NBA Atlantic Division Analysis
By Joe Nelson
Take a look as the five teams in the Eastern Conference Atlantic Division as we approach the halfway point in the season. Here is a breakdown of the results and spread results for each team in the Atlantic division and a look at what situations may be favorable moving forward for each squad.
The Atlantic has pretty clearly been the weakest division in the NBA with only one winning team and a collective 52-114 record outside of the division. The group also features the two teams with the worst records and worst average point differentials in the Eastern Conference. Right now, two Atlantic teams would still make the playoffs and there is hope for some improvement with the bottom two teams in the division playing two of the tougher schedules in the league at this point in the season. Outside of the hot start to the season for Toronto however, there has not been a lot to like about the results in the Atlantic division as we approach the halfway point in the season.
Toronto Raptors: The Raptors have a 10-game lead in the division and own a perfect 7-0 record in division games, but after starting the season 13-2, Toronto is just 14-12 since. The Raptors currently stand as the third seed in the Eastern Conference, but that record has been built through a schedule that ranks 27th in the league and the Raptors are just a .500 team vs. the top half of the league. The Raptors are just 21-20 ATS on the season, a victim of overvaluation after the hot start to the season as the Raptors are 4-10 ATS since late December. The Raptors are only 10-13 ATS at home this season and just 5-6 ATS as an underdog. They have dropped seven of the last 10 games S/U for an alarming slide, but the edge in the division does appear to be insurmountable for the rest of the group.
The Raptors have not been an underdog of more than six points all season, but that could change in the next month with some more difficult games ahead, particularly on the road in late February. Toronto is 11-6 S/U vs. the Western Conference this season, but with the light schedule and the failure to keep up the early season momentum, this may be a team that continues to slide back towards the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff standings. Toronto is 16-7 S/U at home, but just 10-13 ATS and the ‘under’ is 13-10 in Toronto home games as well. On the road, the ‘over’ has been successful in Raptors games at 12-5-1 on the season, though after seven of the first eight Raptors road games went ‘over’ the trend has settled down.
Brooklyn Nets: The Nets were a disappointing team last season, but they wound up as the #6 seed in the playoffs where they upset their division rival Toronto in the first round and then gave Miami a difficult series before exiting in five games. The Nets are potentially headed for an ownership change and after a coaching change this offseason, it has not been a smooth start with the Nets at 17-24 S/U. The Nets are 5-4 vs. the division and they are slightly better ATS with an 18-23 mark overall. The Nets showed some life in late December with wins in six of seven games at one point, but Brooklyn has dropped eight of the last nine games with just two ATS wins in the last 10 games. Brooklyn has been an overwhelming ‘under’ team with the ‘under’ going 26-15 on the season including 14-5 in Brooklyn road games.
Brooklyn has been a solid 11-8 ATS team on the road this season, but at home the Nets are just 7-15 ATS, including going just 1-7 ATS as a home underdog. The Nets are 5-2 ATS in the last five games on the road, sitting with a strong 9-5 ATS mark as a road underdog this season. The Nets are 8-3 ATS off a S/U loss and the ‘under’ is 16-7 in Nets games with the team off a S/U loss. The struggles for the Nets have come against the 29th ranked schedule in the league and the Nets have very few wins against quality competition. Brooklyn is only -2.2 in average point differential this season and the defensive scoring numbers are respectable, but with some other teams in the Eastern Conference appearing to make a surge, the Nets may not stay in the playoff field for long.
Boston Celtics: The second season for Brad Stevens in Boston has again been a challenge with the team clearly in rebuilding mode. The Celtics are 13-26 S/U on the season, but with an average point differential of -2.1, the Celtics have mostly been pretty competitive, especially at home where they are 9-13 S/U as Boston is just 4-13 S/U on the road this season. The Celtics have been nearly even against the spread going 19-20 ATS on the season while going 5-5 ATS in the past 10, but Boston is just 3-12 S/U since late December. Boston is 10-7 ATS on the road but just 9-13 ATS at home and the Celtics are one game below .500 as both an underdog and as a favorite. Boston has covered in four of the last five road games but the Celtics have failed against the number in four of the last five home games.
At home, the Celtics have been a strong ‘over’ team at 15-7 on the season while the ‘under’ has hit in eight of the last 10 Boston road games. Boston has played a tougher schedule than the two teams ahead of them in the division standings as this is a team that could be a threat to make a push for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, a spot that won’t likely require a winning record. Boston is 4-4 S/U in division games, but surprisingly just 5-13 S/U vs. the rest of the Eastern Conference.
Philadelphia 76ers: The 76ers have by far the worst average point differential in the NBA at -12.7, but at 8-33 S/U, the 76ers are on pace to exceed the dire expectations from the start of the season. After an 0-17 start, Philadelphia is 8-16 since for somewhat more respectable results, actually going 4-5 S/U and 5-4 ATS in the last nine games. Even with huge underdog pricing in many games, the 76ers are only 8-14 ATS on the season in road games, while sitting at 10-8-1 ATS at home this season. Philadelphia has not been favored at any point this season and after starting the season on an 8-4-1 ATS run as a double-digit underdog, the 76ers are just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 instances when getting double-digits.
Philadelphia has just one S/U win in 23 games as a double-digit underdog this season. Even with terrible defensive numbers, the 76ers are a great ‘under’ team with the ‘under’ 26-15 on the season, including 15-7 in road games. The ‘under’ has also hit in five straight home games in January for the 76ers. Philadelphia has just three S/U wins at home this season, but they have all come in the first three weeks of 2015 and Philadelphia may remain a more promising team in upcoming home situations, riding a 7-4 ATS mark in the past 11 home dates.
New York Knicks: The Knicks have been the worst team in the NBA at 6-36, but they have played the fifth-toughest schedule in the league. After losing 16 games in a row, New York picked up a win to start the week, but it has been an ugly season from an ATS perspective as well with the Knicks at 14-27-1 ATS on the season. At home, New York is 5-16 ATS this season as they have been a nearly .500 proposition against the number on the road. New York has just one cover in five attempts as a favorite this season, though they are just 13-23-1 ATS as an underdog. New York is 5-4 ATS when getting double-digits as an underdog. New York has leaned to the ‘under’ at home this season at 12-8 with the ‘over’ having an edge on the road for New York at 13-6-1.
The Knicks are 1-7 ATS in the last eight home games and this week’s win was the first S/U home win for New York since November and after winning the first road game of the season in Cleveland, the Knicks have just one S/U win on the road since with a narrow win at Boston in December. The Knicks are -8.8 in average point differential on the season, far better than Philadelphia despite the worst record in the Atlantic standings. New York is 2-15 S/U vs. the Western Conference this season as they have played a very tough slate so some improvement may be ahead especially with the growing spreads for New York as an underdog almost every night.
