Wednesday 06/24/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers
By Covers

Streaking

Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox

Lester had been 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his previous three starts, striking out 34 in 22 innings while limiting opponents to a .099 average, but he wasn't as sharp Thursday against Florida. The left-hander gave up two runs and eight hits over five innings - throwing 110 pitches - in a rain-shortened 2-1 loss that was called in the sixth.

"I think it was a difficult night," Francona said. "Things were rushed. He was even a few minutes late getting ready, just because it was difficult for him. I didn't think he commanded very well. ... (But) he still found a way to give us a chance to win. I think that says a lot."

Lester's lone start against the Nationals (20-48) came June 21, 2006, when he gave up a run and three hits over six innings - striking out 10 - in a 9-3 win.

Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox

Chicago gives the ball to Gavin Floyd (4-5, 4.65 ERA), who is 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA in his last six starts. The right-hander was denied victories in his last two outings as the bullpen failed to hold the lead.

Bobby Jenks gave up a game-tying homer in the ninth to Detroit on June 11 after Floyd yielded one run in eight innings. In Thursday's 6-5 loss to the Chicago Cubs, Floyd allowed one run in seven innings before the White Sox bullpen gave up five in the final two.

Floyd is 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA in two interleague starts this season, but he is 0-3 with a 10.50 ERA lifetime against the Dodgers.

Nick Blackburn, Minnesota Twins

Nick Blackburn continues to make his case for becoming the new ace of the Minnesota Twins' rotation.

Coming off his first complete game, the right-hander looks for a fifth consecutive winning decision while trying to help the Twins record a sixth straight victory over the struggling Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday night at Miller Park.

Blackburn (6-2, 3.09 ERA) allowed one run and six hits in a 5-1 victory over Pittsburgh on Thursday for Minnesota's first complete game since Kevin Slowey did it July 28.

Though Slowey has won 10 games for the Twins (36-36) this season, his ERA is almost a run higher than that of Blackburn, who's 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA in his last eight starts.

"(Blackburn's) basically been the stabilizer," pitching coach Rick Anderson told the Twins' official Web site. "It's always nice with a sinkerball guy, because they've got a chance to get you deep in the game."

Blackburn's also fared well in interleague action, going 3-0 with a 3.25 ERA in four starts. His only rough outing came against the Brewers last season when he gave up six runs and nine hits - including four homers - in 4 2-3 innings of a 7-6 win over Milwaukee.
Wednesday is chalk full of quality arms. We searched high and low for jobbers tossing today, but even old reliables like vincent Padilla and Jason Marquis have been performing half decent lately.

We still found one hurler to avoid today, though:

Slumping

Carl Pavano, Cleveland Indians

Carl Pavano has been giving up hits early and often recently.

After being hit hard in his past few starts, Pavano looks to bounce back Wednesday night when the Pirates and Indians continue their three-game set at PNC Park.

Pavano (6-5, 5.73 ERA) had a rough April after signing a one-year deal with the Indians (30-42) in the offseason, going 0-3 with a 9.50 ERA.

The veteran right-hander then went 6-1 with a 3.00 ERA over his next eight starts, but has since reverted back to his early-season struggles. He gave up nine runs over 4 2-3 innings in a loss to Kansas City on June 10, then allowed six runs and nine hits over five innings without getting a decision on June 15 in a wild 14-12 loss to Milwaukee.

"I was inconsistent," Pavano told the Indians' official Web site. "They put up runs for me, and my job is to put up zeros, but I didn't do it."

Right shoulder soreness pushed back Pavano's turn in the rotation to Wednesday, and he'll be looking to help the Indians string together consecutive wins for the first time since June 11-12.
 

