vegas line vs my ratings - week 6

[w365]

6-3 on the official plays in my first week of annual line studying approach. as i said in one of my previous posts, there is a patern involving my small faves of less than 3 or small dogs of 8 or less, as they tend to do the best and last week these teams went 14-5-1 ats (nfl/ncaa, plays and leans)


Week 6 early games:


FAU @ MTSU -3
Lean: FAU +3
I have MTSU ranked 29 places better and home teams rated 5-30 places better have gone 0-8 ats when not favored by more than 4. The only reason why this is not an official play is because the ratings differential is just barely in this group of teams and with the current public support for MTSU the line could go up and the play might not be fitting the system by the game time. Anyways, FAU is 6-1 su and 6-1 ats in last 7 road games with the line anywhere in between +4.5 and -11.5. MTSU is 1-5 su and ats in last 6 at home with the line>-4 and <10.


LAT @ BOST -23
Lean: None
The line is where it should be, the public support as expected (the public is big on Boise which is very common for home games in Boise). 50% long term proposition with this line and rating differential. No opinion at all.



MEM -5 @ UAB
Play: UAB +5
Memphis is ranked 37 places better according to my ratings and road teams ranked 16-49 places better, favored by less than 6 are 3-9 ATS year-to-date. Last week alone these teams went 2-4 ATS. (The dogs that covered were Michigan, Utep, Temple and Memphis)

Memphis was in opposite situation last week vs Arkansas State when the lean was to fade ASU and it won. Reverse situation now for this Memphis team that is not good enough to win on the road imo.

UAB was my ATS dark horse comming into the season and so far they are 2-2 ATS which is solid when you play at S.Carolina, at Tennesse and Florida Atlantic on the road and your best conference team Tulsa at home. This team is battle tested and ready for their first upset of the season. Memphis did not play against a really good team so far this season and while I do think that they would win this game on a neutral field, I believe that they are not tested enough to win on the road against anyone right now, including UAB. This series was dominated by UAB for 7 years and the domination ended last season when Memphis defeated a very bad UAB team 25-9 at home. UAB is much better this season and that is a continuation of their improvment that started late last season when they finally started playing a little bit better in the final three games.

Memphis is 6-12 ATS in last 18 when favored by 6 or less on the road. They haven't been favored on the road in a while and it is the unknown territory for this team. UAB has been a big home dog in all but one game since the start of last season and the only one where they haven't been a big home dog was their win and cover vs Tulane as -3 favorites. They are 10-2 ATS as small home dog of less than 10.5.



PIT @ SFL -13.5
Lean: None
The line is where it should be given the ratings differential and the fact that SFL is highly ranked. No opinion here. No data either.



ORST @ UTA -11.5
Lean: Utah -11.5
Big revenge game for Utah and big letdown game for OrSt. A big Utah win will really hurt USC. Last season Utah lost at Oregon State but they were tied while their QB Johnson was in the game. He was injured in the first half and once replaced Utah was not the same team any more. Their star RB M.Asiatta was also injured in that game and only when these two guys returned late last season this team started winning like crazy. After two unimpressive wins over AF and WBST, Utah will try to win big here against a team that was in the mixt of all conversations last week. The thing is, Oregon State is not a good team and Utah should win this one easily. Home teams ranked better but by not more than 20 places are perfect 8-0 ats this season if favored by 11+. My rankings have Utah ranked 19 places better, they are favored by 11.5 Last week Oklahoma was in this situation and they killed TCU as -18 favorites. All 8 teams that were in this situation were small to average public seletions but not this one as we have more money on Oregon State right now.



BYU -28.5 @ Utah State
Lean: None.
I don't have a lean on this one just because the line doesn't seem to be inflated at all for a ranked team rated 115 places better than UTST. Other than that, I can tell you that my teams ranked 90+ better on the road are 6-1 ats so far this season. No lean.



CIN -3.5 @ MARS
Lean: Marshall +3.5
Cincinnati is in the same 3-9 ATS group as Memphis this week. I don't want to make Marshall an official play in this one for two major reasons. First, I don't know how good is really that Cincinnati QB Tony Pike. Since he replaced Grutza, he's been very good, but Cincinnati as a team struggled on the road last week. With this being their second consecutive road game, on short rest, he could be in a bad spot. On the other side of the field, we have Marshall that just lost to WVA in a game where they were expected to be more competitive and I don't know how will they react now. Last year they lost at home to New Hampshire after their game vs WVA. Anyways, this remain a ratings system lean on Marshall +3.5, a team that is usally very good as a home dog and a small dog overall.

