Watch for Diamondback UNDERS at home, near future

[ChugsMcGee]

https://www.vsin.com/strange-but-true-playoff-stories/ (Story in last paragraph, link to audio - if someone can embed, thanks.)

So I was listening to Gil Alexander on VSIN (for the 5th time, if you're not listening to VSIN, you're missing out) yesterday and he mentioned that Dbacks will be installing a humidor to store their baseballs in. This is to reduce the number of homeruns in the ballpark (thus appeasing/luring pitchers.)

Rockies have been doing it since 2002 at Coors. Though, because of the thin air and the dimensions of the ballpark, it's still a hitters park, lots of extra base hits. Home runs have reduced by a significant percentage (I apologize, i don't remember the specific stats.)

It's unclear, but was speculated the humidor will be in effect at Chase Field by the end of the month. Chase is one of the better hitters parks in MLB. Expecting the same lower home run rate, and without the large dimensions of a Coors Field, runs should be at more of a premium.

Be on the lookout if books don't adjust quickly. May 1st-ish?

 

[ChugsMcGee]

I have not heard too much additional info or any confirmation that one has been installed. Just want to monitor and update.

Last home stand from 4/21-4/30, record was 6-4 to the over. About what you should expect; very small sample, homeruns still seemed to by flying out (8 in the final series with Rockies, though 6 of them were in G2). This is the first home stand of May, 9 games. Decent offenses with questionable bp's playing first 6. Great pitching matchup today (Verlander/Ray). O/U opened at 9 and bet down to 8.5, but guessing that's mostly due to your quality starters.

Going to continue to watch - no auto betting yet.

 

[ChugsMcGee]

2016: 2.73 hrs/game at Arizona

April: O/U 12-5 46 home runs over 17 games - 2.71 Hrs/game

May: Tigers 2 game series - O/U 1-1 5 home runs


I don't know if I'm going to find anything here, dealing with small sample sizes but going to try to track after each home series. We'll see. Definitely no signs of home runs being suppressed yet, with Upton's 460 foot HR blast Monday...but we'll see. Bring in the Pirates. "Pitching duel" today with an 8.5 O/U set.

(addt'l useless info so i don't have to do this again later, when i think of it... zero games with zero HRs so far, 6 games with only 1 home run still only 3-3 to the O/U)

 

[varkeyboy]

Thanks for the valuable info!

 

[ChugsMcGee]

Pretty sure it's not worth a damn just yet, but hopefully soon!

 

[Saints2016]

Thanks for taking the time to post. Will be interesting to follow this year

 

[Recon792]

has the humidor been installed?

 

[ChugsMcGee]

has the humidor been installed?

Haven't heard anything additional, and nothing on Google as far as I can find. Last I heard was "around the end of April." And how long do balls have to sit in a humidor before they are affected...i don't know that either.

 

[Recon792]

thanks Chugs

 

[varkeyboy]

Haven't heard anything additional, and nothing on Google as far as I can find. Last I heard was "around the end of April." And how long do balls have to sit in a humidor before they are affected...i don't know that either.

Gotcha........keep us updated!

 

[Recon792]

here is some humidor notes from Coors Field - -home of the Colorado Rockies that I found on the net:

"For the first seven seasons at Coors, there were 3.20 home runs per game compared to 1.93 per Rockies away game. However, starting in 2002 the Colorado Rockies began to store their baseballs in a humidor at a constant 50 percent relative humidity and 70F, as opposed to the more typical 30 percent humidity in Denver. During the period from 2002-2010, the Coors ratio decreased to 2.39, a reduction of 25 percent, while the away game ratio stayed essentially constant at 1.86."

 

[ChugsMcGee]

2016: 2.73 hrs/game at Arizona

April: O/U 12-5 46 home runs over 17 games - 2.71 Hrs/game

May: Tigers 2 game series - O/U 1-1 5 home runs
Pirates 4 game series - O/U 2-2 12 home runs (1,3,3,5)
Mets 3 game series - O/U 1-1-1 12 home runs (5,3,4)

(zero games with zero HRs so far, 7 games with only 1 home run still only 3-4 to the O/U)

Homers still flying, across the entire league actually and it's not even summer yet. No sign of home run suppression next two home stands in Arizona. Mets series went 1-1-1 but O/U was set at 9, 9 and 10. Runs scored was 10, 9, and 9. Vegas is good. G1 was set to go under until 4 home runs in the final 2 frames including 3 Dbacks HR's in the 8th.

