^ these are my 'system plays' that are also supported with fundamental (statistical) handicapping, and i will call them the 'system plays' from now on. all plays are to win one unit.
the following will be 1 unit plays based on something i do every season. fade ranked teams in some specific situations. here are the ranked teams that i believe will be challenged ATS in week 1.
Fade Virginia Tech (PLAY: ECU +10 BUY HALF POINT)
Glennon can not be trusted. Especially without Ore to help in the backfield and top 4 recievers from last year. Virginia Tech lost 8 defensive players from last year's squad due to NFL drafting/signing. That tells us how good that defense was and how much that same defense lost this season.
Fade Michigan (PLAY: UTAH +3.5)
Way too many question marks offensively for Michigan. New coach, new system, and lots of returning starters on defense, that was not great last season. And to make things worse, this is Utah's make or break game. Yes, it is already their game of the year. The only real challenges for Utah after this game will be their home games vs TCU and BYU...and maybe, just maybe, that road game @Air Force. They win @Michigan and the perfect season is in their own hands.
Fade Auburn (PLAY: LA MONROE +25.5)
Auburn is ranked too high for a team that had no passing game last season (and basically no offense whatsoever), doesn't know who the starting QB will be, all that combined with a new offensive system.
LA Monroe closed the 2007 season very strong and won @ Alabama in the process. They have most of their starters back and will be a solid Sun Belt team this season.
Fade Texas (PLAY: FAU +24)
McCoy is under a lot of pressure after a bad showing last season and could be outplayed by Rusty Smith who was great for FAU last year. Texas has been slow out of gate in Colt McCoy's era, and last season alone, he had three straight bad showings to start the season, without really being challenged by a good QB or a good defense.
Fade Pittsburgh (PLAY: BOWLING GREEN +13)
It's not like Pittsburgh was not talented in last few seasons under Dave Wannstedt. It is more about a bad coach that makes bad decisions week after week. I just can not trust his team until they prove me wrong. Bowling Green is good enough offensively to challenge Pittsburgh's solid defense.
Fade LSU (Play: App.State +24.5)
LSU without Dorsey, Hester, Doucet, Flynn, Perrilloux will not be the same. LSU has been able to reload year after year but you don't replace these guys easily. And their opponent will not be scared of them. We are talking about the three time defending FCS champion, ranked #1 (again), bringing most of their starters back, and a nice memory of their 34-32 win @ Michigan last year.
in 2006, with Colt, Texas won
56-7, 52-7, 37-14, 56-3
last year they lost most of the OL and Colt struggled with bad protection.
they return most of their OL and will be much stronger.
FAU is no stranger to getting blown out on the road by BCS teams either.
Schnellenberger called Texas soft which didnt sit well with the Horns.
just an FYI. i know it's a system so you cant cherry pick the plays. Texas will be better this season though.
