I always find myself on the other betting side of Phil Hughes. He throws a light ball and has a terrible GB% (high 20's to low 30's). Pitching to contact isn't always a bad thing, but if you can't keep it on the ground it can get you in some serious trouble. He's also lost about 1.5mph off of his fastball nearly every year he's been in the league, so where a 97mph fastball can fool some one in 2010, 93mph gets a little tougher to do so. Jesse Chavez hasn't always been a great pitcher, or even a good one. Since he's gotten some work in with the A's above average coaching staff though, he's worked out his mechanics into what could be a dominant form. He's gotten rid of a slider that wasn't working for him and added a cutter to his arsenal. This helps with players batting on the opposite side of the plate, and has helped his numbers immensely.
Adding:
RAYS TT OVER 4.5(-110) 3 Units
The Rays have seen plenty of Guthrie. He's started 21 games against them (more than any other club). In starts against the Rays, Guthrie is 7-11 with an ERA of 4.03 and a WHIP of 1.41. Amazingly enough, the numbers are even worse in home starts against them. The Rays bats (and possibly the Royals bats) are poised to come to life after being stymied all of last night. The weather is great for it. Sunny, low-70's, with the wind pushing out to dead center at 20mph. The ball should carry enough to punish Guthrie for the amount of base runners he allows against TB. My numbers have the Rays scoring 6 runs.
RAYS TT OVER 4.5(-110) 3 Units
The Rays have seen plenty of Guthrie. He's started 21 games against them (more than any other club). In starts against the Rays, Guthrie is 7-11 with an ERA of 4.03 and a WHIP of 1.41. Amazingly enough, the numbers are even worse in home starts against them. The Rays bats (and possibly the Royals bats) are poised to come to life after being stymied all of last night. The weather is great for it. Sunny, low-70's, with the wind pushing out to dead center at 20mph. The ball should carry enough to punish Guthrie for the amount of base runners he allows against TB. My numbers have the Rays scoring 6 runs.
Lucas Harrell has some very hittable stuff, and the Jays have seen it well. The lineup as a whole is 12 of 24 against him with 3 XBH. Dome conditions aren't very helpful for pitchers either. Morrow's stuff is flat and not hard to see. Against the Astros in one start Morrow went 6 innings, gave up 9 hits, and 4 runs. I think this game will go over 9 for the game, but let's not leave it up to the bullpens, both of which aren't terrible.
