Want your team to win the Super Bowl? It's easy. (Details inside)

BigLou+ · Apr 23, 2003

If you want your team to win the Super Bowl, all you have to do is ask one simple question. How long has the current head coach been with the team? If he has been there at least six seasons and has not had his hands wrapped around the Vince Lombardi trophy at least once by seasons end, fire him. That's right, fire his sorry ass. I don't care of it's Dan Reeves, Jim Fassel, Bill Cowher or Jeff Fisher. If you're not sporting a Super Bowl ring on one of your fingers after six seasons, it's time to hit the bricks because no coach entering his seventh season or more with the same team over the past ten years has won it all. The days of staying with the one team for an extended period of time and winning a championship are over.

I broke down the average tenure coaches had when they won the Super Bowl over the past thirty years, and my how times have changed.

From 1973-1982, the average length of service a coach had with a team the year they won the Super Bowl was 7.1 years. Don Shula, John Madden, Tom Landry and Chuck Noll were some of the big names during that span.

Between 1983-1992, the number dropped down to an average of 6 seasons. Bill Walsh, Joe Gibbs and Bill Parcells combined to win six of the 10 Super Bowls during that period.

Then, in 1993, free agency began. During the first five years from '93-'97, the average dropped to 4.2 seasons. The last five seasons it has really taken a nose dive, dropping down to just 2.4 average years of service.

Anybody still wondering why Steve Mariucci got canned by the 49'ers, despite his regular season record of 57-39? Six seasons, no Super Bowl. Next.

Big Lou

[This message was edited by Big Lou on 04-23-03 at 11:26 PM.]

johnnie2times · Apr 24, 2003

Steve could not train Lassie to sit.He was not exciting at all and could not win a playoff game.

Fat Albert aka Dennis Green was another guy that was there for years and could only win I think 3 playoff games a gift from the Giants at the Meadowland, beating a 7-9 Cardinal team and opening up Dallas's a-hole.

Wheres the big loser Jerry Glanville?

SixthSense · Apr 24, 2003

Nice work Lou.

What happens if you ignore the team and just look at how many years the guy has been coaching? Does this change it at all?

In regard to Denny Green, he is an interesting subject. First, Denny did more to hurt himself by not talking to the media than by talking to the media. Mike Tice now has a radio and tv show. People love the fact he is very honest. I love it because he gives me good information on the team each week which helps me win my bets.

Denny ended up going 97-62 during the regular season with four division titles and three second place finishes. He went 4-8 in the playoffs and that was his downfall.

Bud, during the first ten years (equal to Denny's term) went 98-38-3 and was only 8-8 in the playoffs. After the first ten years, Grant was just a .500 coach, going 60-58.

Green was never good enough to win a SB, although let's face it, he did everything he could to get them to the SB in '98 but Gary Anderson, who hadn't missed a field goal all year missed the game winner.

I depise the Vikings but Green gets a bad rap, for the most part. He brought a lot of that on himself so I don't feel sorry for him. But he is an interesting character.

If you told most teams they could have a head coach for the next ten years who will win 61% of his regular season games, which equates to almost 10 wins a season, win the division four times and finish second three times and go to two NFC Championship games, I think most teams would take that in a heart beat.

BigLou+ · Apr 24, 2003

Sixth Sense,

There will be a few more additions to this thread over the next couple of days. Feel free to add any of your input, as it is always welcome.

Big Lou

SixthSense · Apr 24, 2003

Lou - While looking up the Grant era, I remembered you talking about using the files at the library.

While the Pro Football Encyclopedia doesn't include boxscores from regular season games, it does contain over 2000 pages of unbelievable history.

If you don't have it you might want to consider spending the $60 or so to get it. One warning, make sure you have a strong bookcase because this thing is heavy.

I'll add as we go and I have time. Thanks. Always enjoy these type of discussions.

BigLou+ · Apr 24, 2003

More head coaching info...

It used to be that a guy in his first ever NFL coaching stint was the way to win championships.

Between 1966-1996, only two teams won a Super Bowl led by a guy who was previously the coach of an NFL team. In 1968, Weeb Ewbank, former coach of the Baltimore Colts, led his Jets to a 16-7 upset over the heavily favored Colts. In 1972-73, Don Shula, also a former Colts head coach, led the Miami Dolphins to back to back championship titles. Every other team during that 31 year run was led by a first time NFL head coach.

Over the past six seasons, it's been the complete opposite, as Brian Billick is the only first time NFL head coach to win it all since 1997. Mike Shanahan, Dick Vermeil, Bill Belichick and Jon Gruden all were coaching their second team.

So, if the current NFL trend continues this season, that means a team led by a coach in his fourth year or less with a particular team and on his second coaching stint will win the Super Bowl. Here is a list of the teams that fall into that category:

Detroit Lions (Mariucci)
Houston Texans (Capers)
Indianapolis Colts (Dungy)
Miami Dolphins (Wannstedt)
New England Patriots (Belichick)
San Francisco 49'ers (Erickson)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Gruden)

Big Lou

jeffrey01 · Apr 25, 2003

big lou nice post

lou you said a comment about phillys big chance of winning it all was last year. i agree.

