My take
Boxing is the only sport in can cap with any confidence, its a shame there's not a separate forum for it here. Sportsbook.com puts out odds on more fights than any book i've seen... all the way down to club shows in the midwest. Its a great opportunity to cash in if you know what you're doing.
My money is on Mosely in this fight. While Shane might be the older fighter in terms of months and years, Vargas is the one who went through the wars with Trinidad and De La Hoya that take a tremendous toll on a boxing career. Mosely had his share of big fights, but never took the big and damaging shots that Vargas has over the years.
Vargas is an absolute warrior -- but sometimes to a fault. In a fight between aging stars, I'm going with the fresher fighter. In the two fights I saw Vargas fight in 2005, I just didn't think he had the legs to make it back to the top... he may have spent it all against De La Hoya.
Anyway, thats my humble opinion, here's what Oscar himself said at the press conference:
(From fightnews.com) "[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] By Oscar De La Hoya
The first few rounds Vargas will come out strong and try to bully him. Mosley will stand his ground and fight harder. I think Mosley will stop him in the late rounds. People don't realize how strong Mosley is. I had a harder time pushing Mosley around than Vargas. I do believe that Vargas is ready and in great shape. There are two types of powers. Vargas has a heavy punch, walks you down and feels heavy. Mosley's speed is his power. The later rounds will be the determining factor. Their last performances were down due to the quality of opponent. Both fighters needed this fight and both are ready. Mosley is always in great shape and will walk you down, slowly, as the fight goes on. He can turn it up, and turn it down. Vargas will expend all of his energy at the beginning of the fight and then fade. The loser of this fight will be fighting on Friday Night Fights. You cannot outbox Mosley, that is impossible. He is too fast. Vargas will use his power and try to force his way in. When Mosley has to turn it up he will. I will not be alarmed to see Mosley stand toe-to-toe with Vargas. Mosley has a better chin. I added to the damage that Trinidad did and I think that Mosley will finish him off. Vargas will be in trouble and he is in for a very good fight. Vargas' downfall will be his anger. His aggressive style is too over the top and it will do him in."[/FONT]