look forward to them joining us.”
Smith is certainly a knucklehead, but actually has proven to be a willing defender in the postseason and has the size and strength to make life difficult for opposing wings. Playing alongside James and Irving should help boost his career postseason shooting clip of .387 and get him open looks from the perimter to rally from a horrid stretch that has seen him shoot 23-for-94 from 3-point range in his playoff appearances with the Knicks.
Shumpert should eventually replace second-year guard Matthew Dellavedova in the starting lineup and instantly becomes the best on-ball defender the Cavs have on board. His presence will allow Irving to defend the weaker opposing guard on a nightly basis, and since he's used to playing without the ball, should make him a nice fit in a lineup where almost everyone else needs the ball. He's ranked among the NBA’s Top 20 in steals-to-turnover ratio in two of his three pro seasons (15th with 0.91 in 2011-12; fifth with 1.16 in 2013-14) and is capable of guarding both backcourt slots as well as some small forwards.
Although Cleveland's biggest weakness, a lack of rim protection, wasn't addressed in dealing Waiters, there is hope that Samuel Dalembert can clear waivers, making him an obvious candidate to come aboard via the veteran's minimum. The Cavaliers have also been linked to trying to pry Timofey Mozgov out of Denver or Robert Sacre from the Lakers, moves that would almost certainly improve the team and get them back closer to 2-to-1 or 3-to-1, figures that were available around the start of the regular season.
I've written since preseason that the Bulls should be favored to win the Eastern Conference and recommended getting in on them to win the East back then, so hopefully you got in on them, but for those who haven't been swayed from riding with the Cavs, expect these to be the best odds you're going to get. After all, if books aren't budging after watching David Blatt fumble away a game against the 76ers, it's unlikely those odds are going to get any better with James on the mend.
Incidentally, the Bulls went from 17-to-2 to 11-to-2 and are resting at +600 at another sportsbook, so the odds are still more lucrative than Cleveland's if you decide to pull the trigger.
Derrick Rose looks less brittle these days, rookie Nikola Mirotic has emerged as a key contributor and x-factor Jimmy Butler is now drawing comparisons to Paul George as opposed to question marks about when he was finally going to come out of his shell.
A sportsbook has the Cavs and Bulls at an identical +180 to win the Eastern Conference, but have moved the surging Hawks to +500, just ahead of Atlantic Division-leading Toronto (+650). another has took notice of Atlanta's steady rise and moved them to 25-to-1 to win an NBA title from 75-to-1, the biggest jump any team made in December.
Unless the Cavs make a run and catch a Bulls squad that they trail by six games entering action on January 7, odds appear pretty good that they'll be slotted in the 4-5 pairing, something to think about when considering this future. Suddenly, the top of the East doesn't look so soft, but the addition of Smith and Shumpert should produce improvement, especially when James and Irving return to health.
Be it Chicago, Cleveland, Atlanta or Toronto, get in while the getting is good, because odds are all four will see diminishing returns if they're able to separate from the rest of the East as the All-Star break approaches.
