Wed 12/10 - Sekrah Performance Ratings & Analysis

[Sekrah]

I did 4 games this morning before I head off to bed. I spotted a great one, I'm going to jump at this line before it moves.


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For those who handicap horse racing, this is basically "The Sheets" or "Thorograph" for College Basketball!!

Bold = Home
Italics = Away
Normal = Neutral

Lower the number, the better the performance/effort. Each point difference is worth roughly 2 points.

Ignore the opponent! Performance ratings are already opponent strength adjusted!!
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Ohio at Xavier

Ohio Game Ratings
16 - William & Mary
17 - Austin Peay
21 - George Mason
16 - Tulsa
23 - Lamar
26 - Louisville
16 - Indiana St.

We won money on Ohio on Monday vs Indiana State as they were a major heat play after the Louisville game. They should react poorly to this 16, especially on short rest. Bringing them back to a 22 here.


Xavier Game Ratings
15 - IUPU Fort Wayne
14 - Toledo
10 - Missouri
17 - Virginia Tech
9 - Memphis
14 - Miami OH
15 - Auburn

I love this pattern here! A near pair (14-15) at the bottom end of the range (9-17), this primetime cooking for a bump up! Just as they did vs Missouri, this has a 10 written all over it!

Indiana State with the negative pattern. Xavier with the beauty. I love the Muskateers to roll on here.

Forecast: Indiana St. 22 - Xavier 10 (Xavier -24)

Play: Xavier -15.5 (2.5 units)



I'm heading to bed now.. There will be more plays posted later before I head off to work at 4:30 ET.

 

[didiasku]

question...

whats the YTD record here...I love the analysis, but trying to see if the proof is in the pudding...

thanks

 

[Sekrah]

whats the YTD record here...I love the analysis, but trying to see if the proof is in the pudding...

thanks

Just started posting plays with these ratings on Monday, .. I believe I am 4-3 up 2 units. I'd have to go back and check. But this is early in the process.

 

[Sekrah]

TCU at Indiana

TCU Game Ratings
24 - Western Michigan
14 - Clemson
21 - Charleston
20 - Nebraska
22 - McNeese St.
14 - Southern Methodist
NR - St. Gregory
14 - Colorado
21 - Texas A&M CC
11 - Wichita St.

TCU was a play Monday on the heat. This 11 is outta this world for this wildly inconsistant team. Heading back on the road, I can't see them repeating anything near this effort. Bringing them back to the 21.


Indiana Game Ratings
24 - Northwestern St.
24 - IUPUI
27 - Notre Dame
28 - St. Joseph's.
NR - Chaminade
16 - Cornell
21 - Wake Forest
19 - Gonzaga (Indianapolis)

Wow.. Something happened to this team after they got back home from the Islands. They start off with a 16 vs Cornell, and heading back on the road I would of predicted that performance to wipe them out for a couple games. But no, they only regress just 5 on a road game at Wake Forest, and they come back to Indiana with a 19 vs Gonzaga! This team is a different team than they were earlier in the year. They are now going back to Bloomington for the first time since the 16. I think they head back in that direction! I'm going 17 here!

Forecast: TCU 21 - Indiana 17 (Indiana -8)

Play: Indiana +1 (2.5 units).

 

[Drunkn247]

I don't understand your formula at all? Can you explain?

 

[Sekrah]

Butler at Bradley

Butler Game Ratings

13 - Drake
15 - Ball St.
NR - Ind-South Bend
10 - Northwestern
8 - Evansville
19 - Cleveland St.
18 - Youngstown St.

Wow, impressive start to the season for Butler, This looks like quite a solid team. They've predictably tailed off last two games after the monster 10 and 8 performances! I really like their chances of moving back forward into a good number here after their two worst performances of the season. I hope they aren't looking forward to Saturday. I like them for a 14 here.


Bradley Game Ratings

15 - Illinois-Chicago
27 - Florida
23 - Missouri-KC
22 - Florida Gulf Coast
15 - Richmond
20 - East Tennessee St.
20 - Michigan St.


This is difficult pattern for me to make a call on. In general, it looks like a positive pattern andI can see them playing a strong game here at home, but 5 out of their 7 games (20+) make them extremely uncompetitive in this spot. I'm going to give them a 17 here.

Forecast: Butler 14 - Bradley 17 (Butler -6)

Play: Butler pk (1.5 units)

 

[Sekrah]

I don't understand your formula at all? Can you explain?

The rating number tells us how good they played vs each opponent, relative to their opponent's strength.

There are patterns in these games. When teams play great games (for their standards), they usually come back to their norm the next time out. When teams play awful games, they usually catch heat in their next practices and are motivated to come out and give a good effort!

These numbers are to be used to determine the true quality of the team and spot patterns.

The lower the number, the better the performance. A team that gives a 15 performance/effort will beat a team that gives a 19 by approximately 8 points on average (but really could range anywhere from 4 to 12).

 

[Sekrah]

I have to leave for work.. I don't have times to post these rating and analysis.

Charlotte +7 over Mississippi St. (1.5 unit)
San Diego St. +6.5 over Arizona (2.0 unit)

Add them in with..

Xavier -15.5 over Ohio (2.5 unit)
Indiana +1 over TCU (2.5 unit)
Butler pk over Bradley (1.5 unit)

 

[endymion79]

Looking good with SDS left to go! Nice!

 

[Gelo04]

I don't understand your formula at all? Can you explain?

I am very interested also can you please explain your system. Thank you and great job tonight.

 

[MIKEY.1TIME]

great work

 

[G-Lee]

Nice Capping Sir.. great job today

 

[indiana]

Sek...

nice job

indy

 

[PocoGrazi]

I find this strategy fascinating. Really impressive. I have a feeling this model could hold up all year and net 60% plus winners. What about the NBA? Have you tried it there as well? I'd be really interested to see how that would work also.

 

[Sekrah]

4-1 +5.8 units.

San Diego St. was there all game long through 37 minutes for us, but they just couldn't make a shot down the stretch!

Great night anyhow!

 

[JesseBlack]

This is an excellent concept. I have been a Ragosin guy for over 20 years.
Here you don't have to deal with distance, weight, wind, track condition, trip or jockey.
I really think you are on to something here. It's a matter of having the correct speed figure for each horse.
Do you think it might be even more accurate for NBA ?