Vegas "trap" games

[rowdy]

I'd be careful in predicting Vegas "trap" games. Yesterday I saw several posts to some extent about that same thing in the games with Louisville, Pittsburgh, Michigan State & No Iowa.

The theory being higher ranked team or what appears to be the better team giving small numer or even getting 1 or 2 on the road. All 4 road teams won and fairly easily at that. Seems like the home court advanatge not being as big of a factor as in the past when the better teams on the road. There were several games during the week where the road team did well covering a small spread.

My point imo would be if you evaluate a game and think the visiting team should cover by bigger number than what Vegas sets the line at then don't bet them because you think it's some kind of "trap".

 

[otschamp]

Here is a trap game for ya today

Stay away from Notre Dame game today. Just some friendly advice.

 

[GoYanksGo]

I agree and I am working on tuesdays board already and I have a huge trap game that will definitely be my POD........DEFINITELY!!!!!!

 

[rowdy]

Actually like Notre Dame tonight, I think this line is about right. Marquette has not played the upper half of the Big East yet with exception of WV at home while Notre Dame has played 3 of the top 4 or 5 in the Big east in it's last 3 games (granted 0-3 vs them). I just don't seeing them dropping 4 in a row and 2 in a row at home.

OU to me would fall under what some perceive as the "trap" game tonight (like OU as well).

 

[homedawg]

no such thing as a trap

 

[In2Win]

^^BS i stuck my finger in a mouse trap today :nohead:

 

[jdigae01]

ND vs Marquette is the prime game tonight, and people are loving marquette for some reason.

lets not forget ND played a good first half against uconn before finally just falling apart.

 

[Greenbacks]

I believe in traps....No doubt about it

Vegas knows the deal

 

[Greenbacks]

ND vs Marquette is the prime game tonight, and people are loving marquette for some reason.

lets not forget ND played a good first half against uconn before finally just falling apart.

People are loving Marquette?
You mean the people are loving the Irish
Public is on the Irish 63% at my site.

 

[Greenbacks]

no such thing as a trap

You were caught in the Alabama trap on Saturday

Believe in traps because they are there...Maybe not everyday.

 

[a153]

I believe in traps....No doubt about it

Vegas knows the deal

thats why you lose.

 

[rowdy]

Agreed

no such thing as a trap

Agreed HD, it's some people's perceptions is what I was referring too.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

You can see some trap games in the NFL and NBA, but I don't buy it for college. These kids play hard every night and in the end the better team usually wins no matter the place they play at.

 

[krk1030]

I dont buy into trap bullshit. Im sure games look like traps to the average bettor thinking lines are too good to be true, but if you really look into the game you will see the line makes sense.

 

[Swift456]

I think Vegas and Certain Cappers take certain Intangible things way too much into account. Things like Their Looking ahead, they are over-confident, they always lose at that court, alot of psychology stuff.

I mean it factors in sometimes, but if you have a case where a team is better than the other team and the spread is low how could you possibly bet on the worse team just because maybe they are home or what not.

I mean I some some experts picking Missouri State yesterday, Why? Don;t they realize Northern Iowa is the hottest team in the conference right now? Why would you possible pick Missouri State and then sell that pick? If the Uconn/Notre Dame game, I mean Notre Dame is good but Uconn is simply the better team, how do you take Notre Dame in that game?

I mean sometimes the better team doesn't play well and the home court will effect them as well but I just can't lift myself to take a inferior team even if they are at home. I mean if it's close if they are slightly worse and at home I will, kinda Like Notre Dame 2night but I think Marquette and ND are about Even. Just boggles me sometimes, Expert Cappers will just take the other way because the public is on one side, Sometimes the public is not dumb, they see it, they see that the better team is going to win, yea sometimes the line is too high and the public will take it anyway, I think that is when the public get's in trouble. But if it's a small spread I am riding with the better team.

I just think that these guys take certain factors into account way too much sometimes rather than looking at it simply, how does this team matchup player for player, who's deeper, who has more experience?, how have they done against common opponents, on the road? at home? Etc etc, that's how I pick rather than it's a trap game or they are on the road , or the public is all over them, I mean I factor that in sometimes but sometimes you just gotta look at it and take the team who you think is better and if you can judge that you should do Ok.

 

[Snookslayer]

What do you mean Swift?

 

[Swift456]

What do you mean Swift?

Basically go and ride the better team, instead of certain trends or trap game or public is on them etc, etc.........Go with who u feel is clearly the better team and wether or not they can get it done on the road or what not, instead of all this intagible stuff, Letdown game , looking ahead.....forget that if a team is clearly better then take them, That's my opinion

 

[otschamp]

There are too many factors to oversimplify

Swift I agree with you, but these are college kids, not pros. There are many factors that affect young people and the college game itself. There are factors that you might consider intangible but have viable statistical influence on the outcome. You mentioned Notre Dame, that Uconn is better etc... Well some would argue that last year many teams were better than Notre Dame in their conference, how many times did those teams win in South Bend? How about the year before?

There is easily statistical viability in seeing how the same "more talented" team performs on the road versus at home. These kids are highly affected by road games and there is no question about that. Then there are the refs, they are not easily all on the same level of competence and they have trends themselves in foul calling and other factors that affect point spreads. Then you have home court, if you have ever been to a Duke home game you would realize there are some places to play that no matter how much better a team is than the other it is disorienting. They are just college students, some teams have a lot of freshman and they are not used to playing in such places. Hitting threes, free throws, not turning the ball over get affected by such things. If every team always played up to their potential, and every single coach always made the right decision, and every ref called every single game identical then your argument would be right. In college hoops more than any other sport these things make a huge difference.

Just my humble opinion, I have been known to be wrong on occasion.

:think2:

 

[kungfu4life]

For anyone that's played highschool or college sports, remember all the every day factors that affected our mindset. I think it comes down to the player(s) and team that can handle PRESSURE!!!!!!!! keeping the mind focused on the simplist task... eyes on the front of the rim when shooting....nothing more nothing less. After that, regardless of the outcome of the shot, remember your next move. You can't control what others do.

 

[Swift456]

Swift I agree with you, but these are college kids, not pros. There are many factors that affect young people and the college game itself. There are factors that you might consider intangible but have viable statistical influence on the outcome. You mentioned Notre Dame, that Uconn is better etc... Well some would argue that last year many teams were better than Notre Dame in their conference, how many times did those teams win in South Bend? How about the year before?

There is easily statistical viability in seeing how the same "more talented" team performs on the road versus at home. These kids are highly affected by road games and there is no question about that. Then there are the refs, they are not easily all on the same level of competence and they have trends themselves in foul calling and other factors that affect point spreads. Then you have home court, if you have ever been to a Duke home game you would realize there are some places to play that no matter how much better a team is than the other it is disorienting. They are just college students, some teams have a lot of freshman and they are not used to playing in such places. Hitting threes, free throws, not turning the ball over get affected by such things. If every team always played up to their potential, and every single coach always made the right decision, and every ref called every single game identical then your argument would be right. In college hoops more than any other sport these things make a huge difference.

Just my humble opinion, I have been known to be wrong on occasion.

:think2:

No, I agree home court is a big advantage, I always weigh that im talking about other things, Like Trap games and going against the Public.........

I took Uconn because they were the better team and they had some matchup problems for ND. I didn't just take ND because they were home like most people did, I can't blame them for doing that because they did win 48 in row, but if I feel a team is better I will either take them or just leave it alone if they are on the road.

If two teams matchup closely like Marquette and ND do , I will take the home team........


Just feel like certain cappers go with these certain ideals too much.........