Wednesday 05/13/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alex Smart

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals

It's the deciding game of this guelling conference semi-final with the winner moving forward. This series has swung one way, then another, and has witnessed endless action from start to finish with neither team taking a backward step.

What has been clear is that there is very little between these teams and dispite some outstanding shot stopping by the goaltenders, both sides have had trouble contianing the other. That is highlighted by the fact that at least five goals (twice) have been scored in each of the six games and besides game four, the remaining five games has seen the game winner come out on top by just one goal difference.

Some will be calling for a tight game here, but in reality these two teams don't play that way, especially against each other. When these two teams hook up the 'Over' is 10-2-1 the last thirteen. In the Nations Capital the 'Over' is 11-2-1. Finally, Washington is 21-5 'Over' after allowing 2+ goals in 3rd period last game.Pittsburgh is 12-2 Over after 2 straight contests where both teams scored 3 goals or more this season.

Play OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Gambling Hotline

Los Angeles at PHILADELPHIA -125

Tonight we back Jamie Moyer over Randy Wolf in a battle of soft-throwing southpaws.

Moyer sports an over 7 ERA this season, but is on the verge of a milestone, as the lefty is trying for career win # 250 tonight in front of the home crowd. With the Dodgers having lost their last pair of games, and 4 of 5 since Manny Ramirez' suspension, we will look for Moyer and the Phils to notch the historic win for the aged-vet.

Philadelphia's win last night puts the Phillies at a perfect 5-0 the last 5 regular season meetings at the Bank against Los Angeles.

Randy Wolf has pitched OK for the Dodgers, but with Phillies now having won 5 of their last 9, we will look for Philly to handle business tonight against the slumping Dodgers as Jamie Moyer collects win # 250.

Play on the Fightin' Phils.

3♦ PHILADELPHIA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ron Raymond

PIT (+115) vs WAS

Keys to selection: We?ve been handicapping these two teams for the last 10 days, when you get to Game #7 of a series, there?s really no edge or advantage, because there?s a reason why they are going to a 7th and deciding game, because they are two even teams.

Basically, how do you handicap a coin flip at this stage?

When you look at both teams, they all have the advantage of the veteran and leadership, Federov in one room and Guerin in the other. Both coaches have never been in this spot early in their NHL careers and from a defensive point of view, Gonchar could make a difference if he can dress this evening, because Mike Green has been average the last few games.

However, the difference maker can be Marc-Andre Fleury for the Penguins, as this is his second year in the playoffs and he?s faced adversity the last 2 years. Especially when he won Game #6 in the Flyers series in Philly when they were behind! If Fleury can stand on his head this evening, that?s the difference. Plus, betting +115 is good value on a team with Crosby and Malkin backing your selection.

Enjoy Game #7, but keep in mind, there?s really no edge or advantage in this game from a betting perspective, so don?t bet the farm is what I?m trying to say.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Michael Alexander

Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants

San Francisto send Barry Zito (1-2, 3.57 ERA)to the hill today, who is 1-0 with a 1.37 ERA in his last four starts. Zito struggled in his first two seasons going 21-30 with a 4.83 ERA in 66 games but has since helped the Giants to wins in each of his last four outings. Zito is 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA in five starts against Washington.

The Nationals counter with Shairon Martis (4-0, 4.67) who will be looking to win his third consecutive start in his first appearance against San Francisco however on the road he has a sky high 8.78 ERA compared to a 2.11 ERA in three home starts.

Look for San Francico to complete the sweep today

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Black Widow

MLB | May 13
Kansas City Royals vs. Oakland Athletics Kansas City Royals +105

Widow's MLB Free Pick for Wednesday:

1* on Kansas City Royals +105
(List Bannister and Outman)

Last night�s 12-3 loss to Oakland will have the Kansas City Royals out for revenge tonight. They have one of their best starters in Brian Bannister footing the mound. Bannister is 3-0 with a brilliant 1.48 ERA in 4 starts this season. Josh Outman has yet to win a game for Oakland, posting a 5.31 ERA on the year and 6.24 ERA at home. Bannister has made 5 lifetime starts against Oakland, coming away with a solid 3.38 ERA. Bannister is 11-4 (+10.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. The righty is also 8-1 on the road in Wednesday games over the last 3 seasons. Bannister is 15-4 (+12.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. Oakland is 9-24 (-14.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better over the last 2 seasons. Take Kansas City on the Money Line.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AJ's early Picks 5-13-09

Milwaukee Brewers -129 (1 unit)
St Louis Cardinals -111 (2 units)
Cincinnati Reds -127 (2 units)
Kansas City Royals +101 (1 unit)
New York Mets -127 (2 units)
San Francisco Giants Team Total Over 4.5 -115 (1 unit)
Chw/Cle Under 8.5 -110 (1 unit)
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

R&R Totals

MLB | May 13
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona D-Backs Total 9 un+100

