[h=1]Vegas handicappers rank every NFL team: Green Bay No. 1[/h]
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The Green Bay Packers are back to the No. 1 spot in the NFL Vegas Rankings -- but just barely.
Three of the top four teams in last week's ratings (Arizona, Pittsburgh and Carolina) lost by double digits in Week 3, so that opened the door for the Packers, though they barely covered in their 34-27 win over the Lions after closing as 6.5-point favorites. However, Green Bay was ahead 31-3 at one point, so our panel still upgraded the Pack by half a point -- and that was enough to put them on top.
New England's 27-0 blanking of Houston on Thursday night moved them up into a tie for second with Arizona, against whom the Patriots played a coin-flip game in the season opener. Of course it's assumed our panel will increase the Patriots by enough to put them in the top spot next week when Tom Brady returns from his suspension. But that's in the future; the biggest debate currently in the ranking business is where to put the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles, especially after their 34-3 rout of the highly rated Pittsburgh Steelers. ESPN's FPI upgraded the Eagles by 3.7 points, but Erin Rynning and I were more conservative and increased their power rating by only 2 points, so the average increase is 2.5 as the Eagles move into our top 10.
Here's a look at the other teams making the biggest moves up and down the rankings, as well as some Week 4 value plays (8-2 against the spread so far this season) using this week's power ratings:
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Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the power ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread.
Movin' on up
As mentioned above, the Eagles and Patriots were the biggest increases, by 2.5 point apiece. The Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns and Atlanta Falcons also improved by 1.5 points. The Bills routed the Cardinals 33-18 as 5-point home underdogs, the Browns lost 30-24 in overtime at Miami (but covered as 10-point underdogs) and the Falcons beat the Saints 45-32 on Monday night as 3-point road 'dogs. Other teams improving by a full point were the Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs and Vikings.
Dropping down
The Cardinals and Steelers, not surprisingly the teams that suffered the biggest losses from the teams that are moving up, were both downgraded by 2 points. The other teams being docked by 1 point include the Panthers, Jets, Texans, Saints, Bears and 49ers.
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[h=2]Week 4 value plays[/h]Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased fully if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week of the season, we compare the lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list value plays. However, we also suggest using our ratings to create your own numbers if you think we have teams ranked in the wrong places to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays are 8-2 ATS so far this season after going 3-1 ATS in Week 3 with the Patriots +2.5, Vikings +7 and Falcons +3, while the lone loss was the Cardinals -4.5.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 4 games over the weekend here at ESPN Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins
Vegas consensus line: Washington -9.5
Vegas Ranks: Washington -4 (17.5-13.5)
The Browns are the lowest-rated team by our panel, but we have the Redskins only 4 points better than them on a neutral field. Even with Washington's home-field advantage, we don't see how this line should be higher than the key number of 7 points. With the line at 9.5 (and even 10 at some books) early in the week, we see the Browns covering as they did Sunday against the Dolphins.
The play: Browns +9.5.
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas consensus line: Denver -3
Vegas Ranks: Denver -7 (25-18)
Our raw numbers have the defending champion Broncos rated 7 points better than the Buccaneers on a neutral field. Even with Tampa's home-field advantage (which didn't help them Sunday against the Rams), we don't see how this line isn't more than a field goal and closer to Denver -5 or even -6.
The play: Broncos -3.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
Vegas consensus line: Minnesota -4
Vegas Ranks: Minnesota -4.5 (25-20.5)
We have the Vikings rated 4.5 points better than the Giants on a neutral field, and that's already higher than the current point spread, but adding Minnesota's home-field advantage puts this line much closer to a full touchdown.
The play: Vikings -4.
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The Green Bay Packers are back to the No. 1 spot in the NFL Vegas Rankings -- but just barely.
Three of the top four teams in last week's ratings (Arizona, Pittsburgh and Carolina) lost by double digits in Week 3, so that opened the door for the Packers, though they barely covered in their 34-27 win over the Lions after closing as 6.5-point favorites. However, Green Bay was ahead 31-3 at one point, so our panel still upgraded the Pack by half a point -- and that was enough to put them on top.
New England's 27-0 blanking of Houston on Thursday night moved them up into a tie for second with Arizona, against whom the Patriots played a coin-flip game in the season opener. Of course it's assumed our panel will increase the Patriots by enough to put them in the top spot next week when Tom Brady returns from his suspension. But that's in the future; the biggest debate currently in the ranking business is where to put the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles, especially after their 34-3 rout of the highly rated Pittsburgh Steelers. ESPN's FPI upgraded the Eagles by 3.7 points, but Erin Rynning and I were more conservative and increased their power rating by only 2 points, so the average increase is 2.5 as the Eagles move into our top 10.
