<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by THE SHRINK:
Fishhead,
Hope you got off the game. The reason the line never went back up to 17 is because the WISE GUYS I know actually took 18's, 17 1/2's, and even 17's, with some followers also taking the worse of the number...
Apparently, too, the sharper books held the line at 16 or so to induce PUBLIC to bet SOUTHERN CAL, which they did...
Congrats to those of you who WON...
Not a bad game at all to watch...
THE SHRINK <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I guess I must be the wisest guy since I took VT +19.5 about 5 days ago, through a guy in town. But does it matter? Or are the guys that got the +20.5 at a couple shops even wiser still? USC wasn't close to covering any of those numbers anyways. I also put up some reasoning about 2.5 days before the game when it was still widely available at that 18.5. Does that matter. It wasn't even a real opinion, but what I had seen at practices, and anyone that watched the game saw that it was pretty accurate.
That goes along with some things in this thread, and in other forums I saw. Guys posted VT +16.5 and +17 as their plays, with no real reasons whatsoever.
Obviously they won, but let's play the "if" game. What if they (USC) won by 17? Is it still a "good call". Obviously it doesn't matter in this case. But when guys like throwing around words like "sharp" and "wise" isn't that the basic premise? To avoid those possibilities and "ifs".
If someone had put VT up 3 or 4 days ago at +18.5 would that have been a "better call"? Or because both won anyway does it really matter?
That is why I laugh when I see people sweat these line moves so much. Go back through this thread and look at the number of guys that got off this game because of theline move. Then look at the guys that finally bet USC when they hit rock bottom. They did exactly what the books wanted. They steered guys away from a winner one way, and sucked guys into a loser the other. In the end NO numbeer they had posted was in jeopardy either way. Meaning even the guys that took the middle shot didn't even have a chance, so they still lost the vig one way.
Kind of ironic for a guy like me to be talking about this, since I am a notorious scalper in baseball, but in football and other spread based sports I have always said, don't sweat those line moves. Said it before this game. Said that if you did lose on a line move, it was bad luck, not being wise or unwise.
Shrink even said in the quote followers took the "worse" number. How is it worse if it stil wins? But, even though I say linemoves don't really matter, taking a 15.5 or 16 when you could have had 18 or better for a week isn't "smart". It is still a winner, but over the long haul you will undoubtedly get caught taking numbers that far off once in awhile. But in the grand scheme if you make enough plays they will be absorbed. But when you have so long to take that number take it. If it moves a hlaf point against you it is a no brainer if youl ike that side, but it is assinine to wait and watch it drop out of the clouds, then bet it at the bottom.
This is mostly a tongue in cheek post, but if you go back and read this thread from the beginning and see how it developed, you might find my points are pretty well substantiated.
By no means do I think I am sharp, but according to some people's definition I probably could be characterized that way.
