This one is a no brainer at all. NOT EVEN CLOSE
Of course you take the -2.5 -124.. By a country mile, too. Here is why.
If you play it at pick -154, you will win very close to 55% in this game. At 55% and laying -154, you'd end up losing 14.3% on every dollar..
At -2.5 -124, you'd end up only losing about 4.5% ONLY on every dollar. It's 3.5 times better to bet the -2.5, seeing the game landing on 1 and 2 is not common and just not worth the extra 31 cents..