we know joe public is on colts and over tonight but where it the real money being bet?

[chuckfranklin]

You know guys with these forums and all now you hear so much about the "general public" well tonight there is no question who the general public is on as i would say 8 out of every 10 gamblers in the world are betting colts and over.

However I strongly feel those 2 that are betting miami and under are your wiseguys and from what i see in the service plays most touts have miami and under. when i say wiseguys i mean guys from all the different forums i visit daily. Most of the cappers i respect are on miami 16 out of 19 to be exact.

I also feel that these 2 of every 10 gamblers taking miami tonight are much BIGGER gamblers meaning bet more $ on game then the said 8 of 10 betting colts. With this being said is this still a trap game? I feel like most sportsbooks tonight will have many more indy bettors however i feel there will be more money bet on miami.

I just look at it this way if i am a book and have 20 bettors and 19 call in and bet $100 on indy however that one guy bets $2500 on miami who am i gonna pull for?


Just something to think about to those of you who love betting against the public just something else to think about. both dogs covered last monday night.

FWIW my opinion tonight is 2 stars indy-3 and 3 stars under 41

Final score indy 24 miami 14

best of luck

 

[Twisted]

Makes sense to me :toast:

 

[Jakk]

Yeah it has to be big money moving the total down to 41 on MNF

 

[tarheelblue86]

colts -3 just seems too easy...usually when lines are that fishy u want to be on the other side...imo

 

[theycallmedug]

this seems like one of those games if u tease both sides u can hit no matter what sides u tease

 

[MemphisMonroe]

huh?

 

[ds123]

huh?

He's saying the game is gonna be so close you can probably tease Miami from +3 to +9 and Indy from -3 to +3 and get a real good shot at hitting both.

 

[LuvParlays]

The amount of Touts on MIA is kinda scary.

 

[theDonger]

I just look at it this way if i am a book and have 20 bettors and 19 call in and bet $100 on indy however that one guy bets $2500 on miami who am i gonna pull for?

you're exactly right, you're pulling for the team that makes you payout less to your players/bettors.

The flaw in your logic regarding this game, is that #'s available out there regarding public action is reflective of dollars wagered, not # of bets.

Also, the line has not moved... at all with this game. If we assume your logic to be correct (more small bets on Indy and larger money on Miami) then why wouldn't the books move the line to +2.5?

I don't pay for sportsinisights, I use Vegasinsider to tabulate where the public is at. The numbers reflect dollars wagered, not the number of bets on a team. Zero line movement tells me vegas has the line set perfectly to attract the kind of action it wants on this game.

After Jacksonville got exposed yesterday, Indy's 2pt win last week doesn't look that impressive. I'll take the home dog, zero line move, public fade tonight. Just like I did with Chicago and NYG.

Peace out

 

[CarolinaKid]

under is imo the best play in this game...ck

 

[chuckfranklin]

had that feeling here i am pretty much knowing all the MONEY is on miami and under and i still fall in the under trap.

joe public wins. wiseguys and sharps lose back most of what they won yesterday.

how about that miami play call 20-20 on 3rd and 6 from the indy 29 run up the middle and then on the last drive like they had all night taking there time.

miami dominated this game in almost every aspect but your final score. best of luck to you all in the future.


all i was saying is if the touts and smart forum posters are on same side watch out and maybe consider betting with joe public. If touts and smart forum posters are opposite i like the smart forum guys opinion. And ofcourse if touts and joe public are on same side go the other way.