Utah @ MICH

[KDawgg]

Originally I liked Utah at the +6' opener but didn't pull the trigger. As the line dropped I thought, "yup Utah was the right side and probably still is" ... but I'm trying to avoid going against the big10 this week (value? regression?) and there was something else I was uneasy about that I couldn't put my finger on until I read rolltides thread and I figured out what it was. One of his posted systems this week is "oppose well rested away team in gm 3 off blowout win and cover.
So oppose Utah and Cal, play Mich and Ari. This system isn't just random it shows potentially overvalued sides that are overvalued because of a bye, a blowout win and small sample size. I couldn't find a preseason line for this game but I gotta think it was at least 7, maybe even 8. Now its down to 3'.
Although I think Utah has the lines on both sides of the ball and the passing game to beat Mich, I can't help to think -3' is very good value on Mich. We play numbers not teams right? Utah is the right team but Mich seems like the correct #.
Please talk me out of this.

 

[sendacash]

What are your thoughts in Utah QB Wilson? He's got the second highest QB rating thus far, but have only played Idaho St. and Fresno whose D is pure garbage this year. I have not seen them play yet, didn't they bring the coach in from Wyoming to be the OC? I think you may be right though that all the anti Big-10 sentiment may have sucked all the value out of the Utah side(My # is Mich -5). Utah away from Salt Lake has never been great and it looks like the bet % is backing them at a 74% clip thus far as well.

 

[KDawgg]

I can vouch for Utah qb Travis Wilson. He played hurt and also missed time last year but he is a good Qb. I also like hc wittingham even with all the hot seat talk. He is better than Hoke. Again I like Utah as a team but not the value playing in the big house.

 

[sendacash]

On a side note, that Goff kid from Cal seems to be rising up the QB rankings. You are a PAC10 guy right, how has Cal fared in Zona in the past. I know they are not known as a great road team in general, but that was under the old coaching regime mostly. Getting more than a TD with an offense that can score and the better QB is not a bad idea imo.

 

[KDawgg]

Goff is a stud as are his receivers particularly Chris Harper. Cal's last two visits to Ari:
2010 Cal was +6' @ #14 Ari. Ari won 10-9, cal covered.
2008 #25 Cal -2' @ Ari. Ari won and covered 42-27.
I don't think Cal is a bad road team but they are a good home team. My concern with the Cal team is depth, especially ol, lb and db. Also the dropoff from the starting dl to the backups is drastic. Cal's starting dl contains the recruits of Tedford and Tosh which was a top 20 class and was dl focused. In saying that I think this # may be too low now at 7' in the same exact pattern of the Utah/MICH gm. I grabbed Cal +14 at the open and just played Ari -7' for a bit more than my original play. Cal is my team and I hope they win but two gms vs a shorthanded Northwestern and Sac St doesn't indicate a complete turnaround yet.

 

[sendacash]

jeez, I didn't realize the game was down to 7.5/8. Yeah definitely try to middle that shiat bro

 

[KDawgg]

RE: Cal @ ARI
To add on to what I was saying about not seeing this as a turnaround for cal yet after two gms... Northwestern also claimed that the defense wore the wrong wristbands and were confused in the defensive playcalling until halftime when they figured it out and then played much better. I can't say its true but worth noting. Also Cal surprised them by playing true fresh qb rubenzer who is a dual threat. -7' is low. Agree that Cal should be a good dog team this yr especially vs teams that can't overwhelm the ol if Cal regains some of the value they were getting preseason.

 

[CharlieJ]

No way michigan should be favored by any amount of points. Only reason they are is the brand name michigan. Take the points no matter what and enjoy your winnings... By the way utah's coach is 2-0 vs Brady until this team can show me improvement take points at home and lay off on the road

 

[sendacash]

When even the homers want to sell, it is a buy signal to me

 

[CharlieJ]

When even the homers want to sell, it is a buy signal to me

Is that how you handicap games? Good luck

 

[sendacash]

Is that how you handicap games? Good luck

Please don't take this personally, but yes this is one way and there are many others. In this case, it comes down to line value.

 

[CharlieJ]

Please don't take this personally, but yes this is one way and there are many others. In this case, it comes down to line value.

No problem I'm just trying to help out. It's tuff to bet a team laying points that has 7 turnovers since the 2nd half of notre dame game

 

[Greenbacks]

Line been dropping day by day...

Take the points....Utah might even win SU.

GL

 

[sendacash]

Are you guys really serious about Utah? This is an above average Mountain West squad and a below average PAC squad not known to travel well.

 

[Greenbacks]

Are you guys really serious about Utah? This is an above average Mountain West squad and a below average PAC squad not known to travel well.

And no way was Virginia going to beat Louisville...

Or B.C. going to beat USC...

Oh and Auburn was going to smoke K St.

Utah is the play....

How much more does the line have to drop???...LOL.

Vegas Set the line at 6.5 and Utah money dropped this line to 4.5...

Hello!

 

[sendacash]

And no way was Virginia going to beat Louisville...

Or B.C. going to beat USC...

Oh and Auburn was going to smoke K St.

Utah is the play....

How much more does the line have to drop???...LOL.

Vegas Set the line at 6.5 and Utah money dropped this line to 4.5...

Hello!

There is something different about this game though right?

 

[Greenbacks]

There is something different about this game though right?

My mistake...The line is 3.5....So from 6.5 to 3.5....3 point drop.....I think the writings on the wall bro....Utah is the play no doubt in my mind.

Good luck with whatever you do.

 

[sendacash]

My mistake...The line is 3.5....So from 6.5 to 3.5....3 point drop.....I think the writings on the wall bro....Utah is the play no doubt in my mind.

Good luck with whatever you do.

The Mich home field is worth 5, with 75% on Utah I think you are going to need some luck as well buddy.

 

[Greenbacks]

There is something different about this game though right?

I like 6 plays Saturday...

Indiana +13.5
N.C. +3
Akron +9.5
Utah +3.5
Appalachian St. +2.5
O.D.-Rice.....over 62

 

[Greenbacks]

The Mich home field is worth 5, with 75% on Utah I think you are going to need some luck as well buddy.

No need to argue....talk after Michigan gets spanked on their home turf....lol.

Lines dont drop 3 points for no reason....lol