 

[JohnnyMac]

I believe Cincy's new QB Pike got hurt and is out for a month or so.

 

[GTROCKMAN]

Nice work u do here at the Rx, keep it up. Appreciate all the work u do. Thanks !!!!! :toast:

 

[w365]

Ratings vs line system RECORD UPDATE:

So, first week of my ratings vs line approach 10-5 (6-3 cfb, 4-2 nfl)

All small faves less than 3 and small dogs 8 or less are 15-5-1 ATS

 

[w365]

I believe Cincy's new QB Pike got hurt and is out for a month or so.

Thanks for the info man. Any official releases on that situation?

 

[w365]

Nice work u do here at the Rx, keep it up. Appreciate all the work u do. Thanks !!!!! :toast:

Glad I could help man. BOL

 

[fooshlash]

Love your write ups


Thank you!!!:drink:

 

[w365]

Love your write ups


Thank you!!!:drink:

my pleasure. gl

 

[SpreadBeaterToo]

I wouldnt get so excited so fast, if I remember correctly isn't the back-up QB for Cincinatti the Notre Dame transfer Demetrius Jones??? If he's named the starter he could leave a mark.

 

[JohnnyMac]

Thanks for the info man. Any official releases on that situation?

He broke his arm and is out 4 weeks. The starter, Grutza, is out for the year, so it is probably D. Jones.

 

[w365]

HAW @ FRST -22.5
Lean: None

The line is where it should be and Fresno is finally getting some rest after long trips early in the season. Hawaii is a bad football team this season and they've always sucked away from home. Having said that, I have no lean with the current line, as it seems to be perfectly set.



EMU @ BGR -21
Lean: None
This line looked very low to me even without looking at the ratings, and once I saw that I have BGR rated 120 places better, my first impression was confirmed. However, I have no data to support the theory that this line is fishy. While all favorites at home ranked that much better are usually laying much more than 21, I really can't call this one a lean since I don't have any information on how they'd do with a suspiciously low line.



WYO @ NMX -11
Lean: None
This line seems to be a little too low as well, even with all NMX injuries. But as I said last week, I believe that Wyoming is very bad and I will stay away from them no mather what. Maybe the linemakers are expecting a letdown from New Mexico after their win over the rivals from NMST, but I don't know if that expectation is justified. However, double digit home favorites ranked 25-41 places better are 0-9 ATS this season. No lean.



SMU @ CFL -14.5
Lean: None
Central Florida is right between two interesting groups this week. The one that is 8-0 ATS so far this season (Utah vs OrSt) and the other one that is 0-9 ATS so far (NMX vs WYO). That makes this pick a definate no play.



IOW @ MCST -9.5
Play: Iowa +10 *b*
I know that not many people will agree with me here but I'm getting used to it real fast. My ratings show Michigan State ranked 26 places better than Iowa and home teams ranked 22-31 places better, not favored by 14+ are 0-14 ATS ytd. Michigan State is not favored at home by -9/-15.5 as they are usually either small faves/dogs against quality opponents or big dd favorites against lesser teams. And when they are favored by -9/-15.5 at home they are 3-15 ATS in last 18 and 0-8 in last 8.

Iowa is not a very good football team but they are more desperate here and they usually play well as underdogs and bad as favorites. They are 6-16 ATS in last 22 when favored (0-8 ATS last 8 as road favorites) and 6-2 ATS in last 8 as underdogs. They have that mentality that is common to some other teams like NCST, ECU etc.

I like Iowa's defense and this is the very first quality defense that Michigan State has faced this season. Iowa defense is particularly effective against the run and rushing offense is Michigan State's strong point. Iowa lost last two games by 1 and 5 pts but outgained both Pitts and NW. They've outrushed everyone so far and have been outpassed by NW and IOST only. Michigan State is almost perfect in outrushing the opponents so far this season (been ourushed by Cal) but they've been outpassed numerous times (last 4 games).



