Great day yesterday, going 2-0 (+5 Units) and winning my "off the record parlay" of my two leans. Today's card is decent.
1st 5 Innings - WHITE SOX -0.5 (-120) 3 Units
I am a Chris Sale fan. He has a four pitch arsenal of potential put away pitches, a 47% GB, and 9.5 K/9. He sets everything up with his fastball, then adds speed on his 2-seam, and shuts the door with either the slider or changeup. With the exception of Ryan Raburn and Carlos Santana, this Indians lineup has some problems against Sale (.208 average). However, I can't pretend like this play isn't more about Carlos Carrasco, because it is. In his first start this season, against the Twins, he went 5.2 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, and allowed 5 runs (4 earned). I will add that all the damage was done early and he settled in to eventually striking out 7 batters, and retired the last 14 he faced. For us, this is ok, as we intend to hit him early and often. In the past three seasons, against the White Sox, Carrasco has started 3 games with an ERA of 7.71, giving up more hits than innings pitched. The White Sox lineup, against Carrasco, has a .339 average and a .403 OBP.
REDSOX -1.5 (+120) 2 Units
Sabathia FADE!! Captain Crunch is the new posterboy for weigh watchers. He's lost 30+ pounds of body fat and with it 5-6mph in velocity from his pitches. CC was already in dying star mode last year, posting a 6.08 ERA after the All Star break. In 5 starts against Boston last year he gave up 23 ER in 26.1 IP, and I imagine it will get worse this year. Jon Lester is off to a better April than he's used to. In his first two starts of the season, he's gone 14.1 IP and has given up 4 ER, with one walk in each game (showing his control is there early). His fastball is in mid-season form topping off at 96 and he's throwing it for strikes. The only bats in this Yanks lineup that have had previous success against Lester are in or nearing their last years in the MLB. Last year, against the Yankees, Lester went 2-1 in 4 starts, with an ERA of 3.29 and a opponents average of .233. I like the Sox to win by 2-3 runs.
May have more later..
1st 5 Innings - WHITE SOX -0.5 (-120) 3 Units
I am a Chris Sale fan. He has a four pitch arsenal of potential put away pitches, a 47% GB, and 9.5 K/9. He sets everything up with his fastball, then adds speed on his 2-seam, and shuts the door with either the slider or changeup. With the exception of Ryan Raburn and Carlos Santana, this Indians lineup has some problems against Sale (.208 average). However, I can't pretend like this play isn't more about Carlos Carrasco, because it is. In his first start this season, against the Twins, he went 5.2 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, and allowed 5 runs (4 earned). I will add that all the damage was done early and he settled in to eventually striking out 7 batters, and retired the last 14 he faced. For us, this is ok, as we intend to hit him early and often. In the past three seasons, against the White Sox, Carrasco has started 3 games with an ERA of 7.71, giving up more hits than innings pitched. The White Sox lineup, against Carrasco, has a .339 average and a .403 OBP.
REDSOX -1.5 (+120) 2 Units
Sabathia FADE!! Captain Crunch is the new posterboy for weigh watchers. He's lost 30+ pounds of body fat and with it 5-6mph in velocity from his pitches. CC was already in dying star mode last year, posting a 6.08 ERA after the All Star break. In 5 starts against Boston last year he gave up 23 ER in 26.1 IP, and I imagine it will get worse this year. Jon Lester is off to a better April than he's used to. In his first two starts of the season, he's gone 14.1 IP and has given up 4 ER, with one walk in each game (showing his control is there early). His fastball is in mid-season form topping off at 96 and he's throwing it for strikes. The only bats in this Yanks lineup that have had previous success against Lester are in or nearing their last years in the MLB. Last year, against the Yankees, Lester went 2-1 in 4 starts, with an ERA of 3.29 and a opponents average of .233. I like the Sox to win by 2-3 runs.
May have more later..