Free MLB Over-Under
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pure Lock

MLB | May 13
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies -110

Free MLB Play
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dallas at Denver

The Nuggets look to close out the series and build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 postseason games as a favorite between 5 and 10 1/2 points. Denver is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Nuggets favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 13
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 739-740: Dallas at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 122.155; Denver 131.251
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 9; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 8 1/2; 213 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8 1/2); Under
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NHL Picks

Pittsburgh at Washington

The Caps look to close out the series and build on their 6-2 record in their last 8 games as a favorite between -110 and -150. Washington is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-145). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 13
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 67-68: Pittsburgh at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.380; Washington 13.577
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-145); Under
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's MLB Picks

Cincinnati at Arizona

The D-backs look to build on 5-2 record in their last 7 games as a home underdog between +110 and +150. Arizona is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+125). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 13
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Reyes) 15.103; NY Mets (Niese) 16.452
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-130); Under
Game 953-954: Washington at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Martis) 15.612; San Francisco (Zito) 14.827
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+140); Under
Game 955-956: St. Louis at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.047; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 13.866
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 10
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Over
Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Wolf) 14.334; Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.974
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Under
Game 959-960: San Diego at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Young) 13.024; Chicago Cubs (Lilly) 15.731
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-155); N/A
Game 961-962: Florida at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.143; Milwaukee (Looper) 15.563
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-155); Under
Game 963-964: Houston at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Hampton) 15.128; Colorado (Marquis) 13.772
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+145); Over
Game 965-966: Cincinnati at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.021; Arizona (Augenstein) 15.322
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+125); Over
Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 15.406; Cleveland (Lee) 14.252
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+135); Over
Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.877; Toronto (Richmond) 15.676
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+100); Under
Game 9271-972: Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.380; Baltimore (Bergesen) 15.300
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-110); 11
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100); Over
Game 973-974: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Washburn) 15.443; Texas (McCarthy) 15.540
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-135); Under
Game 975-976: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Willis) 15.884; Minnesota (Perkins) 14.702
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-160); 10
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+150);
Game 977-978: Kansas City at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 16.277; Oakland (Outman) 14.997
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Under
Game 979-980: Boston at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 17.053; LA Angels (Palmer) 15.376
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Over
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Freese Blue Line Club MLB FREE Pick For Wednesday 5/13/09/
Tom Freese Blue Line Club- Wednesday, May 13
FREE PICK
Kansas City at Oakland (10:05pm)
Kansas City is 5-0 in the last 5 starts made by Brian Bannister and they are 6-1 their last 7 games vs. lefty starters. The Royals are 19-7 their last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. Oakland is 17-35 their last 52 games vs. winning teams and they are 13-27 in Game 2 of a series. The Athletics are 1-7 their last 8 games as favorites and they are 1-6 their last 7 home games vs. the Royals. PLAY ON KANSAS CITY (Bannister vs. Outman)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Trends for Wednesday

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->CHI WHITE SOX vs. CLEVELAND
Chi White Sox are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 6-12 SU in their last 18 games when playing Chi White Sox

ATLANTA vs. NY METS
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
NY Mets are 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Atlanta
NY Mets are 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

WASHINGTON vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Washington is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington

LA DODGERS vs. PHILADELPHIA
LA Dodgers are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games
LA Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
Philadelphia is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing LA Dodgers

ST. LOUIS vs. PITTSBURGH
St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

TAMPA BAY vs. BALTIMORE
Tampa Bay is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing Baltimore
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

NY YANKEES vs. TORONTO
NY Yankees are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Toronto
NY Yankees are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Toronto is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

FLORIDA vs. MILWAUKEE
Florida is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
Florida is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

SAN DIEGO vs. CHI CUBS
San Diego is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
San Diego is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games
Chi Cubs are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home

SEATTLE vs. TEXAS
Seattle is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Texas
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Texas is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Minnesota is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit

HOUSTON vs. COLORADO
Houston is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Colorado is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Houston

CINCINNATI vs. ARIZONA
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

BOSTON vs. LA ANGELS
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
LA Angels are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
LA Angels are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games when playing Boston

KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Oakland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Trends for Wednesday

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->DALLAS (55 - 36) at DENVER (61 - 30)
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 54-36 ATS (+14.4 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 36-23 ATS (+10.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
DENVER is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season.
DENVER is 28-17 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games this season.
DENVER is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against Southwest division opponents this season.
DENVER is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when leading in a playoff series this season.
DENVER is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
DENVER is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
DENVER is 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
DENVER is 29-19 ATS (+8.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DENVER is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
DENVER is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
DALLAS is 216-174 ATS (+24.6 Units) as an underdog since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 12-3 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 10-5 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Dallas:
1-6 ATS at Denver
9-1 Under Away after allowing 100+ pts BB games

Denver:
10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points
19-10 ATS playing with revenge
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GameTime Picks

(6) Dallas (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) at (2) Denver (7-2 SU, 9-0 ATS)

The Mavericks, after barely keeping their season alive with a last-minute, come-from-behind victory in Game 4, once again try to stave off elimination when they head back to the Pepsi Center for Game 5 of this best-of-7 battle against the Nuggets.

