Value in baseball totals

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if you want to play the over and one spot has it at 8 1/2 ov20 and the other at 9u35 which is better. At what number do you change your mind?

Just wanted to hear some expert opinions. Thanks.
 

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Even though 9 is a key number I feel over the 9 +115 has more value in my opinion.
 

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Without going into a whole littany right now, because I am very tired, the most important numbers are odd (7, 9, 11) due to all of the one run games which exist (nearly 1/3 of all games end in 1 run). The value of each number, and consequently the cost to buy off of and onto each one is specific to that number. There are many other exogenous factors as well. I know several people who have spent years upon years compiling db's detailing the value of each number (with a home dog, total at x, fave of -40 to -60) etc. I would be doing them (and myself) a disservice by posting this on a public board. I will be called a dick from every which angle, but I refuse to post this publically because it can only hurt me in the long run. There were years when BM's charged 10c to buy off a 3 in foots. Those days are over because of how much information was made known. Do some of your own research, spend time, ask the right questions to the right people and you will certainly pick up a few things. The food chain is really long. You are will certainly find good info on this and other boards when you wade through the shit, but to the type of info you seek, presented in the right way is the result of lots of work which I cant take credit for, nor can I dispel. Good luck.
 

There's always next year, like in 75, 90-93, 99 &
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I like Krackmans thinking ...
no way is the hook worth paying 35 cents, not even for a 9.

20 cents - maybe.
 
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Just curious..Thanx

Me personally, it would depend on the game i suppose.
If i am that confident in the OVER (8 1/2-9) then i would jump to the value with 9 at 15.

Would vary game to game though, imo.
Pick a game some time, before it goes off, and ask the same, would be interesting to see the responses, imo.
 
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Thanks for the replies. I knew there would be some informative answers. This bothers me every night as part of me wants the best number possible, and part wants the best value.

Docdekay, I could tell by some of your other post you are sharp. This just confirms it for me.
 

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Here's an old sheet on how often numbers are hit in totals. May not be exactly right but it is close. Once you know this if you think about it you will be able to get a general idea on how to work out which is better for you.

Total Runs

5>- 21.5%
6 - 6.5%
7 - 10.4%
8 - 7.3%
9 - 9.7%
10 - 6.7%
11 - 8.1%
12 - 5.0%
13 - 5.9%
14<- 18.8%


[This message was edited by Patrick McIrish on July 10, 2003 at 06:05 AM.]
 

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