want to start an RLM thread.....

[rivercitybirdie]

hi all... haven't seen an RLM thread this season (maybe i missed it).....

i am hoping to start one and present it here. i have a few questions......

is there a site considered the "gold standard" on public betting %? i seem to recall there was one alot of people used but i can't remember its name.

what types of rules should i use? i guess i can just play around with % bet and line movement thresholds....

purely a background question but where do the sites get the % bet on each team data from? (i realize it's % of bettors as dollars generally have to match)

thx in advance for any help

 

[d3nv3r]

zcode line reversals (google it) is what I use. It's definitely helped me pick better ml's in mlb and nhl but I don't recommend it for football. It does help when you want to go big on a play. I like it for dogs especially.

 

[sendacash]

Its not that complicated really, you see a heavy % of bets on one side and they line goes the other way = RLM. You are not going to get rich doing this, but prob won't go broke as well. There's a number of different sites that have this info, Sportsinsights is probably the most popular one. There's several articles on their site that go over the theory you can take a look at and if you have ESPN insider they post plays there as well, although that is geared mostly towards the NFL. There's some other sources of bet % such as pregame, I think scoresandodds and there was another one someone posted last year that was not a betting site but had really high volume and tracked very closely to Sportsinsights. I lost the link to that one, had a hard drive crash. I usually try to put a few RLM tickets on my card every week, its not a bad starting point if you want to just take all those that qualify and cap from there.

 

[tmader7]

I would recommend using Pinny for your line movement, those guys are pretty sharp.

~T~

 

[sendacash]

I would recommend using Pinny for your line movement, those guys are pretty sharp.

~T~

I think Sportsinsights wrote an article about that on their site, called the "Pinnacle lean" or something like that. Might be more NFL related though.

 

[tmader7]

QL just posted. Back in I think 2009, he started a thread on this and Pinny was the book benchmark. I researched it and those guys move lines to slaughter the lambs, uncanny shit. I've actually hit several this season, there's gold in them hills if you do the homework. But I've not noticed a difference between college and pros with them. They get overloaded on a side and think the bettors are off, they'll drop that damn line like no other, I've seen them do 3+ points to fill the nets to overflow.

~T~

 

[sendacash]

I've noticed that Bovada does something weird with their lines as well. I no longer play there but just check their lines once in a while and it seems every team I like has extra juice attached, it hard to believe but true. Yeah I've heard that from people before if you like a side and you check the odds and find that Pinny is offering favorable odds on that game you might want to reconsider that play.

 

[tmader7]

I had to take a few between the cheeks before reality set in and I realized that if you're considering turning right and they're going left, time to change your mind.

~T~

 

[d3nv3r]

I think Sportsinsights wrote an article about that on their site, called the "Pinnacle lean" or something like that. Might be more NFL related though.

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/onlinesportsbookreviews/fl/The-Pinnacle-Lean.htm

 

[sendacash]

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/onlinesportsbookreviews/fl/The-Pinnacle-Lean.htm

Yeah, that's where I saw it d3nv3r. Some good info on that about.com site as well. Go Broncos!

 

[rivercitybirdie]

Its not that complicated really, you see a heavy % of bets on one side and they line goes the other way = RLM. You are not going to get rich doing this, but prob won't go broke as well. There's a number of different sites that have this info, Sportsinsights is probably the most popular one. There's several articles on their site that go over the theory you can take a look at and if you have ESPN insider they post plays there as well, although that is geared mostly towards the NFL. There's some other sources of bet % such as pregame, I think scoresandodds and there was another one someone posted last year that was not a betting site but had really high volume and tracked very closely to Sportsinsights. I lost the link to that one, had a hard drive crash. I usually try to put a few RLM tickets on my card every week, its not a bad starting point if you want to just take all those that qualify and cap from there.

thanks... i do know what it is in general.... was just looking for the best source for % bet.... i think sportsinsights was what i was thinking of.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

i did saturday's games......58% or more public on one team. line moved at least 2 points the "wrong way"

here's what i have:

georgia W
Kent State L
UCLA L

a bunch were close to those parameters..... no real trend though. wins/losses cancelled out for the most part.

 

[Johnnyreb]

I would use pinny and bovada for the pinny lean angle , and I would make sure there is at least a two point discrepancy.. Biggest one I noticed was the Giants vs Houston in nfl earlier.. Giants was the play according to the lean and they covered easily.. Think it was a three point difference..

 

[rivercitybirdie]

all i see setting up right now is taking oregon vs washington... more bettors on UW but 1.5 point better line.... doesn't qualify yet, and plan on closing vs opening line RLM anyway

 

[rivercitybirdie]

ok, for this week i see oregon, new mexico, nc, kent state.....hope i got those right... using 58%, 2 point wrong move, close vs open only... didn't religiously check midweek games but didn't notice a rlm play. willdouble check.. sorry ipad typing

 

[sendacash]

This is somewhat of a strange week as far as RLM games go as the public seems to be backing lots of dogs this week. We've even sen cases of "Reverse RLM" whereby the public backs the dog and the line goes the other way like the Houston game last night along with Maryland and Bama today. Games that I noted with hints of RLM, I don't really have any "set" rules when it comes to this are: West Va, Tulane, Kansas, New Mex, SMU. I try to avoid the MAC, but I suppose you could throw Ohio and Western Mich in there if you don't and maybe Kent St as well. Some teams are just too bad to back imo, such as SMU and maybe New Mexico.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

hmmm..... I think I grade those RLM teams as going 4-0..... hoope that's right (both the picks and the grading) but I think it is.

sendacash, your comment seems to suggest RLM only applies to large % backing favorites??? ....... agree on the MAC and horrible team comments.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

all i saw this week is SMU... which is looking like an L....

two more that came close. forgot what they are though. will post them for interest but not record.... saturday games only.

 

[quantumleap]

QL just posted. Back in I think 2009, he started a thread on this and Pinny was the book benchmark. I researched it and those guys move lines to slaughter the lambs, uncanny shit. I've actually hit several this season, there's gold in them hills if you do the homework. But I've not noticed a difference between college and pros with them. They get overloaded on a side and think the bettors are off, they'll drop that damn line like no other, I've seen them do 3+ points to fill the nets to overflow.

~T~

The original thread was posted in the NFL forum by Don Dollar$. A bunch of us went a couple years following his rules. I think I ended up even so I eventually stopped doing it.

The biggest problem I had was getting reliable consensus. You might get reliable number of bets but I'm pretty sure the total money on one side is pretty hard to find. I tried using Matchbook numbers but never got it down.