Wed MLB Examination

[Examiner]

Tonight I will look to examine two games and see if I can come up with a pick or two, let me get this out of the way first:

Record: (at RX)
MLB: 1-0
NFL: 4-0

Okay now with that behind me a quick first glance at tonight’s games. The common play will be prior to bounce back at Wrigley and even up the series in this one and who could second-guess that notion? Prior has been dead on in his last three and all year that matter but especially outstanding in his last three. (3-0 WHIP .99, ERA 1.54) Not to mention that he looked great in his playoff appearance this year against the Braves. Don’t forget that teams who have lost the first game in a series this year at home have bounced back with wins in game two as the Braves rebounded to beat the Cubs and the Yankees came back to beat the Twins so why would tonight be any different. The school of thought here is that the road team becomes satisfied with getting home field advantage back and will play less aggressive and just be happy to get home with the split.
This is where I have a bit of a problem with the theory a win tonight would take the wind of that Cubs sails and send them reeling, almost leaving them in a must win situation. There were also two things I noticed last night that stood out to me early in this series.

1) The Marlins are playing aggressive baseball and moving on the base paths whenever they can and they have the edge in this department and it could be costly in a closely pitched game when small ball is important.
2) This team does not give up and they do not seem phased when the get behind by a run or even more and do not switch their game but instead step it up a notch, after losing a lead more than once in a game (Sosa’s home run should have been a killer) most teams will fold but the Marlins pressed and made key plays when they had two in every situation. From Chad Fox making key pitches to Alex Gonzalez playing sharp defense the marlins played the better baseball.

Do I think this will be enough to over come Prior and the Cubs tonight? Yes and I love the act that this number is so high and everyone will be on the Cubs tonight. Emotion is a big part of this game and to prove my point look at how teams have responded after a big extra inning game in the playoffs this year. They have all come back to win. Penny has pitched well enough in his last three and against the Cubs to keep this one close and has mentioned the Marlins are making all the right moves right now and are the hottest team in the playoffs. Pudge has kept up his hot hitting but now he is getting help from the rest of the team as Lowell, Cabrera, and others have all chipped in.

The X factor in this one could be the Cubs bullpen and the evidence of that was last night. Marlins manager Jack McKeon had more weapons in his pen than Dusty Baker, and when Chicago closer Joe Borowski, who would have won if not for an error in the ninth, left the game, the Cubs fans knew they were in trouble.
Guthrie, a lefty, had given up the big two-run homer to Atlanta's Chipper Jones on Saturday that was the difference in the Braves 6-4 win in Game 4 of the NLDS.
Tuesday in the 11th, Guthrie was facing the best hitter on the Marlins -- Mike Lowell, who is on the bench in the playoffs after missing the final month with a broken hand. Lowell belted Guthrie's 3-2 pitch over the center-field wall to lift Florida to a 9-8 lead.
This game stays anywhere near close it will be the Marlins game to lose and the price is nice.
My examination reveals the Marlins are the play tonight.

eX

 

[questionme5]

Looks good for me too.

 

[vegas0023]

I love your analysis. You have an opinion on the total and how the weather will be? I hear weather is same as last night. Do you think Cubs will get over 4.5 runs? I am thinking of taking them over. Thanks

 

[Examiner]

Thanks for the compliments a quick examination of the total gives me some of the same problems I ran into last night. Much of my data pointed to the over, however I had liked the under so due to conflicting results I passed. (Thank Goodness) Tonight all the world will be doing is looking at the weather channel and will see that the wind is about the same speed and in the same direction and with the way the ball was flying out last night they would strongly consider taking the over, yet feel conflicted with great pitching on the mound. With that in mind the weather indeed is a factor, Mike Lowell’s home run to eventually win the game looked like a pop fly, in fact I thought he missed the pitch and was under it. Regardless there still has to be an investigation of the numbers. Penny and Prior have the O/U at a combined 3/3 in the last three starts apiece and all the overs came in games Penny was in (mainly due to great run support another side for the fish) while the unders were with Prior. The under looks decent when you consider these two pitchers don’t give up free passes too often. Penny has only allowed nine walks in the last eight games and Prior a bit more at 12 in the last five but he throws the right pitch at the right time to keep out of a big inning. Behind the plate, Merriweather has just had 13 of 24 games go over the total so you can look for a wide strike zone as well, and seven of his last ten games have gone under. When the total is posted at 9 or less Merriweather seems to have a bigger strike zone with the under at 12-7. A no play for me however with most of the research pointing towards the under but it is not nice to fool with Mother Nature.

eX

 

[Examiner]

Adding: Red Sox and the Over in the Red SOx/Yankees


e X

 

[BigGamesOnly]

I love your write-ups Ex. I'll probably be on the other side of the Cubs/Marlins game though.