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Cajun Sports MLB 2* Complimentary Selection- Wednesday
Date/Time: Wednesday June 24 / 8:10PM EST
Sport/Type: MLB / Side
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox
Graded Selection: 2* Los Angeles Dodgers -105
Analysis:
The Dodgers won the opening game of their three-game set against the host White Sox on Tuesday night by a score of 5 to 2. LA has won six of their last eight games overall and look to grab game two and the series win on Wednesday night behind starter Randy Wolf. Wolf is 3-2 W/L on the year with an ERA of 3.29 in his fifteen starts this season and his teammates have managed a 10-5 W/L record in those fifteen trips to the bump. Wolf is 3-1 W/L on the highway with an ERA of 2.91 and a WHIP of 1.015. The Sox will send right-hander Gavin Floyd to the hill with his 4-5 W/L and ERA of 4.65 in fourteen starts this season. He is 2-2 W/L at home with an ERA of 2.68. Floyd has struggled against the Dodgers posting a record of 0-3 W/L with an ERA of 10.50 and a WHIP of 2.417. Chicago is 16-18 W/L at home this season -7.0 units while the Dodgers are 21-14 W/L on the road for a profit of +9.1 units. Los Angeles is 20-7 (+13.8) in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games the last 2 seasons and Wolf is 12-2 (+10.6) after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings the last 2 seasons. We will back the better team laying a short price or possibly as an underdog as the Dodgers get the win and take the series with wins in the first two games of a three-game set.

Graded Selection: 2* Los Angeles Dodgers 4 Chicago White Sox 3
 

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Tom Freese Blue Line Club MLB FREE PICK for Wednesday 6/24/09

FREE PICK
La Dodgers at Chicago White Sox (8:10pm)
The Dodgers are 10-4 UNDER their last 14 games vs. righty starters and they are 10-3 UNDER vs. a pitcher with WHIP of over 1.30. Los Angeles is 7-3 UNDER their last 10 road games and they are 5-2 UNDER with Randy Wolf on the mound as an underdog. The White Sox are 23-6 UNDER their last 29 games as home favorites and they are 10-1-1 UNDER vs. NL West teams. Chicago is 7-2 UNDER in Game 2 of a series and they are 5-1 UNDER in the last 6 starts made by Gavin Floyd. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Floyd vs. Wolf)
 

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John Martin

Martin's Wednesday MLB Bonus Play:

St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets:

Total 9 un-120

With nearly the entire Mets offense on the DL, this one is a no-brainer. Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes are all riding the pine with various injuries, and the Mets simply cannot account for these losses. New York was shut out last night, 3-0, by the Cardinals in a game where they managed to record just 2 hits. Fortunately for New York, they have Fernando Nieve taking the ball tonight. Nieve is 2-0 with a 1.84 ERA on the season. He's got a tough opponent in Brad Thompson for St. Louis, who is 2-2 with a 3.89 ERA this season and 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA on the road. Without question, this is going to be the ultimate pitcher's duel. The UNDER is 8-2 in Thompson's last 10 starts overall. The UNDER is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between the Cards and Mets in New York.

Cash in with the UNDER 9 runs.

1 Unit on Cardinals/Mets U 9
(Listing Thompson and Nieve)
 

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Black Widow

Widow's MLB Free Pick for Wednesday:

Chicago Cubs vs. Detroit Tigers:

Detroit Tigers -130

We have two starters headed in opposite directions here. Rick Porcello, the 20-year-old phenom for Detroit has emerged on the scene to the tune of an 8-4 record with a 3.54 ERA this season. Rich Harden has hit a brick wall recently, going 0-2 with a 6.88 ERA over his last 3 starts for the Cubs. Detroit owns the best record in Interleague play of any team in baseball. The Tigers are 41-12 in their last 53 Interleague contests. Detroit is 8-1 in Porcello's last 9 starts overall, and now 7-0 in their last 7 home games. The Tigers are starting to play up to their potential and we'll ride them while they're hot.

Take the Tigers on the Money Line.