Dbacks hit the road and then a 3 game series against the White Sox starts on Monday wraps up May at home.

 

[ChugsMcGee]

I don't use Twitter near enough evidently. Reached out to the Dbacks and asked if the humidor was in and done and they responded that it's still under construction. Asked when expected to be completed and they said there's no target date that they are aware of...where "they" is the Social Media Department, i assume.

So...we know it's not in and doesn't sound like it's before June. On the bright side, we may have a decent 2017 sample size to be able to identify any fluctuations better.

 

[Recon792]

thanks Chugs - -and yeah home runs are flying outta the parks
and runs being scored in bunches pretty much everywhere

 

[tmader7]

Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezus, you're telling me no one in the Zona organization smokes Cubans???!!!! This is no shit, I was over at a business associate's mansion in Tulsa one night, and he was showing off his new humidor.......I shit you not, walk in (guess he had limp dick syndrome and was competing with the wife's 4K square foot walk-in closet), every bit as many square feet as my garage (yeah, the one I store my old Ford Pinto high school pick-up machine in for those needing the extra laugh). I've never smoked (excuse me, "inhaled") any leafy material, so I'm like, WTF with the industrial size cigar preservation warehouse? I'll follow the thread Chugs, as a ChemEngr, makes a lot of sense, but if it actually works, those guys could have put in the means in no time flat, they got the bucks. Just sayin. GL

~T~

 

[ChugsMcGee]

I'll follow the thread Chugs, as a ChemEngr, makes a lot of sense, but if it actually works, those guys could have put in the means in no time flat, they got the bucks. Just sayin. GL

~T~

Who knows? We know one is being put in. We know the Rockies put one in and it significantly reduced HR's. We think a significant reduction in HR's at Chase field should have a significant affect on O/U's as, unlike with Coors, Chase is not as apt for doubles/triples with their dimensions (or so I'm told...) Interesting to watch, IMO, if nothing else. If we can beat the market on any adjustment, we'll be good to go.

2016: 2.73 hrs/game at Arizona

April: O/U 12-5 46 home runs over 17 games - 2.71 Hrs/game

May: Tigers 2 game series - O/U 1-1 5 home runs
Pirates 4 game series - O/U 2-2 12 home runs (1,3,3,5)
Mets 3 game series - O/U 1-1-1 12 home runs (5,3,4)
White Sox 3 game series - O/U 1-2 11 home runs (3,5,3)

May Totals: O/U 5-6-1, 40 HR's over 12 games - 3.33 HRs/game

(zero games with zero HRs so far, 7 games with only 1 home run still only 3-4 to the O/U)

May wraps up with a ton of HRs. White Sox series continues with a string of big O/U's of 9, 10.5 and 10. Two find the under. 3 Hrs in a 5-1 game in G1, and 5 HR's in G2 where 8 of the 9 runs scored were off the HR. Wild stuff how the ball is flying. Dbacks out of town until Tuesday the 6th for 6 games, starting with the lowly HR hitting Padres follow by the Brewers.

 

[ChugsMcGee]

...Also, starting to wonder if, with things going well, (they're winning games, Dbacks crushing HRs, Greinke looks like Greinke, Ray and Corbin look solid) that maybe they are delaying on purpose. IDK. Thinking about going back through and comparing HR's hit by Dbacks vs opponent to see if they are just outcrushing their opponents so no need right now to put in?

 

[tmader7]

If it ain't broke, sure as hell don't fix it, LOL.

~T~

 

[Saints2016]

...Also, starting to wonder if, with things going well, (they're winning games, Dbacks crushing HRs, Greinke looks like Greinke, Ray and Corbin look solid) that maybe they are delaying on purpose. IDK. Thinking about going back through and comparing HR's hit by Dbacks vs opponent to see if they are just outcrushing their opponents so no need right now to put in?

Who knows right? Gotta find any possible edge out there.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

The D-Backs have played 15 road games when the money line is +125 to -125. The under is 12-3 in those games. They're in that range tonight.