STA @ UND -7.5
Play: Stanford +7.5

I had UND as a lean last week against Purdue and STA as a lean as well against Washington. Both leans were winners and I hope the trend will continue with these two teams. UND is ranked 15 places better and home favorites of less than 11, ranked 5-30 places better are 1-17 ATS so far this season. Too good of a trend to ignore imo.

UND is commin off of an emotional revenge win vs the intrastate rivals from Purdue and they might be due for a letdown. I believe that this game is more important for Stanford and my only concern is Stanford's RB status right now. A.Kimble proved last week that he is capable to put up some big numbers but I'd love to see T.Gerhart as well. Anyways, I stil like Stanford to win the running matchup no matter who runs the ball for them as UND has not been a good rushing team so far this season, both offensively and defensively.

UND at home, favored by 8 or less is only 4-15 ATS against teams playing .500 ball or better and Stanford has been a good small dog lately (doesn't happen all that often) going 19-8 ATS (3-0 SU last 3) as a road dog of less than 10 pts.

 

[w365]

UTEP @ SMISS -8
Lean: None
The line is where it should be despite the fact that UTEP finally plays as well as they are supposed. I have a feeling that we haven't seen the best of SMISS yet. No opinion.


ARM @ TUL -19.5
Lean:None
Army played much better last week (or was it TX A&M that played bad, hard to say) but I don't think they are in the Tulane league right now. The line is accurate.


NIU @ TEN -15.5
Lean:None
Tennessee is in that 8-0 ATS group of teams this week (big faves at home vs slightly lesser teams) but after a dissappointing loss to Auburn and a big public support they are getting here, they are a definate non play. NIU might be back to the elite of the MAC this season.



KKY @ ALA -16.5
Lean: None
Alabama is just barely in that same 8-0 ATS group, being ranked 20 places better, but I don't have any lean in this one after I probably had Kentucky a little bit underrated so far this season. Will take my time with these two teams before making another selection on or against them.


RUT @ WVA -14.5
Lean:None
I've got WVU ranked 48 places better right now and all home faves with such a rating differential are usually public plays and tend to go 50% against the spread in the long run. Stil worried about my loss with Marshall last week, against this same WVU team. Somehow I got sucked in, in what was a not so public fave.



WKY @ VT -28.5
Lean: None
This is what I was talking about in my BGR vs EMU writeup. Virginia Tech has the same ratings differential here and they are laying over 4 TD's compared to BGR's 3 TD'S. This is where the line usually is when the home team is ranked 100+ placed better. These teams rarely lose the game and win more than they lose against the spread. Having said that, there is no lean in this one as VT seems to be a very public bet this week.



SDSU @ TCU -24
Lean:None
Same story here. The line is -24 for a team ranked 100 places better and would be higher if it wasn't for that big TCU loss to Oklahoma last week.



TEM @ MIA(OH) -7
Lean: Miami of Ohio -7
I had Temple as my lean last week against WMU and that one was a push (or a win for those who waited until the gameday). However, my lean is against Temple this time, as they are ranked only 3 places worst than Miami of Ohio and they are +7 underdogs. Home teams ranked 1-11 places better are 8-4 ATS ytd and 4-1 ATS when favored by a TD or more. Temple was able to keep it close against WMU at home last week, even without Di Michele but I'm not so sure it will be the case on the road this week. Miami of Ohio has been a huge under achiever so far this season and I do expect them to break out of their slump soon. This could be the game.



OHIO @ WMU -6
Lean: None
This line compared to other home faves ranked some 50 places better looks to be too low, as the majority of those teams are favored by double digits. However, the previous small/average home faves with this kind of differential in ratings have been successifull so far this season. And they've all been more public than WMU here. The line is a little bit too low which would suggest Ohio cover but the trend is on WMU side. No lean.




RICE @ TULS -14.5
Lean: None
Tulsa is ranked 22 places better than Rice and that's just outside that 8-0 ATS group that featured Oklahoma last week. But even if they were in that group, I would not be able to go against Rice after what they did last week to North Texas. I know it didn't happen against a good team but it stil surprised me. I faded Rice against NTX and went with them against Vandy and it did not work out well. They are on my stay away list right now. Should be an entertaining high scoring game though.