1* on Detroit Tigers -130
(List Porcello)
 

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Teddy Covers (no longer) is crashing and burning. He was really hot for awhile . Last 9 days he is 1-11 causing a 100 player to lose $3,986.00

06/23/09 Loss MLB Chicago White Sox -432
06/23/09 Loss MLB under (CHC at DET) -330
06/22/09 Loss MLB St. Louis Cardinals -309
06/21/09 Loss MLB Oakland Athletics -360
06/20/09 WIN MLB San Francisco Giants 300
06/19/09 Loss MLB Milwaukee Brewers -500
06/18/09 Loss MLB over (HOU at TEX) -440
06/18/09 Loss MLB Chicago White Sox -300
06/17/09 Loss MLB over (TB at COL) -550
06/16/09 Loss MLB under (DET at STL) -330
06/16/09 Loss MLB Baltimore -375
06/15/09 Loss MLB Cleveland -360
 

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JR O'Donnell

Bonus Play: MLB

Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels:

Total 9 ov-120

Look at these #'s to support our (OVER) The Los Angels pitching is 3rd last in the majors with a + 4.95 ERA.
We note that the Colorado Rockies are knocking the cover off the ball with 30 home runs & over 140 rbi's the last 24 games.... they have went 19-5 the last 24 battles

Jr's Play'n the OVER
 

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R&R Totals

Free MLB Over-Under

Chicago Cubs vs. Detroit Tigers:

Total 8½ un-105
 

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Big Al McMordie

Free Pick: Twins-Brewers Over 9 (+100)

Minnesota has found it tough on the road and Milwaukee's pitching is on the decline. That adds up to an easy Over tonight when the Brewers host the Twins in Beer City.
Our Wednesday MLB interleague selection is on the Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers going over the total at Miller Park.

This is an important series for both teams, especially for the Brewers who were in first place in their division when interleague play began but now have fallen behind the Cardinals due to their poor performances against the AL teams over the past couple of weeks. The biggest reason for the regression has been the decline of Milwaukee's starting pitching.

Dave Bush (tentatively scheduled to pitch tomorrow afternoon's game) is a perfect example, going from a starter who could seemingly do no wrong in April and the first half of May to now being winless since May 19, and not throwing a single quality start during that time.

Tonight's starter, Braden Looper, has also fallen on hard times as he is winless in his four June starts with a 7.97 ERA and a .322 opponents batting average. It is because of these types of performances that the Brewers are said to be shopping players like outfielder Corey Hart to other teams in search of some quality arms for the second half.

Twins righthander Nick Blackburn has been pitching very well of late and just threw his first career complete game in his last start. But before you get too excited, consider that that latest gem was against the Pirates – perhaps the weakest offense right now in baseball – and the two starts before that were in Oakland and Seattle, two of the most pitcher-friendly places in the Major Leagues.

Take the Over.
 

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Dominic Fazzini or Fazini Comp Play

The last time Bronson Arroyo faced the Blue Jays, he had a nightmarish performance on the mound.<o:p></o:p>
Arroyo (8-5, 5.16 ERA) gave up six runs in the first inning and four more without getting an out in the second as the Reds lost 14-1. That was last June 24. Now, one year later, Arroyo gets another shot at Toronto.<o:p></o:p>
He will be opposed by Jays rookie right-hander Scott Richmond (5-4, 3.79), who is coming off the best start of his career. Richmond allowed one run on five hits and struck out 11 in eight innings last Wednesday in a 7-1 victory at Philadelphia. He has pitched since then, however, allowing a two-run, walk-off homer Saturday during the 12<sup>th</sup> inning of a 5-3 loss at Washington after pitching a perfect 11<sup>th</sup>.<o:p></o:p>
Arroyo was solid in his last outing, allowing two runs on two hits in 6 2/3 innings against the White Sox for his first win since May 27. But he has had a tendency in his career to follow a good start with a bad one, and his career mark against Toronto is 2-4 with a 5.84 ERA, although that latter number is a little inflated from his start last year.<o:p></o:p>
The Reds have lost three straight and now face a fresh Richmond, who got his start pushed back one day after his emergency relief outing. Toronto hit three homers Tuesday in its 7-5 victory over Cincinnati, and now its formidable offense gets another shot at Arroyo.<o:p></o:p>
I’m not saying the Jays are going to score in double digits again. But I am saying that they are going to win. Go with Toronto.
(Based on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)

2♦ TORONTO
 

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Bread

Comp. 06/24/2009

Bread resides in Limbo City right now, someplace between Baseball Burnout-ville and When the Hell Does Football Get Here Village. Brother, can you spare a square?
The inevitable baseball burnout has begun for yours truly. When there are a million games during the season, and I seem to have action on about a quarter of them, it’s bound to happen this time of year. I’d like to say it is a Michael Jordan type burnout, where the constant winning became a bore to me, but alas, that is not the case.

