sorry i'm late...life keeps coming.
first of all, i wish the #'s would work for the playoffs because today's games would be a slamdunk, being the colts are a 1pt home fav (2-9 ats) and the saints are a road fav of 4 (3-15 ats)...alas it can't be trusted.
in the realm of reverse engineering the playoffs we naturally have to start with who's getting there, if you know who's getting there it makes the playoffs alot easier to play...catch is, you gotta be right. that's the tough part.
for this we have to go to the 20pt system.
12 of the last 14 years there has been a participant in the bowl who has reached 20+pts in the system, (i'm sure it can be looked up as to how it works in my posts from last year).
this system does not gaurantee they get there, but it has been as close to that as it gets.
this seasons #'s
seattle +21
carolina +16
new england +13
san francisco +13
cincinnati +12
kansas city +11
san diego +8
new orleans +6
indianapolis +5
denver -1
green bay -2
philadelphia -3
looks like seattle represents the nfc, now as for the afc....what do you believe in?
first, whoever gets to the superbowl for the afc will cover the spread at least, probably win the game su.
this has been the history of the system with incredible accuracy having the lower rated team enjoying a 8-0 ats and 7-1 su mark since 05.
what gets somebody the best chance to get there..
1) a healthy team
2) a positive turnover ratio (opportunistic defense and special teams)
3) a deliberate qb (limits giveaways)
given the average age of all winning qbs in the sb ave 27 years old the last 14 years there has been only a few qb's to top 30 years old and take it, brees, the mannings and the wallpaper that was brad johnson in the tb/oak payback game.
youth, strength and health win..this gives you kc, cinn and sd...let's rule out sd right off the line because of the notariety received with the "whoever opens at philly last 4 years went on to win the sb" garbage, that's already sucked in a huge amount of people....that leaves kc and cinn.
cinn was consistantly beaten on the road all year long having gone 3-5 su with 2 3pt wins(one in ot)...this means the have'nt been able to take thier game outside of cincinnati and be productive, close but no cigar games are called losses period.
kc gets left standing...
alex smith...28 years old, outstanding winning percentage, deliberate qb with playoff experience
kc...close to healthy across the board with an opportunistic defense, positive to ratio, and big playmakers on offense, defense and special teams.
thier recent losses and look vs teams down the stretch is the perfect disquise that oddsmakers love and the nfl enjoys in the playoffs when "somebody" fills the cindarella role.
so if you believe kc faces seattle in the sb, it knocks out guesswork in choosing 70% of the playoff games as far as choosing a side.now you just have to sweat totals.
i'll get more into that next week.
as far as the wc games go...3 games will be freezing and one in a dome.
the 3 freezing games will see each home team welcoming warm weather teams, i expect that they each end with the home team being just a little more comfortable at home with the weather and it shows out. however the sf/gb game could literally be a toss up...sf is healthy, gb is hurt..the cold just might be the difference for gb.
the indoor game, has, imo, the 2nd eventual sb participant, so that speaks for itself
kansas city
over kc/ind
philadelphia
under no/phi
cincinnati
under sd/cin
green bay
under sf/gb
i'll get deeper next week...and less long winded
GAME.
first of all, i wish the #'s would work for the playoffs because today's games would be a slamdunk, being the colts are a 1pt home fav (2-9 ats) and the saints are a road fav of 4 (3-15 ats)...alas it can't be trusted.
in the realm of reverse engineering the playoffs we naturally have to start with who's getting there, if you know who's getting there it makes the playoffs alot easier to play...catch is, you gotta be right. that's the tough part.
for this we have to go to the 20pt system.
12 of the last 14 years there has been a participant in the bowl who has reached 20+pts in the system, (i'm sure it can be looked up as to how it works in my posts from last year).
this system does not gaurantee they get there, but it has been as close to that as it gets.
this seasons #'s
seattle +21
carolina +16
new england +13
san francisco +13
cincinnati +12
kansas city +11
san diego +8
new orleans +6
indianapolis +5
denver -1
green bay -2
philadelphia -3
looks like seattle represents the nfc, now as for the afc....what do you believe in?
first, whoever gets to the superbowl for the afc will cover the spread at least, probably win the game su.
this has been the history of the system with incredible accuracy having the lower rated team enjoying a 8-0 ats and 7-1 su mark since 05.
what gets somebody the best chance to get there..
1) a healthy team
2) a positive turnover ratio (opportunistic defense and special teams)
3) a deliberate qb (limits giveaways)
given the average age of all winning qbs in the sb ave 27 years old the last 14 years there has been only a few qb's to top 30 years old and take it, brees, the mannings and the wallpaper that was brad johnson in the tb/oak payback game.
youth, strength and health win..this gives you kc, cinn and sd...let's rule out sd right off the line because of the notariety received with the "whoever opens at philly last 4 years went on to win the sb" garbage, that's already sucked in a huge amount of people....that leaves kc and cinn.
cinn was consistantly beaten on the road all year long having gone 3-5 su with 2 3pt wins(one in ot)...this means the have'nt been able to take thier game outside of cincinnati and be productive, close but no cigar games are called losses period.
kc gets left standing...
alex smith...28 years old, outstanding winning percentage, deliberate qb with playoff experience
kc...close to healthy across the board with an opportunistic defense, positive to ratio, and big playmakers on offense, defense and special teams.
thier recent losses and look vs teams down the stretch is the perfect disquise that oddsmakers love and the nfl enjoys in the playoffs when "somebody" fills the cindarella role.
so if you believe kc faces seattle in the sb, it knocks out guesswork in choosing 70% of the playoff games as far as choosing a side.now you just have to sweat totals.
i'll get more into that next week.
as far as the wc games go...3 games will be freezing and one in a dome.
the 3 freezing games will see each home team welcoming warm weather teams, i expect that they each end with the home team being just a little more comfortable at home with the weather and it shows out. however the sf/gb game could literally be a toss up...sf is healthy, gb is hurt..the cold just might be the difference for gb.
the indoor game, has, imo, the 2nd eventual sb participant, so that speaks for itself
kansas city
over kc/ind
philadelphia
under no/phi
cincinnati
under sd/cin
green bay
under sf/gb
i'll get deeper next week...and less long winded
GAME.