 

[w365]

IND @ MIN -7.5
Lean: None
Indiana is in a similar situation with WMU this week. The line looks too low according to my ratings but these teams have been able to cover with those seemingly low lines, including Minnesota once vs Florida Atlantic.



NAV @ AF -6
Play: Navy +7 *buy 1*
Will Navy's domination against Army and AF continue ? Hard to say, especially after that big Navy win over WF last week that could put them in a letdown spot this week. But even then, I believe they should be able to at least keep it close. Hence the buy up to +7 if you consider playing this team this week.I have Air Force ranked 16 places better than Navy and that puts them in the same 1-17 ATS group with UND this week. I was asking myself if Navy was able to cover against WF last week after pulling an upset against Rutgers the week before and I got the answer with the outright Navy win. Both teams run the ball almost all the time but Navy seems to be doing it more consistently and more efficiently. Air Force has been outrushed big time by Utah in their last game.

Air Force use the passing game more often than Navy but Navy has the better timing when they use it. They are also doing a solid job defending the pass lately, picking up 5 Int's in last 2 games.

Navy is 9-3 ATS in last 12 when underdog of 3-7.5 points and 11-2 ATS in that same line range when away from home (road or neutral field). Air Force is 13-10 ATS as favorite against all other teams than Navy and 0-4 ATS against Navy in last 27 games as favorites.




DUK @ GT -14.5
Lean:None
Georgia Tech is in the same situation as Central Florida this week, being in between two interesting trend groups and I will simply stay away here.



WAST @ UCLA -17
Lean: None
This is where WMU line should be this week, or at least close to it. UCLA has a typical line and public support for a home team ranked 50-60 places better. These tend to go around 50% ats in the long run.



WAS @ ARI -20
Lean:None
Once again, big home favorite ranked 50-60 places better and in this case the line is a little bit higher than average which is not a surprise by any means with this Arizona offense. Teams in this ratings differential range tend to have a little bit inflated line if they have a powerfull offense but even then they are a 50% proposition.

 

[w365]

ASU @ CAL -9.5
Lean: None
Accurate line, 50% of success ATS going both ways. No lean.



UNLV @ COST -2
Play: UNLV +2
When you are UNLV, one loss will make a big swing in the public perception of your team. If they were able to beat Nevada last week, they would be favored @ Colorado State this week, despite losing 5 straight and 9/10 against the Rams. Speaking of HTH matchups between UNLV and COST, it is kind of strange to see a team favored by only 2 against a team that they are usually favored against by at least 7 when at home. My ratings have UNLV 25 places better and road dogs of 2 to 4.5 points, ranked better but not more than 40 places are 13-1 ATS so far this season.

UNLV hasn't been such a small road dog in a long long time. You have to go back several seasons to spot such a line. Colorado State when playing at home, is either a dog or a favorite of 3.5 and more. They've been a home favorite of a field goal or less only 6 times since 2000 and they are 1-4-1 ats in that situation.

UNLV is not a good rushing team, both offensively and defensively but fortunatelly, Colorado State is not a team that should be able to take advantage of that.

Omar Clayton is playing very well for UNLV this season and his 12-2 TD/INT ratio is a big edge over Colorado State's QB Billy Farris. UNLV has already played two difficult road games at Utah and Arizona State and they are battle tested when it comes to road contests.

Colorado State has two close home wins so far this season, against Houston (led 21:3 and barely edged them by 3) and against Sacramento State (by 3 on the last second FG after trailing in the 4th qtr). That is not impressive by any mean and they should be challenged vs UNLV that will be focused again after the ass kicking loss to their rivals from Nevada.





S.CAR @ MISS -2.5
Lean:None
According to my ratings this line is accurate and the public support is as expected for such a rating differential.



ORE @ USC -16.5
Lean: None
USC is in that 8-0 ATS group that involves big home favorites ranked not much better, but I simply can't go with them as they will probably be a big public play closer to the game time. Many will expect them to bounce back and beat Oregon convincingly, but don't forget, they lost to Oregon last year, and they also barely beat Arizona after their shocking loss to Stanford last season. Oregon is in a must win situation as well. No play.


UCONN @ UNC -7
Lean: None
Completely opposite situation for UCONN this week compared to what they faced last week. Last week they were a small dog against a team that was ranked worst then UCONN and now they are a rather big dog against a team that is, once again, ranked worst (slightly) than them. UCONN is ranked 10 places better than UNC but these teams are not doing well if underdogs of 6.5+, going 1-6 ATS this season. That list includes UND against Michigan State, UCLA against BYU, Virginia against UCONN and so on. Having said that, I will not go against UCONN no matter what, because I really admire their 'warrior' attitude and the ability to win even when they are not supposed to win. UNC could experience a letdown as well with their backup QB after a road dog win @ Miami.

 

[w365]

I'm going to add these quickly as I'm already sure that I won't have either a lean or a play on them, no matter what happens with the line or with the public support.


OHST -2.5 @ WIS; Lean:None
AUB -4.5 @ VANDY; Lean:None
Putting these two together because in both cases the home team is very slightly better ranked than the road team and both are home dogs - something that happened only once this season, early on, when I had Army slightly better ranked than Temple, in a game where Temple was a 7 pts favorite and they won and covered easily. That was several weeks ago, with preseason rankings that are not always very accurate. Since then no home team has been a dog vs a team that is supposedly not as good. No data here and I just don't want to be guessing here.




TXAM @ OKST -25
Lean:None
The line is very accurate for a team ranked almost 100 places better and there is no value betting on or against any of these two teams. I really had TXAM ranked too high early on and OKST too low. Both teams proved me wrong and if I had to make the line for this game right now it would be in the -24 to -27 range.



OKL -27 @ BAY
Lean:None
Very high line for a team ranked 70 places better on the road. It could be that I have Baylor ranked a little bit too high. If I had them ranked 10-15 places worst, the line would be perfect. Anyways, no value here.



MIZZ -11 @ NEB
Lean: None
My ratings for Nebraska are probably erroneous right now and that's why I have Mizzou ranked just 10 places better when at Nebraska. Anyhow, road teams with such a small edge in ratings are almost never favored by this many and I will stay away from this one. No data.



FLA - 24.5 @ ARK
Lean: None
I looked at all respected ratings this week to see if I'm the only one who ranked Florida as badly after their loss to MISS last week and I discovered that I'm not the only one. It is a natural reaction to not only their game against Ole Miss but to all of their games so far this season. They did not play as well as expected and that's why I have them ranked only 70 places better than the worst SEC team, Arkansas. With such a ratings differential this line is extremely high and I don't have the data to support my theory that Florida should win big here.



MAR -14 @ VIR; Lean: None
PSU -12.5 @ PUR; Lean: None
Both teams are ranked better by some 60 places and both propositions are about 50% in the long run when favored by double digits on the road.



10 games left and hopefully I'll finish them tonight.

 

[beerformyhorses]

thanks w365. great reading and thanks for the efforts and insights once again. i profited last week on those plays. went with a bigger wager on neveda. 1 ? tho for this week: leaning toward unlv as a bigger wager. is unlv woth a bigger wager in your opinion based on the info u provided?

 

[w365]

ILLINI @ MICH -3
Lean: Illini +3
Being ranked 19 places better than Illinois, Michigan is in the same group of teams as UND this week, that is 1-17 ATS ytd. They are ranked better but I'm not so sure that they are really better than Illinois. Illinois seems to be a public choice for the moment and that's why I will make this one a lean only. Michigan has been the dominant team in this series and that makes this line even more suspicious. How will they react after that improbable come from behid win against Wisky ? I believe they will have a letdown, which would be a natural result for an inexperienced team like Michigan. Illinois played well in both of their losses this season and their offense should keep them in this game. If Michigan repeats their offensive performance from their first half against Wisconsin, they will be down by a lot more than against Wisconsin. Wisconsin is a conservative team with not as much offense as Illinois.



B.C. -8.5 @ NCST
Lean: None

The line in this game is where it should be, given the ratings, and I will stay away from it for another reason. NCST is not as bad as their record tells us and BC has not been tested at all this season. In their only road game ytd, they were far from impressive against Kent State.



LAF -2.5 @ LAMO
Lean: LAMO +3 *b*

Lousiana Lafayette is in the same group as Memphis this week, the group that is 3-9 ATS ytd. In this series the underdog is 9-1 ATS in last 10 and Monroe has won 5 of last 6. Monroe is well rested, and Lafayette played three of their last 4 on the road, including a high scoring affaire at Kansas State last week. They were impressive in that game and they were my lean, but they are probably tired after that game and they are due for a letdown. This Lafayette team is rushing a lot, and they are able to outrush almost everyone, but it looks like, every year they face their rivals from Monroe, they end up outrushed in the matchup.



FIU -7 @ UNT
Lean: UNT +7

FIU is ranked 46 places better and that puts them in a group of teams that are 1-7 ATS so far this season. Their line is a little bit too low for a team ranked that much higher especially after their big upset win @ Toledo last week and that humiliating North Texas loss @ Rice. After those results, a team ranked 40-50 places better on the road should be in the -9.5/-13 line range, but they are not, for two reasons. The linemakers know that Toledo was in a classic letdown spot last week after their OT game vs Fresno. Second, UNT can score at home, and play fast pace, and that is crucial playing a bad team that is on the road for the 4th time in its last 5 games.



BALL -8 @ TOL
Play: Toledo +8
Ball State is definately the public's darling now, after covering the spread in all 4 games this season. They have an explosive offense and that's another thing that the betting public loves to see. As for Toledo, they are comming off of one of the most humiliating losses last week, when they were upset by FIU as the -18.5 favorite. This Toledo team is too good at home to let it happen again this week. They might lose, but I don't believe that they will lose without giving a fight. Ball State was favored by more than a TD on the road only once in last few seasons and they failed to cover. Toledo is 7-1 ATS and 6-2 SU in last 8 as home dog.

Ball State is ranked 90 places better than Toledo and no other team this season ranked at least 75 places better on the road has been a single digit favorite. The closest ones went 2-6 ATS. That shows us how much respect the Toledo home field gets, even after a humiliating loss last week.



TXT -7.5 @ KAST
Lean:None
The line seems to be very accurate. No lean either way.


KAN -13 @ IOST
Lean:None
Once again a very accurate line for Kansas.


AKR -4@ KENT
Play: KENT +4
Probably the most suspicious line this week. With all the public love that Akron is getting here it would not surprise me one bit to see this line go up by game time. Off all road favorites of less than a TD, Akron has (by far) the best rating differential this season. No other small road fave this season has been even close to Akron's differential of 70 places and the closest ones went 1-8 ATS with New Mexico being the only winner, last week against NMST in a game where they trailed 14-0 early but came back to win it in the fourth quarter.

The strength of schedule has been somewhat even, the stats are somewhat even as well. Kent has a solid edge in the running game and they also have a history of playing Akron very hard. The dog has won ATS in 4 of last 5 in this series.

Akron is 1-7 SU/ATS in last 8 as road fave of less than 5 and lost last three outright as a small favorite of less than 5 regardless the venue (twice away and once at home). Kent is rarely a small home dog but they are 5-1 su and ats in last 6 as home dogs of less than 5.



NEV -24.5 @ IDA
Lean: None
Accurate line for the road team with a 115 ratings advantage.


TEX -14 @ COL
Lean: None
No significant data here.



FSU +2.5 @ MIA
Lean: FSU +3 *b*
FSU is ranked 22 places better and they are in the same group as UNLV this week. That group of teams is 13-1 ATS so far this season.

However, Miami is not really a public choice per excellence here and I will only go with FSU as a lean here in a series where the favorite doesn't cover the spread all that often.

Last week Miami got upset by UNC and their backup QB and Florida St. finally showed something many fans have been waiting for. This was their first big win, even though it came against a not so highely touted B12 team.FSU can run and they can also stop the run. That is crucial in this matchup where neither team seems to be able to win when outgained on the ground.

 

[fadethepublic1]

just like last week bro. We have the same exact plays again. last week i had...

<b>MINERS
WOLVERINES
VOLUNTEERS</b> ... and they all won

this week's the same...

<b>MARSHALL
STANFORD
UNLV
NAVY</b>

I also have (I'm pretty sure you'll have them too)...

<b>TOLEDO
KANSAS STATE
UTAH STATE (WTF?)</b>

GL and as always... Aloha.

 

[w365]

First lean this week is a winner.

Plays and leans with the line anywhere in between -2.5 and +8 now 16-5-1 ATS.

 

[w365]

btw, middle tennesse state was in the same group as air force, notre dame and michigan this week and that group is now 1-18 ytd...