I need a break from the stats, the streaks, and the trends once in awhile. Last week I toyed around with my Bet-Like-a-Square project. It involved a steady diet of Yankees, Red Sox, Phils and Cubs – either as large moneyline favorites, or on the run line. The project ended with a dismal 1-6 record. The lesson there is that when you bet like a square, you will probably lose like a square.

Budget that remains after
Bet-Like-A-Square Project
Interleague play always piques my interest. You are able to enjoy some matchups that you don’t see every day. For now, it’s a serviceable engine to get me closer to baseball’s stretch run, or football, or the next MMA event. Without putting a ton of thought into it (burnout, remember?) there are three games that I like tomorrow. Let’s take a quick look at them, shall we?

New York Yankees -137
Atlanta Braves +127
It looks like my square betting will continue for at least one more game, as I’m backing the Yankees as a road favorite. Joba Chamberlain (3-2, 3.89) and the slightly fading Yankees will be facing the Braves and their lackluster offense.

Kenshin Kawakami (4-6, 4.42) will be starting/getting knocked around by Yankee hitters. He’s actually been fantastic vs. the AL East this year. In three starts against Boston, Baltimore and Toronto he is 2-0, 1.90 ERA, 15 Ks in 19 IP. New York’s high-powered hitting (second in MLB run scoring, first home runs) should change Kawakami’s AL East fortunes. That’s the plan, at least.

Philadelphia Phillies +158
Tampa Bay Rays -168

Garza gets it done
The Phils seem to have the Rays number. Last year’s World Series wasn’t even close, and last night they throttled them 10-1. Never fear, Matt Garza (4-5, 3.83) is here. You know those starting pitchers that always seem to bury you? We all have plenty of them. Well Garza is the opposite – he is my rabbit’s foot.

When I am in need of a big win, I can almost always count on Garza. Will he be able to shut down the NL East leading, defending world champion Phillies? Will the highest scoring team in baseball be able to inflate Joe Blanton’s 5.28 ERA? I hope so. After last night’s throttling, they need some serious vindication.

Baltimore Orioles +128
Florida Marlins -138
How many runs will be scored in this game? Ten? Twenty? Both starting pitchers own ERA’s off the Richter Scale. Baltimore’s Jason Berken (1-3, 6.84) will face Florida’s Ricky Nolasco (3-6, 7.15). The o/u for the game is only nine. Something seems strange about that.

I was going to play the Marlins, but over the course of the last 15 minutes, I’ve talked myself into the over. Perhaps I’ll play both. I’m loosey goosey these days and not putting too much thought into anything. The number crunching will come back soon enough, but everyone needs a break.

So the Yankees, the Rays as a big home favorite and an Over with two high ERA pitchers starting. It looks like the square project is continuing. Crap.
 

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LT Profits Sports Group

Bonus Play

The Mets are now without Beltran, Delgado and Reyes, and Brad Thompson has looked good for the Cardinals vs. stronger lineups. Nieve has also been sharp, so go Under here.
The St. Louis Cardinals shut out the New York Mets 3-0 here last night, and we look for a similarly low scoring affair this evening.


The Mets lineup is basically comprised of David Wright and a bunch of nobodies right now, as Carlos Beltran joined Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes on the Disabled List yesterday. Thus, the fact that the Mets are batting an ordinary .259 vs. right-handed pitching the last 10 games is not much of a surprise, and it is goof news for Cardinals starter Brad Thompson, who has a nice 3.89 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in four starts this year.

The Mets may have uncovered a gem in Fernando Nieve, as he has looked very poised and polished while allowing a grand total of three runs and seven hits in 12.2 innings over two starts since his call-up. If he keeps up this pace, it may be hard to remove him from the rotation once the injured John Maine comes off of the Disabled List. He should be doubly tough on a St. Louis lineup that has never faced him before.

Now this may not be an exact replica of that 3-0 game last night, but we do not exactly see these clubs lighting up the scoreboard here either.

