:howdy:Hello Dave...
You make some very good points and I agree with your overall assessment that if a wager is placed on this contest then Pittsburgh is indeed the side to wager on...
...however, I couldn't help but notice that you left out the fact that Baltimore is playing their 18th straight game this week and will be on the road for a third straight week as well, the fatigue factor started to show last week when Chris Johnson gashed the Raven defense repeatedly and as a team the Titans rushed for 116 yards...
You mentioned that you were leaning towards the UNDER in this contest, personally I think this contest flies way OVER the posted total of 34, the reason for this thought process centers around the fact that Baltimore's defense is a tired unit, and tired units give up points...
...there is no tomorrow for either team in this contest, meaning that each team will have to match the other on the scoreboard, Pittsburgh figures to score early and often as a means of forcing the Ravens to use young Flacco in the passing game more than Baltimore would like to...
....Flacco is a very good young QB and he will make some plays and score some points, however, I'm not sure he's quite ready for such a grand stage as the AFC Championship game.
Flacco is being compared to Ben Roelisberger and there are some similarities, the most striking of course is that each QB led their team to an AFC Championship game in their rookie season...
...as good as Roelisberger played in his rookie season he looked THAT bad in the AFC Championship game against New England in a 41-27 loss that saw Roelisberger toss three interceptions and as a team Pittsburgh turned the ball over five times.
Odds makers aren't in the business of giving money away, with that being said they all but told us (as handicappers) which side in this contest they felt held most of the cards when they opened the line up with Pittsburgh installed as a prohibitive 5 point favorite.
You made mention of the fact that this is the 3rd time these two teams will have faced each other this season and stated that it would be awfully hard for one team to defeat another team three times in the same season, I agree with that to a point...
...but on the flip side of things, doesn't it make sense that each time a team plays another team its a whole new game and with that in mind and all things being equal with regard to injuries and such, if one team couldn't defeat another team in the first two encounters why would they suddenly have a better chance in the 3rd go around?
In historical terms there have been 54 instances in which two teams have met three times in a single season, in 36 of the 54 meetings the two teams split the regular season meetings, however, in 18 of the 54 meetings one team won BOTH regular season meeting and entered the third affair with a mark of 2-0...
...the team that won BOTH meetings won the third match up 11 of the 18 times it has happened for a winning rate of 61.11%.
However, this same situation came up just last year when the Cowpokes of Dallas defeated the G-Men New York twice during the regular season by finals of 45-35 and 31-20 but lost to New York 21-17 in the playoffs enroute to the Giants winning the Super Bowl.
Strangely enough, in recent history Pittsburgh is 2-0 in third same season meetings when they had won the first two against the same team and then faced them in the playoffs and in both cases the team the Steelers beat a 3rd time in the same season was the Cleveland Browns who in turn spun off the Raven franchaise.
Take care and be well my friend
Dirtydog
:wink:
