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THURSDAY
Cincinnati (+11.0) @ Pittsburgh (-11.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (Win)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (Win)
SUNDAY
Tampa Bay (-7.5) @ Detroit (+7.5)
At 0 - 10, Detroit has been easy to figure out with no spread; but with the spread they are trouble. They've been killing me week in and week out. At only +7.5 against one of the NFC's best though, I have to take my chances on the Bucs here. Against a terrible defense they SHOULD be able to score without difficulty, and the defense should force a few turnovers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
Philadelphia (+1.0) @ Baltimore (-1.0)
Easily one of the toughest games on the card, I'm going to take Baltimore. Hard to endorse them too heavily after last week's blowout loss, but now they are back at home against a one-dimensional pass happy Philly offense. If they can force a few turnovers and keep it simple, they should be able to pick up the win at home here. It won't be easy against an explosive Philly offense, but I think the defense is up to the task.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
Houston (+3.0) @ Cleveland (-3.0)
Another difficult game to predict, but I'm going to go with the Texans. Their passing game, even with Rosenfels as the starter, has been outstanding all year and should be able to put up plenty of points on a Cleveland secondary that has been getting torched over the last few weeks. Cleveland losing Brady Quinn was a big blow to the morale; Derek Anderson is just as capable, but getting an exciting win behind young Quinn only to find out that he is injured and will not play hurts; and I don't think they overcome it this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston
San Francisco (+10.0) @ Dallas (-10.0)
After a tough win against rival Washington, Dallas now has a much easier team this week in San Francisco. SF has been playing tougher under Coach Singletary, but I believe Dallas will build on the momentum of last week and get a convincing win here against the 49ers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
New York Jets (+5.5) @ Tennessee (-5.5)
You know that Tennessee train I've been riding, the one that I want to ride until they give me good reason not to? Yeah, I'm going to keep riding it. Tack on the fact that the Jets are due for an off game on offense after scoring 47 and 34 over the last two weeks (and what better team to have an off game against then one of the league's best on D?) and that you should always take the defensive powerhouse over the high-octane offense, and there isn't much not to love about the Titans here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
Minnesota (+2.0) @ Jacksonville (-2.0)
Very ugly game to try and predict here between two major disappointments this season. I'll take Jacksonville; their biggest problem this year has been defending against the pass, which shouldn't be too big of a problem against Minnesota. Jacksonville should be able to get the passing game going here and do enough to get the win at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
Buffalo (-3.0) @ Kansas City (+3.0)
Buffalo definitely should win this game, they are the superior team, even if they are in a major slump. I'm going to take the Chiefs though. Buffalo, who had high hopes of playoffs this year especially after a hot start, is sitting at 5 - 5 in the midst of a 4 game losing streak. They play a terrible Chiefs team now in an absolute MUST WIN GAME. Kansas City meanwhile at 1 - 9 already knows their fate. They are playing for nothing but pride at this point. All the pressure is on Buffalo, meaning they will be a lot more tense than Kansas City who can play loose and fun out there. Last week I was wrong, but once again, I'll take the Chiefs in an outright upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
New England (+1.0) @ Miami (-1.0)
Tough to separate these teams, and on paper Miami actually makes a lot of sense in this game. But here I see two relatively evenly matched teams, both at 6 - 4, both needing this win to stay alive in the AFC East. While I understand this isn't Tom Brady's team anymore, this is exactly the type of game New England has been winning every single time for the better part of a decade now. Miami has come a long way in short time, but is the team coming off of 2 point victories over Seattle and Oakland really ready to beat the Patriots AGAIN? I don't think New England is going to let it happen this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New England
Chicago (-7.5) @ St. Louis (+7.5)
After getting totally embarrassed in a 37 - 3 blowout loss against Green Bay, what better team to take out your aggression on then the St. Louis Rams? I don't see the Bears letting this game get away from them after what happened last week. With Steven Jackson still out, this Rams team will have an awfully hard time moving the football.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago
Oakland (+9.5) @ Denver (-9.5)
Say you have a hated rival. Say that hated rival is scheduled to play against you on Monday Night Football to open the season, in your stadium. They come in and embarrass the hell out of you on national television by a score of 41 - 14. Now call me crazy, but I'm pretty sure you are circling your calendar with a big red marker for the next time you face off against these guys. With nothing left to play for this season, this is the most meaningful game left on the schedule for the Raiders. They have no reason not to lay it all out on the field. Throw the stats out on this one; this game stays close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
Carolina (+1.0) @ Atlanta (-1.0)
Funny what a difference a couple of points make. If Atlanta was the underdog in this game, they would have met one of my philosophy pick criteria; losing as a home favorite last week being a home dog this week. As such, I would have taken Atlanta without so much as a second glance. But the ever so slight -1.0 makes them a favorite, meaning I can look at this game subjectively; and what I see is an extremely underrated defensive team in Carolina not getting nearly the respect they deserve. And I don't mean to rain on Atlanta's parade, but they've beaten 0 - 10 Detroit, 1 - 9 Kansas City, 2 - 8 Oakland, and 5 - 5 New Orleans, Green Bay, and Chicago. Not taking anything away from them, its great that they are winning the games they should win; but they haven't beaten a team over .500 yet, and I don't think they will this week either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina
