I'm back from a two-day break. I reworked most of my pitching numbers, having reached the 70 batter mark for most starting arms. This, to me, is a sample large enough to get a look at different percentage stats such as K% and GB%. That being said, there are a handful of guys on the mound today that have seen sizable improvements (Eovaldi, Cosart, Lohse) and declines (Samardzija, Tillman) in their % stats. Here's what I'm playing.
ASTROS +135 3 Units
The surface numbers are not great for Jarred Cosart this season. His 7.36 ERA is a poor representation of his skills and ability, and are inflated due to the shelling he took in Oakland on his last start. His xERA is 4.28, and even that is inflated by an uncharacteristically high display of HR/FB at 20%, which will do doubt have some serious decline to (if not below) the league average of 10.5% . What I like about Jarred Cosart is what he has done with his skill set and pitch selection in the offseason. Last season, Cosart had some early success in throwing a heavy regiment of fastballs (and why not, when it tops out at 98mph). However this early success morphed into a predictability that could be seen on tape and in the box. In the offseason he's reworked his cutter and breaking ball, and in his first few starts has not been afraid to use them. The new cutter has added an artful punch out pitch to his arsenal. Not only did he add a bit more velocity to it, the pitch is now biting over a inch more (per PitchFx) when compared to last year's cutter. There's no doubt that he is aware of how effective this pitch has become. His cutter now accounts for 59.9% of his pitch selection as opposed to last year's 34%. His curveball has also added movement, and he's using it slightly more than last year. Not surprisingly, this all has improved his K% (13.4 in 2013 to 20.3 in 2014). Cosart's GB% has improved to 61.8% this year as well. On the mound for the M's today is the freakishly tall, Chris Young. Young's 3.27 ERA may lead you to believe he is a bit more effective than he actually has been this season. A 1.55 WHIP and a GB% of 34.2 are a bit alarming even though Young has always been a bit of a flyball pitcher. His K/9 has dropped dramatically from 6.26 to 3.27 since the last time he's seen MLB action. All of this points to what I've observed to be the inability of teams to hurt Young for his slip ups. This shows in his xERA of 6.24 this season. The huge contrast in surface numbers for both starting pitchers is great news for us in getting a side at +135 that my numbers show being no less than -115. I like the Astros here.
May add more later.
ASTROS +135 3 Units
The surface numbers are not great for Jarred Cosart this season. His 7.36 ERA is a poor representation of his skills and ability, and are inflated due to the shelling he took in Oakland on his last start. His xERA is 4.28, and even that is inflated by an uncharacteristically high display of HR/FB at 20%, which will do doubt have some serious decline to (if not below) the league average of 10.5% . What I like about Jarred Cosart is what he has done with his skill set and pitch selection in the offseason. Last season, Cosart had some early success in throwing a heavy regiment of fastballs (and why not, when it tops out at 98mph). However this early success morphed into a predictability that could be seen on tape and in the box. In the offseason he's reworked his cutter and breaking ball, and in his first few starts has not been afraid to use them. The new cutter has added an artful punch out pitch to his arsenal. Not only did he add a bit more velocity to it, the pitch is now biting over a inch more (per PitchFx) when compared to last year's cutter. There's no doubt that he is aware of how effective this pitch has become. His cutter now accounts for 59.9% of his pitch selection as opposed to last year's 34%. His curveball has also added movement, and he's using it slightly more than last year. Not surprisingly, this all has improved his K% (13.4 in 2013 to 20.3 in 2014). Cosart's GB% has improved to 61.8% this year as well. On the mound for the M's today is the freakishly tall, Chris Young. Young's 3.27 ERA may lead you to believe he is a bit more effective than he actually has been this season. A 1.55 WHIP and a GB% of 34.2 are a bit alarming even though Young has always been a bit of a flyball pitcher. His K/9 has dropped dramatically from 6.26 to 3.27 since the last time he's seen MLB action. All of this points to what I've observed to be the inability of teams to hurt Young for his slip ups. This shows in his xERA of 6.24 this season. The huge contrast in surface numbers for both starting pitchers is great news for us in getting a side at +135 that my numbers show being no less than -115. I like the Astros here.
May add more later.
