[h=1]Way-Too-Early NBA title bets for 2017[/h]Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- With the Cleveland Cavaliers completing their historic comeback to win the NBA Finals over the Golden State Warriors after trailing 3-1, the questions now are whether the Cavaliers can repeat, if the Warriors can bounce back and reclaim the crown or if another team can emerge to challenge the clear top two teams.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has had odds to win the 2016-17 NBA title since May 29, before the Finals started. The Warriors opened as the 3-2 favorites (+150 as a money line) and were actually been bet lower to 7-5 (+140) before being raised to 7-4 (+175) after losing on Sunday night. The Cleveland Cavaliers opened as the second choice at 5-2 and had been raised to 3-1 before being lowered to 5-2 after winning the title.
The San Antonio Spurs are a solid third choice at 6-1, while theOklahoma City Thunder opened at 8-1 and have been bet down to 7-1.
After that foursome, there aren't any other teams at single-digit odds.
Now, we know there is a lot of uncertainty when looking at these "too-early" odds (as some people call them, though we don't think it's ever too early to try to find betting value) as we haven't even had the draft and there can be a lot of changes during free agency, but let's see if we can find some value on the board.
Here are my very early value bets for next year's NBA title:
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[h=3]Oklahoma City Thunder (7-1)[/h]The part where I spoke of "uncertainty" has this as Exhibit A. Will the NBA's most-appealing free agent, Kevin Durant, leave Oklahoma City (or go home to the Washington Wizards) or will the Thunder be able to keep him, even if for only one more season to try to win a title with Russell Westbrook?
The Thunder upset the Spurs in the Western Conference semifinals and then had the Warriors on the ropes at 3-1 in the Western Conference finals, so they obviously are right there as top contenders if Durant sticks around. The move from 8-1 to 7-1 tells me that some sharp bettors were willing to speculate that Durant will stay, and honestly, that would be the main reason to bet the Thunder now (note: the move to 7-1 at the Westgate makes it a little less appealing, but 10-1 is available offshore and a sharp bettor should be able to find a better price, especially as more books add their 2016-17 futures).
[h=3]Toronto Raptors (25-1)[/h]The Raptors gave the Cavaliers a bit of a scare in the Eastern Conference finals by winning Games 3 and 4 at home to even the series at 2-2 before losing the next two games. They made big strides for a franchise that had never won a seven-game playoff series, by winning their first two series over the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat. The Raptors need to re-sign DeMar DeRozan to team with Kyle Lowry and are in need of a third star to go with their solid group of role players. They're not that far from being a legitimate title contender and the 25-1 price seems fair (or perhaps consider the 8-1 price to just win the Eastern Conference).
[h=3]Durant's potential landing spots[/h]There is widespread speculation of where Durant might sign, so much like the Summer of LeBron a few years ago, if you were to hear something that really has you believing you have the puzzle figured out, it might be worth a flier on that team -- especially if they seem intent on bringing in more players with Durant (as every franchise these days wants a big three). I also would make the caveat that an Eastern Conference team is far more appealing in terms of futures for Durant than if he joined another team in the West.
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- With the Cleveland Cavaliers completing their historic comeback to win the NBA Finals over the Golden State Warriors after trailing 3-1, the questions now are whether the Cavaliers can repeat, if the Warriors can bounce back and reclaim the crown or if another team can emerge to challenge the clear top two teams.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has had odds to win the 2016-17 NBA title since May 29, before the Finals started. The Warriors opened as the 3-2 favorites (+150 as a money line) and were actually been bet lower to 7-5 (+140) before being raised to 7-4 (+175) after losing on Sunday night. The Cleveland Cavaliers opened as the second choice at 5-2 and had been raised to 3-1 before being lowered to 5-2 after winning the title.
The San Antonio Spurs are a solid third choice at 6-1, while theOklahoma City Thunder opened at 8-1 and have been bet down to 7-1.
After that foursome, there aren't any other teams at single-digit odds.
Now, we know there is a lot of uncertainty when looking at these "too-early" odds (as some people call them, though we don't think it's ever too early to try to find betting value) as we haven't even had the draft and there can be a lot of changes during free agency, but let's see if we can find some value on the board.
Here are my very early value bets for next year's NBA title:
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=3]Oklahoma City Thunder (7-1)[/h]The part where I spoke of "uncertainty" has this as Exhibit A. Will the NBA's most-appealing free agent, Kevin Durant, leave Oklahoma City (or go home to the Washington Wizards) or will the Thunder be able to keep him, even if for only one more season to try to win a title with Russell Westbrook?
The Thunder upset the Spurs in the Western Conference semifinals and then had the Warriors on the ropes at 3-1 in the Western Conference finals, so they obviously are right there as top contenders if Durant sticks around. The move from 8-1 to 7-1 tells me that some sharp bettors were willing to speculate that Durant will stay, and honestly, that would be the main reason to bet the Thunder now (note: the move to 7-1 at the Westgate makes it a little less appealing, but 10-1 is available offshore and a sharp bettor should be able to find a better price, especially as more books add their 2016-17 futures).
[h=3]Toronto Raptors (25-1)[/h]The Raptors gave the Cavaliers a bit of a scare in the Eastern Conference finals by winning Games 3 and 4 at home to even the series at 2-2 before losing the next two games. They made big strides for a franchise that had never won a seven-game playoff series, by winning their first two series over the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat. The Raptors need to re-sign DeMar DeRozan to team with Kyle Lowry and are in need of a third star to go with their solid group of role players. They're not that far from being a legitimate title contender and the 25-1 price seems fair (or perhaps consider the 8-1 price to just win the Eastern Conference).
[h=3]Durant's potential landing spots[/h]There is widespread speculation of where Durant might sign, so much like the Summer of LeBron a few years ago, if you were to hear something that really has you believing you have the puzzle figured out, it might be worth a flier on that team -- especially if they seem intent on bringing in more players with Durant (as every franchise these days wants a big three). I also would make the caveat that an Eastern Conference team is far more appealing in terms of futures for Durant than if he joined another team in the West.