FOOTBALL HAS CHANGED

i belive now with free agency & salary cap that there are 2 completely different situation a team can be.

rebuilding years or seriously going all out to "buy" or play for the superbowl(could be player or coach)

with free agency and salary cap it forces teams to tear down and reuild and over & over again

now they are 2 types of coaches

coach to rebuild & coach to win now
( a big time coach with his ego wants to rebuild to fit him. but this takes alot of time and while a nobody rookie coach can maybe win it all easier if the team is set up to win now)

football is now where timing, maturation of players,systems has to fit perfectly in a short window of opportunity to win it all. who ever comes closest wins that year

teams will have a 3-5 window to win or free agency & salary cap will blow it up

johnnie2times · Apr 25, 2003

Lou take Bellichek and Gruden out and you really have a bunch of garbage wrapped up there.I will pass on all of that.

Hey by the way is Tice or Holgrem 4 years or less?

BigLou+ · May 11, 2003

Sticking with the coaching aspect for a second, let's see if any team has won a Super Bowl led by a guy who was coaching a college team the previous season. Nope. Sorry Denny, maybe next year for you and the 49'ers.

Now we're down to six.

I see the Houston Texans are still on this list. Has any team in their second year of existence ever won the Vince Lombardi trophy? Nope. Sorry Texans fans.

Five.

Also noticed the Detroit Lions are still on the list. Has a team that has only won five games the previous two seasons combined ever won the big one? Nope. The 1981 49'ers won a total of eight games the two years leading up to their first Super Bowl victory and the 1997-98 Rams won a toal of nine before busting out in 1999. Sorry Mooch.

Four.

The Indianapolis Colts are still here. The last time I saw them play was the Wild Card round of the 2002 playoffs. The Jets smacked them 41-0. I wonder if a team that got shutout in their last playoff game has ever won a Super Bowl? Yes. It's actually happened three times.

The '85 Bears, '86 Giants & '87 Redskins all got shutout in their last playoff game the previous season. But a closer look shows all three teams were shutout by the eventual Super Bowl champion. And I don't think the 2002 Jets won it all last season so that knocks out Dungy, Manning & Co.

So that leaves us with the following three teams:

Miami Dolphins (Wannstedt)
New England Patriots (Belichick)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Gruden)

Big Lou

johnnie2times · May 12, 2003

Thanks Lou, but I will pass on your teams.I wish you luck though....

BigLou+ · May 20, 2003

johnnie2times · May 21, 2003

Bump for what Lou? The only thing to bump is Miami for starters off that list.

BigLou+ · May 21, 2003

j2x,

I bumped it up for ChadC. Relax man.

Also, don't be afraid to drop your bias against Dave Wannstedt. While I believe he doesn't have what it takes to win a championship, I also felt that way when I heard Bill Belichick was the new coach of the Patriots. You have to keep an open mind Fat Bob or a golden opportunity could slip right past you.

Big Lou

ChadC · May 23, 2003

Thanks Lou, that's very interesting. As an unfortunate Lions fan at heart I hope Mariucci can put it together now. I still think he's one of the top coaches in the league, but we'll see. Anything's better then Morenwhig's dumb country ass though.

cowboys · May 29, 2003

Dallas Cowboys

Parcells

BigLou+ · May 30, 2003

Thanks for your informative and well thought out reply as to why the Cowboys are going to win the Super Bowl. It's in depth analysis like yours that helps anyone looking to make a future wager. Again, thanks for all your input.

Big Lou

BigLou+ · Jun 16, 2003

I got it down to three teams, leaning towards Tampa.

Big Lou

ChadC · Jun 18, 2003

I like New England to come back strong this year.

BigLou+ · Jul 24, 2003

Go.

Big Lou

bblight · Jul 25, 2003

Let's take this a step farther; Denver marked the end of the old way with their back to back wins in '97 and '98 and St Louis ushered in the new salary cap/ free agency era.

Over the past 4 seasons, the combined prior year W/L record of the SB champs is 21-28 as follows:

Tampa Bay 9 8
New England 5 11
Baltimore 8 8
St Louis 4 12

As BigLou says, the one thing they all have in common is their coaches tenure; short timers all.

So here is the list of most probable teams based on record:

Atlanta 10 7
Denver 9 7
NY Jets 10 8
Miami 9 7
New England 9 7
Kansas City 8 8
San Francisco 11 7
Cleveland 9 8
NY Giants 10 7
New Orleans 9 7
Indianapolis 10 7
St Louis 7 9
Baltimore 7 9
San Diego 8 8
Buffalo 8 8
Carolina 7 9
Washington 7 9
Seattle 7 9
Jacksonville 6 10
Minnesota 6 10
Chicago 4 12
Cincinnati 2 14
Dallas 5 11

Next step is to remove coaches that have been with their teams 3 or more years and we should have the group of most likely contenders:

NY Jets 10 8
Kansas City 8 8
San Francisco 11 7
Cleveland 9 8
New Orleans 9 7
Indianapolis 10 7
San Diego 8 8
Buffalo 8 8
Carolina 7 9
Washington 7 9
Jacksonville 6 10
Minnesota 6 10
Dallas 5 11

Well there it is - according to recent history, the next Super Bowl champ is most likely to come out of this unseemly group of has beens and also rans.

Good luck!