Cardinals/Mets Under 9 (-120)
 

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Matt Fargo

Today’s Free Pick: MLB

Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros

PICK: Kansas City Royals

REASON FOR PICK: The Royals took Game One of this series last night and they can use that to build some momentum following their recent five-game losing streak. That came right after a four-game winning streak and Kansas City has been a very streaky team this season. The offense has improved of late, scoring five runs or more in seven of their last nine games. The Astros fells to 16-19 at home with that defeat on Tuesday so the home field edge is not a big advantage this season. They are big favorites tonight based on the fact Roy Oswalt is pitching but he has been far from a solid proposition this season. He is having one of his worst seasons and has been extremely inconsistent from the start. He is coming off a complete game but he allowed five runs while throwing a season-high 126 pitches. He is 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA at home and Houston is just 3-4 in his seven home starts. Oswalt is allowing opponents to hit .287 at Minute Maid Park on the year. He will be opposed by Luke Hochevar who is coming off another poor performance but only two of his six starts this season have been really rough ones. The Royals are 3-3 in his games this season and following a horrible performance in his opening start, his ERA is a more respectable 4.60 in his last five outings with two of those being quality starts. Houston is hitting just .252 over its last 10 games including a mere .237 against right-handed pitching. Conversely, the Royals are hitting .267 and .269 respectively. The Royals are 7-2 in their last nine Interleague games against a team with a losing record while the Astros are 1-6 in their last seven Interleague games against a team with a losing record. The value is in place for a big underdog winner tonight.

3* Kansas City Royals
 

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Ben Burns

Today’s Free Pick: MLB

Cleveland Indians @ Pittsburgh Pirates

PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates

REASON FOR PICK: The Pirates took the loss last night but I won't be surprised if they're able to build some momentum from yesterday's late rally. Down 5-0, the Pirates refused to give up and rallied with four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning.

Even though the defeat was Pittsburgh's fifth straight loss, note that the first four losses had come on the road. The Pirates are still a solid 17-13 at home this season while the Indians are just 14-23 on the road. Additionally, note that prior to this series, Cleveland had lost six straight games (and allowed 50 runs in those six defeats) before earning the 5-4 victory yesterday.

The Indians' bullpen, which entered the series with a combined 5.35 ERA on the road, almost did them in again on Tuesday and they've got more pitching problems than just the pen tonight. Carl Pavano gets the start for the Tribe and he's been awful in his last two starts. Indeed, he's allowed 15 earned runs on 20 hits in his last 9 2/3 innings. Pavano's neck and shoulder have been bothering him and it looks like he's coming back down to his "norm" after enjoying some surprising success in April and May this season. Pavano already has made 14 starts this season and, keep in mind; he has not started more than 17 games since the 2004 season. Injuries and overall ineffectiveness have been an issue for Pavano ever since his fine '04 season when he pitched for the Marlins. It looks like the "wheels are coming off" for Pavano on the '09 season right now.

While Pavano appears to be in "play against" mode right now, Zach Duke of the Pirates is off back to back quality starts. In fact, Duke has produced a quality start in 10 of his 14 outings this season. The southpaw has been very strong at home where he's 5-2 with a stellar 2.77 ERA and 1.058 WHIP. The Indians have only seen him once (at Cleveland in 2006) in his career and they managed just four hits in seven innings against him.

Consider Pittsburgh
 

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Jimmy Boyd

MLB | Jun 24
Baltimore Orioles vs. Florida Marlins Florida Marlins
-136 at 5DIMES > 8h.
Bonus Play
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -136
Florida snapped Baltimore's 5-game winning streak in extras to take the wind out of its sails last night. Now I like the Fish to roll tonight against the struggling Jason Berken. He is 0-1 on the road with an ERA of 24.32 and he is 0-2 over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 10.68. While the Marlins' Nolasco has had his struggles as well this season, he has things going in the right direction now, posting a 2.50 ERA over his last 3 starts. Plus, the Marlins are 6-0 in Nolasco's last 6 starts with 5 days of rest. The Orioles are just 16-36 in their last 52 road games, 12-30 in their last 42 Wednesday games, and 12-25 in their last 37 during game 2 of a series. Marlins gets the call at home at a solid price.
 

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