Dirk Nowitzki poured in 44 points Monday, rallying Dallas from several double-digit deficits to claim a 119-117 victory as a 2½-point home chalk, cutting Denver’s series lead to 3-1. Nowitzki, who also had 13 rebounds, led six Mavs in double figures, with Josh Howard (21 points, 13 rebounds) and Jason Kidd (13 points, 10 rebounds, six assists) contributing double-doubles. Dallas also killed Denver on the boards (50-34).

The Nuggets’ Carmelo Anthony racked up 41 points and 11 rebounds in defeat, and Chauncey Billups had 24 points and seven assists. Denver hit a respectable 32 of 44 free throws (72.7 percent), but Dallas had one less attempt and made 36 from the charity stripe (83.7 percent). The Game 3 setback ended the Nuggets’ five-game winning streak, but they’re still 21-5 SU (17-9 ATS) in their last 26 games.

Dallas’ victory Monday was its first in eight attempts against Denver this season, but by barely getting the spread-cover Monday, the Nuggets are now on an 11-1 ATS roll (10-2 SU) in this rivalry (7-1 ATS this season). Denver is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings at the Pepsi Center, including a 14-point victory in Game 1 and a 12-point triumph in Game 2. However, the road team has still covered in five of the last seven head-to-head battles and the ‘dog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11.

Overall this season, Denver is 38-8 SU (28-17-1 ATS) at home, including an ongoing 15-game winning streak at the Pepsi Center (10-5 ATS). Dallas is 20-26 SU (23-23 ATS) on the road, including 2-3 SU and ATS in the postseason.

Not only have the Nuggets cashed in every postseason game to this point, but they are on additional pointspread sprees of 16-5 overall, 16-4 against the Western Conference, 10-1 against the Southwest Division and 6-0 at home.

The Mavericks are on a 13-5 ATS run as a playoff pup, but their pointspread streaks turn negative from there, including 0-4 in this series, 2-5 on the highway and 8-20 against the Northwest Division.

The over for Dallas is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 6-1 on the highway, 8-2 in second-round playoff games and 4-1 when catching points. Likewise, the over is 9-4 in Denver’s last 13 home contests, with the Nuggets favored in all 13. Finally, following a 4-0 “under” run in this rivalry, the last three games in this series have eclipsed the posted price, with Monday’s game soaring over the 210-point total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vernon Croy

-=TOP PLAY=- MLB | May 13
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs -154

Take the Chicago Cubs ML, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Cubs have the superior pitcher on the mound at Wrigley tonight. Ted Lilly (4-2, 3.11 ERA) has pitched solid at home this season with an ERA of just 0.42 while Chris Young (2-1, 4.76 ERA) has struggled on the road with an ERA of 6.97 over 4 starts. Young has had trouble finding the strike zone walking 13 batters over just 20.7 innings on the road this season and I look for the Cubs to hit him hard tonight. The Cubs are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite and they are 4-1 in Lilly's last 5 starts as a favorite of -150 to -200. The Padres are just 4-17 in their last 21 games and Ted Lilly is 4-1 with an ERA of just 1.96 in 5 career starts against the Padres so take the Cubs at a fair price as my MLB Bonus Play for Wednesday night

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MisterMJ 5-13-09

St. Louis -113
Play listed pitchers only: Pineiro / Ohlendorf
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Harvey

Dallas hasn't covered a spread yet in this series, and they won't buck that trend tonight in Denver when the Nuggets put an end to this Western Conference semifinal match.
I’m locking in right now with the Denver Nuggets in Game 5 vs. the Dallas Mavericks as this spread is only going to climb.

I look at the Nuggets as a more consistent version of the Lakers. You know Denver is going to win and unlike the Lakers, they do have the ability to put teams away and they have in their previous four wins at home.

The Nuggets are on a couple of impressive runs right now. Denver is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games overall and 5-0 ATS at home over the same stretch. Carmelo and company are also on an overall 8-1-1 ATS streak against the Mavs. Conversely Dallas is 1-5 vs. the number in its last six visits to the Mile High city.

I expect lots of scoring tonight in Game 5. Maybe we won’t see Dirk Nowitzki score 44 like he did in Game 4 or for Carmelo Anthony to hit for 41 again. But somebody or some bodies are going to “tickle the twine” plenty of times tonight.

To me, every other playoff series has been tough to cap. This one I’m seeing clearly, like the size of a beach ball almost. It’s tough to ignore the trends. Denver is playing lights out right now and they’ve been deadly at home. I’m siding with them tonight to wrap up the series and I’m also leaning heavily to a pretty good size play on the Over.

Free Pick: Nuggets -8½ (-110)
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