hello guys this is gonna be a very lengthy one. i have felt like this all season but last night just confirmed it for me.
value just isnt there anymore with the short home dogs. last night was a great example. we had 3 games where a better team was barely favored on the road. ohio st iowa, wake md, and cincy usf. in years past these lines would have been 3 or 3.5 most likely. the one that was cincy usf got bet down. im not saying the value lies with the road teams in these games at all, its just simply not their like it used to be with the home teams. the public hasnt changed at all, but the books have. i do think the sheer numbers of the "public" has changed. i used to know about 8 people that bet on cbb and i only know 3 now. i happened to talk to all 3 of these guys yesterday and they all liked at least 2 of these games i mentioned. in the past these games would have went 0-3 last night they go 2-1 or 1-1-1. im not saying it would be like this on every night by any stretch of the imagination, but i do think it throws the balance on at least 8-10% of the games. this is a form of gambling where 40% is terrible and 60% is great, so 10% is a HUGE deal. i just dont think the book has the sheer amount of people betting on these games, and the serious bettors havent left but the casuals have, so they have to level the playing field. i watched almost all of the iowa ohio st game last night (i had iowa) and it was pretty clear that the teams were very evenly matched, in years past though i think i would have got the win for picking the "lucky loser" (this is what i call it when the worse team is getting a little bit and loses straight up but wins on the spread) but when the spread is 1 there is no lucky loser, you gotta win the game. the wake maryland game was a similar situation, in years past if that line opened at 1.5 it would have moved to 3 or 3.5 almost for sure, this year it goes off at 2 i believe so it was either a wake win or a push.
honestly this does no good for the remainder of this year as we are heading into tournament time now, and i still feel like there are situations where the public misreads the game completely and i dont wanna get into those now, but i just think the actual value of taking these small home dogs is completely gone without the safety net of a couple points being there anymore.
value just isnt there anymore with the short home dogs. last night was a great example. we had 3 games where a better team was barely favored on the road. ohio st iowa, wake md, and cincy usf. in years past these lines would have been 3 or 3.5 most likely. the one that was cincy usf got bet down. im not saying the value lies with the road teams in these games at all, its just simply not their like it used to be with the home teams. the public hasnt changed at all, but the books have. i do think the sheer numbers of the "public" has changed. i used to know about 8 people that bet on cbb and i only know 3 now. i happened to talk to all 3 of these guys yesterday and they all liked at least 2 of these games i mentioned. in the past these games would have went 0-3 last night they go 2-1 or 1-1-1. im not saying it would be like this on every night by any stretch of the imagination, but i do think it throws the balance on at least 8-10% of the games. this is a form of gambling where 40% is terrible and 60% is great, so 10% is a HUGE deal. i just dont think the book has the sheer amount of people betting on these games, and the serious bettors havent left but the casuals have, so they have to level the playing field. i watched almost all of the iowa ohio st game last night (i had iowa) and it was pretty clear that the teams were very evenly matched, in years past though i think i would have got the win for picking the "lucky loser" (this is what i call it when the worse team is getting a little bit and loses straight up but wins on the spread) but when the spread is 1 there is no lucky loser, you gotta win the game. the wake maryland game was a similar situation, in years past if that line opened at 1.5 it would have moved to 3 or 3.5 almost for sure, this year it goes off at 2 i believe so it was either a wake win or a push.
honestly this does no good for the remainder of this year as we are heading into tournament time now, and i still feel like there are situations where the public misreads the game completely and i dont wanna get into those now, but i just think the actual value of taking these small home dogs is completely gone without the safety net of a couple points being there anymore.
