Last week this system forecast the Falcons' win over the Cardinals. This week it has three active games.
The system is repeated below:
In 2002 the Houston Texans were added to the league to make 32 teams rather than the unwieldy 31. The league took the opportunity to realign the league into eight divisions with four teams each. This made the assigning the by weeks much simpler. Now, there are byes only in weeks 3-9. Previously some teams opened the season with a bye!
The specific trend we present here involves the simple situation when a favorite by more than six points has a bye week next. Teams in this situation are a combined 19-1 ATS since 2002, covering by an average of 10.0 ppg and they are 20-0 straight up, winning by an average of 18.9 ppg.
The lone blemish on this record came when the Bears got a TD at the 2:00 minute warning to get the backdoor cover vs the Vikings in 2004.
The reasoning seems pretty obvious. A team that is going into a bye week will want to spend the week enjoying a solid effort rather than listening to their coach bark at them and forcing extra practices. When a team is a heavy favorite, one of the main reasons to bet against them covering the spread is that they are look-ahead to a tougher opponent next week.
When a team is looking ahead to a bye, they can be 100% focused on their current opponent and play the entire 48 minutes.
This system has already produced THREE winners THIS season as the Chargers tagged the Titans 40-7 as a 11-point choice, the Cowboys beat Washington 27-10 laying 6’ and the Falcons beat the Cardinals 32-10 laying 7.
This week, the Colts, Jaguars and Patriots ALL qualify!
Systems such as this one are interesting to consider and discuss in a forum, but they are by no means "sure things." Only a thorough investigation of all aspects of a game will result in long-term handicapping success.
Good Luck to everyone! Comments appreciated.
