started this in college football this week with lots of success. this is something i do every year but it takes some time to gather info, so usually i start in weeks 4 or 5. only a few nfl games this week have enough data to be ranked 'leans' or 'plays"
tennessee is ranked 14 places better than minnesota and is laying only 3. there have been 3 teams in similar situation so far this season, all three as big public plays. kc lost outright to oakland, chicago lost to tb and denver (somewhat similar) winning but not covering against new orleans. play: minnesota +3
buffalo is not laying as big of a number as a team ranked 28 places better should do, even on the road. they are getting close to 60% of bets and they are also getting tons of bets on the over and that is not a good sign for them. the same thing happened last week vs oakland and they barely survived. play: stl +9
philladelphia is laying just 3 and they are ranked 10 places better. that, as well as a huge public support puts them in a group of teams that includes indianapolis at minnesota (barely won), jaxonville at tennesse (lost as -3), carolina at minny (lost and did not cover), detroit at atlanta (lost as -3). play: chicago +3
the public has a hard time picking dogs and every time the majority of bets were on the road dog that i had as the better team in my rankings the dog lost and failed to cover. that is the case with gb this week. play: tb moneyline
new orleans is in the same group as jaxonville vs buffalo (lost su), dallas vs philly (lost ats), indiana vs chicago (lost su) but we lost too much value with this one. lean: sf +4.5
tennessee is ranked 14 places better than minnesota and is laying only 3. there have been 3 teams in similar situation so far this season, all three as big public plays. kc lost outright to oakland, chicago lost to tb and denver (somewhat similar) winning but not covering against new orleans. play: minnesota +3
buffalo is not laying as big of a number as a team ranked 28 places better should do, even on the road. they are getting close to 60% of bets and they are also getting tons of bets on the over and that is not a good sign for them. the same thing happened last week vs oakland and they barely survived. play: stl +9
philladelphia is laying just 3 and they are ranked 10 places better. that, as well as a huge public support puts them in a group of teams that includes indianapolis at minnesota (barely won), jaxonville at tennesse (lost as -3), carolina at minny (lost and did not cover), detroit at atlanta (lost as -3). play: chicago +3
the public has a hard time picking dogs and every time the majority of bets were on the road dog that i had as the better team in my rankings the dog lost and failed to cover. that is the case with gb this week. play: tb moneyline
new orleans is in the same group as jaxonville vs buffalo (lost su), dallas vs philly (lost ats), indiana vs chicago (lost su) but we lost too much value with this one. lean: sf +4.5