Here's a look at the other teams making the biggest moves up and down the rankings, as well as some Week 4 value plays (8-2 against the spread so far this season) using this week's power ratings:
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Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the power ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread.
Movin' on up
As mentioned above, the Eagles and Patriots were the biggest increases, by 2.5 point apiece. The Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns and Atlanta Falcons also improved by 1.5 points. The Bills routed the Cardinals 33-18 as 5-point home underdogs, the Browns lost 30-24 in overtime at Miami (but covered as 10-point underdogs) and the Falcons beat the Saints 45-32 on Monday night as 3-point road 'dogs. Other teams improving by a full point were the Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs and Vikings.
Dropping down
The Cardinals and Steelers, not surprisingly the teams that suffered the biggest losses from the teams that are moving up, were both downgraded by 2 points. The other teams being docked by 1 point include the Panthers, Jets, Texans, Saints, Bears and 49ers.
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| RANK | TEAM | SEPT. 20 | SEPT. 27 | SB ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay | 25.5 | 26 | 7-1 |
| T-2 | New England | 23 | 25.5 | 7-2 |
| T-2 | Arizona | 27.5 | 25.5 | 10-1 |
| T-4 | Seattle | 24 | 25 | 8-1 |
| T-4 | Minnesota | 24 | 25 | 10-1 |
| T-4 | Pittsburgh | 27 | 25 | 10-1 |
| T-4 | Denver | 24 | 25 | 12-1 |
| 8 | Carolina | 25 | 24 | 14-1 |
| 9 | Kansas City | 22 | 23 | 25-1 |
| 10 | Philadelphia | 20 | 22.5 | 20-1 |
| 11 | Cincinnati | 22.5 | 22 | 40-1 |
| T-12 | Houston | 22.5 | 21.5 | 25-1 |
| T-12 | Baltimore | 21 | 21.5 | 30-1 |
| T-12 | New York (A) | 22.5 | 21.5 | 60-1 |
| T-12 | Atlanta | 20 | 21.5 | 80-1 |
| T-16 | Oakland | 20 | 20.5 | 20-1 |
| T-16 | New York (N) | 20.5 | 20.5 | 30-1 |
| T-16 | Indianapolis | 20.5 | 20.5 | 40-1 |
| T-19 | San Diego | 20 | 20 | 50-1 |
| T-19 | Buffalo | 18.5 | 20 | 100-1 |
| 21 | Dallas | 19 | 19.5 | 20-1 |
| 22 | Miami | 19 | 18.5 | 80-1 |
| T-23 | Tampa Bay | 18.5 | 18 | 100-1 |
| T-23 | Detroit | 18 | 18 | 100-1 |
| T-25 | Washington | 17 | 17.5 | 80-1 |
| T-25 | Los Angeles | 17.5 | 17.5 | 100-1 |
| 27 | New Orleans | 18 | 17 | 100-1 |
| 28 | Jacksonville | 17.5 | 17.5 | 200-1 |
| 29 | Tennessee | 17 | 16.5 | 100-1 |
| 30 | San Francisco | 17 | 16 | 1000-1 |
| 31 | Chicago | 16 | 15 | 300-1 |
| 32 | Cleveland | 12 | 13.5 | 2000-1 |
| Odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday, Sept. 27 |
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[h=2]Week 4 value plays[/h]Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased fully if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week of the season, we compare the lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list value plays. However, we also suggest using our ratings to create your own numbers if you think we have teams ranked in the wrong places to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays are 8-2 ATS so far this season after going 3-1 ATS in Week 3 with the Patriots +2.5, Vikings +7 and Falcons +3, while the lone loss was the Cardinals -4.5.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 4 games over the weekend here at ESPN Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
Vegas consensus line: Washington -9.5
Vegas Ranks: Washington -4 (17.5-13.5)
The Browns are the lowest-rated team by our panel, but we have the Redskins only 4 points better than them on a neutral field. Even with Washington's home-field advantage, we don't see how this line should be higher than the key number of 7 points. With the line at 9.5 (and even 10 at some books) early in the week, we see the Browns covering as they did Sunday against the Dolphins.
The play: Browns +9.5.
Vegas consensus line: Denver -3
Vegas Ranks: Denver -7 (25-18)
Our raw numbers have the defending champion Broncos rated 7 points better than the Buccaneers on a neutral field. Even with Tampa's home-field advantage (which didn't help them Sunday against the Rams), we don't see how this line isn't more than a field goal and closer to Denver -5 or even -6.
The play: Broncos -3.
Vegas consensus line: Minnesota -4
Vegas Ranks: Minnesota -4.5 (25-20.5)
We have the Vikings rated 4.5 points better than the Giants on a neutral field, and that's already higher than the current point spread, but adding Minnesota's home-field advantage puts this line much closer to a full touchdown.
The play: Vikings -4.
