Grienke has shown signs of regression in his recent outings. He has been falling behind counts at a higher rating, leading to him becoming a more hittable pitcher. Experience bettors have claiming Grienke's first quarter performance lacked sustainability, and as long as oddsmakers and the market priced him as if the performances did in fact have sustainability, there would be opportunities to bet against him. They have profited of late, as the market continued to price him for perfection.
In my opinion, oddsmakers have once again priced him as if his first quarter performance was relatively sustainable, and with the current line movement (or lackthereof), the market seems to be indifferent to the oddsmakers pricing. Although he is one of the better pithchers in the league, is continues to be priced in the Santana/Peavy range, when if fact he should be priced two tiers below. He also carries an increased systematic risk as he is now backed by a slumping line (have scored more than four runs in only 3 of their last 19 games), a shaky bullpen with their two best arms struggling and coming off an injury, and poor road play.
We are we aware of the inherent risks Sowers posseses. But at this price, they appear factored in. Backed by a lineup and bullpen on an upward cycle, and the current pricing looks off.
Should be interesting to see where this line closes. My guess is the Royals price tag has hit it's intraday high.
In my opinion, oddsmakers have once again priced him as if his first quarter performance was relatively sustainable, and with the current line movement (or lackthereof), the market seems to be indifferent to the oddsmakers pricing. Although he is one of the better pithchers in the league, is continues to be priced in the Santana/Peavy range, when if fact he should be priced two tiers below. He also carries an increased systematic risk as he is now backed by a slumping line (have scored more than four runs in only 3 of their last 19 games), a shaky bullpen with their two best arms struggling and coming off an injury, and poor road play.
We are we aware of the inherent risks Sowers posseses. But at this price, they appear factored in. Backed by a lineup and bullpen on an upward cycle, and the current pricing looks off.
Should be interesting to see where this line closes. My guess is the Royals price tag has hit it's intraday high.
That sample size is way too small to formulate a slanted opinion on. When dealing with such a small sample, there are many more variables that influence and dominate the disparites between day and night performances (i.e quality of opponent, having his stuff, general variance of pitching performance) than just assume is disparity predicated on being "a better day game pitcher"
A more appropriate measure would be to look at his last three years or entire career and see if there exists a material difference between day and night performances. However, even with a material difference appears, when dealing with day/night splits, a handicapper is still vulnerable to running into the fallacy of "cum hoc ergo propter hoc" as when all is said and done a strong case can be made that any material difference between the splits is still predicated on randomness.