Washington (-3.0) @ Seattle (+3.0)
After an impressive start, the Redskins have come crashing back down to earth. At 6 - 4 they are still alive in the NFC, but 5 straight lackluster games make it hard to believe in this team. Much like my write-up of the Bills/Chiefs game, this is a must win game for the Redskins and all the pressure is on them, while Seattle will be able to play loose out there. They are getting healthy and have strong together two straight respectable efforts against Miami and Arizona. At home I think they put together a third straight respectable game, and this one will be good enough for the win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle
New York Giants (-3.0) @ Arizona (+3.0)
First of all, I'm convinced that the Giants can not be defended against. They have insane depth at the RB position as well as a QB who has finally come into his own and provides a very serious deep threat on every single play. They are just too versatile to stop. I was going to give Arizona a closer look of course out of due diligence, but glancing at their schedule I saw that they have played 3 straight division rivalry games; and the last two against Seattle and San Francisco were very close, physical games. Couple how much three straight division games wear on you with how good the Giants are, and 3 points is nowhere close to enough.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants
Indianapolis (+2.5) @ San Diego (-2.5)
Two teams that were supposed to be locks to win their divisions now struggling to save their playoff lives. Crazy, crazy world. Quite frankly, I think Indy matches up very well here. San Diego's passing defense is awful which should bode well for Indy, and Indy has won 3 straight while San Diego has looked awful in 4 straight, losing 3 and beating KC by only one point. This may be a trap line, but even if it is, I think Vegas just might be wrong here if they are trying to trap everyone into taking SD; I think Indy will win this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis
MONDAY
Green Bay (+2.5) @ New Orleans (-2.5)
This game should be a lot of fun. Especially if Reggie Bush comes back, which he is hopeful he will. Either way, I'm still taking Green Bay here. This game has all the makings of a shootout, and I believe that Green Bay has the better secondary which will come up with the big play or two needed to swing the momentum in their favor. Should definitely be a fun one to watch.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
Good luck :toast:
THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 9 - 7 - 0 (.563)
Without the spread: 11 - 4 - 1 (.733)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 1 - 0 (.500)
Season
With the spread: 82 - 75 - 3 (.522)
Without the spread: 102 - 57 - 1 (.642)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 12 - 5 - 0 (.706)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
Last Week
With the spread: 9 - 7 - 0 (.563)
Without the spread: 11 - 4 - 1 (.733)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 1 - 0 (.500)
Season
With the spread: 82 - 75 - 3 (.522)
Without the spread: 102 - 57 - 1 (.642)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 12 - 5 - 0 (.706)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
THURSDAY
Cincinnati (+11.0) @ Pittsburgh (-11.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (Win)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (Win)
SUNDAY
Tampa Bay (-7.5) @ Detroit (+7.5)
At 0 - 10, Detroit has been easy to figure out with no spread; but with the spread they are trouble. They've been killing me week in and week out. At only +7.5 against one of the NFC's best though, I have to take my chances on the Bucs here. Against a terrible defense they SHOULD be able to score without difficulty, and the defense should force a few turnovers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
Philadelphia (+1.0) @ Baltimore (-1.0)
Easily one of the toughest games on the card, I'm going to take Baltimore. Hard to endorse them too heavily after last week's blowout loss, but now they are back at home against a one-dimensional pass happy Philly offense. If they can force a few turnovers and keep it simple, they should be able to pick up the win at home here. It won't be easy against an explosive Philly offense, but I think the defense is up to the task.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
Houston (+3.0) @ Cleveland (-3.0)
Another difficult game to predict, but I'm going to go with the Texans. Their passing game, even with Rosenfels as the starter, has been outstanding all year and should be able to put up plenty of points on a Cleveland secondary that has been getting torched over the last few weeks. Cleveland losing Brady Quinn was a big blow to the morale; Derek Anderson is just as capable, but getting an exciting win behind young Quinn only to find out that he is injured and will not play hurts; and I don't think they overcome it this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston
San Francisco (+10.0) @ Dallas (-10.0)
After a tough win against rival Washington, Dallas now has a much easier team this week in San Francisco. SF has been playing tougher under Coach Singletary, but I believe Dallas will build on the momentum of last week and get a convincing win here against the 49ers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
New York Jets (+5.5) @ Tennessee (-5.5)
You know that Tennessee train I've been riding, the one that I want to ride until they give me good reason not to? Yeah, I'm going to keep riding it. Tack on the fact that the Jets are due for an off game on offense after scoring 47 and 34 over the last two weeks (and what better team to have an off game against then one of the league's best on D?) and that you should always take the defensive powerhouse over the high-octane offense, and there isn't much not to love about the Titans here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
Minnesota (+2.0) @ Jacksonville (-2.0)
