Warriors Play for March 7

[Inittowinit]

Starting to post regularly since Ive been doing well. I hate doing records, but Ill post my record just so I can keep track.
4-0

have an open parlay pending from that Warrior Celtic game winner


On to todays thoughts. After the Celtics victory, I think we all knew Warriors were going to be a huge favorite against the Hawks. It didnt help that the Trailblazers clobbered the Hawks couple nights ago either. Right now, the Warriors offense has been firing on ALL cylinders. Everyone, and I mean everyone is playing great. Klay has found his rythem, Lee playing tough, Bogut solid D, Curry (with the exception of his ball handleing) has been great, Iggy playing great D. Their bench has been a nice suprise as well. Theres no way Warriors lose this game, with this momentum and now coming home. I have that open parlay, Im going to put the Warriors money line to close this 2 team parlay.

Continuing my notes, as Im mentioning, theyre playing great ball. I think with them coming home, after this long 2 week, 6 game roadtrip, its going to feel great coming home. AND now facing the crappy Hawk team that has just been garbage of late. I mentioned on their last game the Celtic game was clearly not a spot for a let down (for those reasons I typed on that day). Today, I think it CAN be a let down. Typically, after long road trips, riding high, players can get too comfortable being back home they dont play sharp. I think this is the case today. I mentioned in previous paragraph Warriors are playing great and will not lose and I stand by that. HOWEVER, Hawks are an athletic team and are catching the Warriors at a good time to where I believe Warriors play "cocky". Theyre coming off a great roadtrip and have Phoenix coming up. Curry is notorious for this, but when he gets that crowd going he does too much and takes untimely shots. I believe Hawks will cover 1 of the halves. Which half I dont know. I dont know if warriors start STRONG then have that let down second half where the Hawks backdoor cover OR other way around where Warriors play lazy first half,then reality kicks in and they play the way they have been playing second half and take over.

What Im playing:

Definitly playing Warriors -460 to close out my previous open 2 team parlay.

Mar 07	NBA [822] G.S. WARRIORS -460
Mar 05	NBA [711] G.S. WARRIORS -240
Risking 250 USD To Win 173 USD

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Average bet for me is $100

Also, Im going to play Hawks 1H +5 for $100. IF Hawks do not cover, Im playing them for the 2H for $200.
Something else to look for, and I will post if I do this, but if Hawks cover first half. Look for Warriors to play STRONG D to take over 2H so take Hawks 2h tt under at the half.

Not sure if all this made sense but Ill post as I play. Ive been feeling scatter brained all day.
If you do not have that open parlay I had, Id suggest parlaying it with something else you like or keep it as an open parlay. Good luck to you all.

 

[Inittowinit]

So warriors looked good first half. I like that atlanta is fighting. I KNEW warriors were going to play hard for 1 half. I still believe my read. Warriors may take third quarter but watch for that backdoor cover. Im betting hawks 2h for $220 (doubling the loss for forst half). Still have my warrior moneyline parlay pending.

 

[Inittowinit]

Got it +.5.

 

[Inittowinit]

Wasnt pretty but two winners. Ill take it.6-0

 

[RedDirtRoad]

nice going, thanks for the writeup

 

[Bourn]

Nice work

 

[Smallplayer]

Anything for tonights warriors game?

 

[Inittowinit]

Anything for tonights warriors game?

Weekends are going to be tough for me to do write ups or post plays. Weekdays are always easy because im on the computer with my job. The crappy thing was I was hiking all day (and night) and actually did a write up via my phone and it deleted while this site does the auto refresh/save. Not sure if anyone else encounters that or if thats possible to turn off?

My write up (which doesnt really matter now) basically said that I was going to play Warriors moneyline again with an open parlay. I felt with the spread going from 7-9 that the oddsmakers were basically (just my thoughts) trying to find a spread where they felt Suns would cover. One of those situations where favorite wins but dog covers. Turns out it was right, but I didnt play the Suns spread because I personally only play dogs if I believe they could win outright. I didnt think Suns had a chance. In the write up I was saying, In an interview with Curry he said that their loss in PHoenix was still fresh in his mind and his teammates. Warriors WANTED this win badly and no way they were going to lose.

A trend I mentioned in my first post last week that is money that won again, play Warriors opponent team total under first half. If it loses double 2H. Warriors focus heavy on D at home and public perception/oddsmakers inflate line because of their highscoring ability.

Looking forward, Warriors have an AWESOME schedule. They have been playing and will be playing a lot of teams on their second leg of their back to back. Also, Warriors only have 1 game left out of their timezone. I said it before and Ill say it again, theyre going to make a huge run. I actually think they may end up as a top 3 seed believe it or not. Right now, theyre firing on all cylinders and even when theyre starters have off nights, their bench are playing soooo well they have been picking it up.

At the All star break, I played them to win Western Conference at +900. If my local puts the future bets back up, Ill add a bit more. I dont think they will WIN the conference finals but I do think they will get there. I plan on hedging once they get there.

 

[1FCKln]

I have to disagree. I don't think they will finish as a top 3 seed and they sure won't make the Conference finals in my opinion.

Do you really think they win back-to-back series against the likes of Houston / Clippers / OKC / Spurs ? They are a jump shooting team. In the playoffs you die by the jumper more often than you live by the jumper.

On top of it all, Mark Jackson is a bad coach. This team should have a better record right now.

 

[Inittowinit]

I have to disagree. I don't think they will finish as a top 3 seed and they sure won't make the Conference finals in my opinion.

Do you really think they win back-to-back series against the likes of Houston / Clippers / OKC / Spurs ? They are a jump shooting team. In the playoffs you die by the jumper more often than you live by the jumper.

On top of it all, Mark Jackson is a bad coach. This team should have a better record right now.

The top 3 seed is definatly a stretch. I said "may" be a top 3 seed. BUT, if YOU believe they should have a better record (which is what you said), they are a top 3 seed talent. If you look at theyre standings, they are ONLY 4 games out of the 3 spot and 6 out of the top spot. But in any case, its a possibility. Especially with their scheduling for the remaining games.

As far as how they will do in the playoffs. They have proven they CAN hang and beat the Houston, Okc and the Spurs. Only team I think they struggle with is the Clip.
Houston - Warriors went 1-2 against Houston this year. 1 of those losses was by 4 points and it was a close game all the way. Point being, they CAN hang with them and beat them. Theyre win against Houston they had a huge lead throughout the game. They fell apart in the last few minutes of the 4th and ended up going to OT. Most young teams would be discouraged and play bad, rather they ended up winning comfortably.

OKC - Warriors went 1-2 against OKC this year. BOTH losses were at OKC. One loss was by 1 point and the other by 6 points. Point being, the Warriors can hang with this team and can beat them.

Spurs- Warriors went 0-2 against spurs this year. Both losses were by 2 points. I think many Warrior followers think this is a bad matchup with them as well because they havnt proven to beat them. I disagree. Last year in the playoffs Warriors punched them HARD in the face. Warriors should have won that series. I think Warriors matchup great against them and EVERYTIME barely lost with a few bad breaks. If I see warriors play spurs this year in the playoffs, I will call it and post everywhere, they WILL beat them and I will bet that at +money big. Mark my words

Clippers- Warriors went 2-1 against the Clip. I still believe this is a bad match up with them. Ive heard numerous warrior beat writers talk about this as well. Too much athleticism for warriors along with strength.

For your argument about jumpshooting teams not doing well in the playoffs. Thats the EXACT reason I believe they will do well in playoffs is because of their jumpshooting. They have sooooo much depth in that, if one slumps another can pick it up. Also, Bulls during there run were a jump shooting team with solid defense. That is exactly what the warriors are trying to do.

In the end, I think they CAN make the Western Conf finals especially how they can hang and beat the top contenders. AND if theyre giving me +900 to bet that, Ill take it everytime.

 

[1FCKln]

Well, you lost me with at the point where you compare the Golden State Warriors of this season with maybe the greatest team ever - the Bulls with Jordan and Pippen.

If you look at the standings, they are only 3 games in front of the 9th spot as well. But I don't doubt that they will make the playoffs as 5th or 6th seed.

I think, you see things through rose-colored glasses a bit here. But that's no problem, after all, you are a warriors fan and you have been on the money the last week about their games.

Do you think Mark Jackson is a good coach?

 

[Inittowinit]

Well, you lost me with at the point where you compare the Golden State Warriors of this season with maybe the greatest team ever - the Bulls with Jordan and Pippen.

If you look at the standings, they are only 3 games in front of the 9th spot as well. But I don't doubt that they will make the playoffs as 5th or 6th seed.

I think, you see things through rose-colored glasses a bit here. But that's no problem, after all, you are a warriors fan and you have been on the money the last week about their games.

Do you think Mark Jackson is a good coach?

Ha...Tooshay. . Yeah, didnt mean to compare warriors to the bulls like that. I was implying that jumpshooting teams can suceed in playoffs. Funny thing is Im not a warrior fan. Im a Pistons fan that lives in the bay area. Im just exposed to all the games and listen to a lot of sports talk. I also work part time with CSN, warriors network so Im around a lot of Warrior employees and at the games sometime. I think theyre an exciting team and I see a lot of promise and potential with them. I enjoy gambling on their games because I am exposed to more with them than the average bettor or handicapper.

So, my opinion on Mark Jackson. I think he gets a very bad rap. The media here RIPS him daily and I mentioned last week that their expectation on this team is atleast 2nd round. If they dont make playoffs, I guarantee you mark jackson will be fired and gone. I like his coaching style and think it works well with these players. He emphasizes heavily on defense which if you look at rest of nba, they dont play. He trusts his players a lot in their strengths and consistantly tells them to continue to shoot even when they slump. I think with a young team like this it helps their confidence. His biggest weakness is his play callings coming from time outs. The kings current coach (name slips my mind) was the warriors bench coach last year and drew up the x's and o's from time outs. It was a pretty bad loss to lose him. Im not sure who's drawing up the plays now, but if its Jackson, thats horrible.

Curious what your thoughts on the warriors and Mark Jackson are since you are outside of California? I know you mentioned theyre not top 3 seed. Where do you see them?

 

[1FCKln]

I am in Germany, so an ocean is between us

I really see them only winning one playoff-round and that depends on their seeding. If they finish 6th and have to play Houston or LAC (assuming Spurs and OKC are the top seeds), they won't make it out of the first round. I can see them beating Portland but none of the 4 mentioned teams in a series.