One question, do you examine this?

Just kidding. Just having fun. I couldn't help myself.

 

[FadeYoAss]

eX:

Another fine write up my friend... However, you make such a strong point with Prior it's so hard to set that aside. Granted, the fish are playing out of their minds but their Achilles Heel is great Pitching. Schmidt showed that in the NLDS as did Wood during the season (2-0 ERA 0.50). Prior and Florida have not faced each other this year, so no hard facts.

Just my thoughts and I have no idea which way to go...

Late Bud.

 

[Examiner]

BGO ...

FadeYoAss

It’s hard for people to look at both sides of the game, many times someone will pick who they like first and then go look for stats, trends, etc that support the selection they have made. It would be ignorant for a Florida bettor to take Florida without acknowledging Prior and how good he is. I am a advocate of a system that is against many good handicappers because I believe that good pitching does not beat good hitting. Let’s say prior goes out and pitched seven decent innings as long as the opposition’s pitcher can keep it within one run anything can happen. That is not enough for me to go on but the numbers keep going. Earlier I wrote of how many free passes Prior has issued of late and although it is not a staggering number a walk to marlin could turn into a double real quick and then a one hitter by Prior could turn into a one run lead for the Marlins. I also think that the marlins have a very good approach to hitting going on right now and this could lead to a problem for the Cubs, they will try to keep Prior in as long as possible as the pen is weak right now. Guthrie’s confidence is shot and Alfonseca could have given up 3-4 runs easy if not for a double play. Meanwhile the marlins were putting on a display on defense and shutting down the cubs with runners in scoring position.

eX

 

[Examiner]

I would be amiss if I did not at least try to post my examination of the Red Sox/ Yankees tilt. Even the most anti-baseball fan would have trouble putting this off as a bad series; it has everything you would want in a series. The teams don’t like each other, the towns don’t like each other, and all round the world families are splitting at the seams over their devotion for their favorite baseball team. This series has many subplots with Clemens playing in his last season and will throw at Fenway and against Pedro nonetheless. So where do we start with game one?

The last thing I would like to avoid posting (and reading for that matter) is how one team is “up” for this series because both teams will be up and ready for this series. The boss has made sure to speak out in the media on how important this season is and the Red Sox have history and the media to remind them everyday.

So on to game one and let’s examine the pitching. Mussina is the better pitcher hands down, crunch all the numbers you want but Mussina is the better pitcher, but he is not pitching better. Wakefield has better numbers in hits allowed, whip, ERA, and opponent’s batting average. The starting pitching drives the line and so this is always something to keep in mind. Wakefield has not given up more than three runs in his last six starts and he has only given up more than three runs against the Yankees just once in his last five starts. In his last two starts at Yankee stadium he has pitched 12 innings and just allowed three runs in that span. This series is also special to Wakefield keep in mind the last time they met the Yankees in the post season, Wakefield did not only start but he was not even available for the start as he was not on the roster. Wakefield wants to prove he is worth the start and should be ready to go tonight.

Look for the sox to have the edge in the bullpen as well, yes I said bullpen. Again Rivera is the best closer off of the two teams but I think the Red Sox have better middle relief and the perfect example was how Coach Torre used the pen in the first series against the Twins. Rivera pitched four innings against the Twins. The rest of the bullpen combined for 3 1/3 innings

Overall both of these teams can score runs and to think you can get any over at even money or dog money is worth a second look, also think it is a great value play if you are on the Red Sox. If the Red Sox lose in this one it is because Wakefield did not show up or the pen exploded, both equate to runs that would lead to the over. Also the wind is blowing out and that will help as well. The over has come in five of the last six games and the road team has won four of the six. Both pitchers have a combined O/U of 19/13 when Mussina is at home and Wakefield is on the road, and finally the last three starts Wakefield has against the Yankees have gone over.

Top Finding: Boston
Also Over 9 is a play

eX

 

[Examiner]

I am going to add the under in the Cubs/Florida game. It falls into place with my theory that the Marlins will win this game if it is close. I hate to take all four sides available with a streak on the line but I like how they all shape up this evening.

eX

 

[Examiner]

Last minute note: Keep in mind Varitek will not start tonight as he does not catch Wakefield.

eX