Very ugly game to try and predict here between two major disappointments this season. I'll take Jacksonville; their biggest problem this year has been defending against the pass, which shouldn't be too big of a problem against Minnesota. Jacksonville should be able to get the passing game going here and do enough to get the win at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
Buffalo (-3.0) @ Kansas City (+3.0)
Buffalo definitely should win this game, they are the superior team, even if they are in a major slump. I'm going to take the Chiefs though. Buffalo, who had high hopes of playoffs this year especially after a hot start, is sitting at 5 - 5 in the midst of a 4 game losing streak. They play a terrible Chiefs team now in an absolute MUST WIN GAME. Kansas City meanwhile at 1 - 9 already knows their fate. They are playing for nothing but pride at this point. All the pressure is on Buffalo, meaning they will be a lot more tense than Kansas City who can play loose and fun out there. Last week I was wrong, but once again, I'll take the Chiefs in an outright upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City
New England (+1.0) @ Miami (-1.0)
Tough to separate these teams, and on paper Miami actually makes a lot of sense in this game. But here I see two relatively evenly matched teams, both at 6 - 4, both needing this win to stay alive in the AFC East. While I understand this isn't Tom Brady's team anymore, this is exactly the type of game New England has been winning every single time for the better part of a decade now. Miami has come a long way in short time, but is the team coming off of 2 point victories over Seattle and Oakland really ready to beat the Patriots AGAIN? I don't think New England is going to let it happen this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New England
Chicago (-7.5) @ St. Louis (+7.5)
After getting totally embarrassed in a 37 - 3 blowout loss against Green Bay, what better team to take out your aggression on then the St. Louis Rams? I don't see the Bears letting this game get away from them after what happened last week. With Steven Jackson still out, this Rams team will have an awfully hard time moving the football.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago
Oakland (+9.5) @ Denver (-9.5)
Say you have a hated rival. Say that hated rival is scheduled to play against you on Monday Night Football to open the season, in your stadium. They come in and embarrass the hell out of you on national television by a score of 41 - 14. Now call me crazy, but I'm pretty sure you are circling your calendar with a big red marker for the next time you face off against these guys. With nothing left to play for this season, this is the most meaningful game left on the schedule for the Raiders. They have no reason not to lay it all out on the field. Throw the stats out on this one; this game stays close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
Carolina (+1.0) @ Atlanta (-1.0)
Funny what a difference a couple of points make. If Atlanta was the underdog in this game, they would have met one of my philosophy pick criteria; losing as a home favorite last week being a home dog this week. As such, I would have taken Atlanta without so much as a second glance. But the ever so slight -1.0 makes them a favorite, meaning I can look at this game subjectively; and what I see is an extremely underrated defensive team in Carolina not getting nearly the respect they deserve. And I don't mean to rain on Atlanta's parade, but they've beaten 0 - 10 Detroit, 1 - 9 Kansas City, 2 - 8 Oakland, and 5 - 5 New Orleans, Green Bay, and Chicago. Not taking anything away from them, its great that they are winning the games they should win; but they haven't beaten a team over .500 yet, and I don't think they will this week either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina
Washington (-3.0) @ Seattle (+3.0)
After an impressive start, the Redskins have come crashing back down to earth. At 6 - 4 they are still alive in the NFC, but 5 straight lackluster games make it hard to believe in this team. Much like my write-up of the Bills/Chiefs game, this is a must win game for the Redskins and all the pressure is on them, while Seattle will be able to play loose out there. They are getting healthy and have strong together two straight respectable efforts against Miami and Arizona. At home I think they put together a third straight respectable game, and this one will be good enough for the win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle
New York Giants (-3.0) @ Arizona (+3.0)
First of all, I'm convinced that the Giants can not be defended against. They have insane depth at the RB position as well as a QB who has finally come into his own and provides a very serious deep threat on every single play. They are just too versatile to stop. I was going to give Arizona a closer look of course out of due diligence, but glancing at their schedule I saw that they have played 3 straight division rivalry games; and the last two against Seattle and San Francisco were very close, physical games. Couple how much three straight division games wear on you with how good the Giants are, and 3 points is nowhere close to enough.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants
Indianapolis (+2.5) @ San Diego (-2.5)
Two teams that were supposed to be locks to win their divisions now struggling to save their playoff lives. Crazy, crazy world. Quite frankly, I think Indy matches up very well here. San Diego's passing defense is awful which should bode well for Indy, and Indy has won 3 straight while San Diego has looked awful in 4 straight, losing 3 and beating KC by only one point. This may be a trap line, but even if it is, I think Vegas just might be wrong here if they are trying to trap everyone into taking SD; I think Indy will win this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis
MONDAY
Green Bay (+2.5) @ New Orleans (-2.5)
This game should be a lot of fun. Especially if Reggie Bush comes back, which he is hopeful he will. Either way, I'm still taking Green Bay here. This game has all the makings of a shootout, and I believe that Green Bay has the better secondary which will come up with the big play or two needed to swing the momentum in their favor. Should definitely be a fun one to watch.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
Good luck :toast:
