There has been an unusual feel of holiday cheer with NFL bettors at Las Vegas sports books the past seven weeks as they've been more right than wrong in six of those weeks.
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</center>Wise guys aren't faring well at the same time, but the average Joe Public bettor is flush with cash and it continued in Week 13 as favorites went 9-4 against the spread.
Let's take a a look at the Good, the Bad and the Ugly in a breakdown of how the books found a way to lose this week, despite the Browns not playing.
A slew of public bettors cashed four-team parlays at 10/1 Sunday, winning with the Packers, Broncos, Raiders and the Over in Oakland. Former Vegas bookmaker Micah Roberts has the details in his NFL Betting Recap.
THE GOOD: KANSAS CITY (+5) at ATLANTA
"The best game for us was Kansas City," MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood said of the Chiefs' 29-28 win at Atlanta. "That was a game that ran early in the week with large bets on the Falcons. We went from -3.5 all the way to -6. We moved down to -4.5 on game day, but (reluctantly) gave back some on KC late."
The Falcons did what they do best and went Over (50.5) the total for the sixth time at home and 10th time in 12 games overall, but they failed to cover for the fourth time in their last six.
Sharp and public money were on the Falcons and it led the way to the books building a nice cushion after the eight early games.
THE BAD: OAKLAND (-3) vs. BUFFALO
The most one-sided game at William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada was the Raiders with 87 percent of the tickets written. Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay said they went 3-1 in the late afternoon games but that Oakland's 38-24 win over Buffalo was his biggest loss of the day, negating the other three late afternoon wins.
While Denver's (-3.5) 20-10 win at Jacksonville and Green Bay's (-6.5) 21-13 win over Houston during a snowstorm at Lambeau Field didn't hurt the books too much early on, the ripple effect was that the parlay risk carried over to the Raiders.
Many bettors also had those three sides tied to the Over (48.5) in Oakland. That's a four-team parlay at 10-to-1 odds the public was cashing frequently.
"We lost money on parlays for the third straight Sunday," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "Hard to imagine."
Public greed for parlay payouts is usually the books' foundation of success.
The Raiders now have 10 wins for the first time since 2002 when they last made the playoffs, and high-scoring comeback efforts like Sunday will only endear them more with the public for the ensuing weeks. Down 24-9 into the third quarter, Oakland closed with 29 unanswered points.
THE UGLY: SEATTLE (-8.5) vs. CAROLINA
After grinding out 12 games on the day to show just a small profit, there was one game left to decide whether or not the books would end their Sunday slides.
"We are positive for the day overall, but need Carolina to keep it that way," Simbal said prior to kickoff.
Every book in town was in the same position.
"Seattle and Over (44.5) will take away all the win on the day," Kornegay said. "Our best decision is the Panthers to win and the Under."
Things got off to a rough start for Carolina and the books when Panthers backup QB Derek Anderson started because Cam Newton had failed to wear a neck-tie on the team flight. Anderson's interception helped Seattle get out to an early 3-0 lead.
Things just snowballed from there and the only comfort for the books was knowing there wasn't much reason to watch the agony of another losing Sunday unfold on TV.
However, the decision on the total was still up in the air with less than five minutes to go. Then Seattle kicked a field goal to win 40-7 and go Over.
SOLUTION TO LOSSES?
The book director job is to maintain an even keel about wins and losses when talking finances with casino presidents. This NFL season has been one of the worst in Las Vegas history, and it's magnified even more because 2015 was such a fantastic year.
Those month-over-month ledgers look awful and the casino bosses want answers.
But the tried-and-true methods of booking games is the same this year as it has been in the past. If the books change methods too much, they change the chances of things cycling back to their favor as they always do.
It's simply a bad run. And what's wrong with bettors finally getting on a hot roll in the NFL? You keep them loyal and at least know they'll be back in the books next week to reinvest.
