60% on a large number of plays is virtually impossible.
The best proof I can give is that if you bet 10% of Bankroll on each play, your bankroll over the long run grows at 1% per play. So if you go 1200-800 it will turn $1,000 into millions and then billions.
People say "Well, you wouldn't be able to bet 1mm on a game". Yeah right. "Nobody" ever gets to that level.
People say "The ups and downs would kill you". Not true. Go 1200-800 and the order does not matter. Keep betting 10% of bankroll per play and you rapidly make millions. Of course, hit only 55% and you go broke.
But the key point is that if anyone truly could hit 60% on many plays, he could set aside a little fun money, take a potshot, and he would own the world after a long time.
55% is the number the true, VERY gifted pros hit. And they make a fortune hitting 55%.
The best proof I can give is that if you bet 10% of Bankroll on each play, your bankroll over the long run grows at 1% per play. So if you go 1200-800 it will turn $1,000 into millions and then billions.
People say "Well, you wouldn't be able to bet 1mm on a game". Yeah right. "Nobody" ever gets to that level.
People say "The ups and downs would kill you". Not true. Go 1200-800 and the order does not matter. Keep betting 10% of bankroll per play and you rapidly make millions. Of course, hit only 55% and you go broke.
But the key point is that if anyone truly could hit 60% on many plays, he could set aside a little fun money, take a potshot, and he would own the world after a long time.
55% is the number the true, VERY gifted pros hit. And they make a fortune hitting 55%.
Not fezzik here, but if you re-adjust your bets to 10% of your current bankroll after every bet, win or lose, you will end up with the same figure. The order of the wins & losses won't matter in the end. To prove this to yourself, write out possible sequences of wins & losses on paper for 10 games.(Start with W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,L - Then figure L,L,L,L,W,W,W,W,W,W.) Try any order of wins & losses - the important thing is to readjust your bet to 10% of your current bankroll after every bet.
Mike
Mike
The point I was trying to make about the double-digit losing streaks can be explained using a little example.
Let's say you start out with $10,000. You bet 10% for each bet. Then, let's say you get to $13,000 when you make 10 losing bets in a row. Betting 10% on each bet would result in the numbers listed below which would end up with $4,531. How can you rebound from this low of a BR?
13,000
11,700
10,530
9,477
8,529
7,676
6,908
6,217
5,595
5,035
4,531
Let's say you start out with $10,000. You bet 10% for each bet. Then, let's say you get to $13,000 when you make 10 losing bets in a row. Betting 10% on each bet would result in the numbers listed below which would end up with $4,531. How can you rebound from this low of a BR?
13,000
11,700
10,530
9,477
8,529
7,676
6,908
6,217
5,595
5,035
4,531
The problems with br "adjustment" after losses are that you must go on an incredible streak to get back over the hump.. You can scale back after maybe a 50% increase, when ahead (or be smart and cash out), but don't bet smaller... Betting smaller not the way to go. Flat unit betting only way..
For gosh sakes, please pay attention to Fezzik when he writes about bet sizing in any way. If you are capable of generating any handicapping edge on your own, then mastering Fez's advice on the art of wagering should be enough to make you very sucessful in the long run.
I've had some fun pestering Fezzik lately on another site because I'm a damn good NFL handicapper and I like to call Fezzik out when his reasoning for a play gets a bit loose. But you can do far more for yourself in this game by understanding how to recognize and estimate your edge and utilizing that info effectively. And there is no better publicly available source for this knowledge than Fezzik. Bar none.
Instead of simply disagreeing with Fezzik, ask him to expound and further elucidate. Because he is basically a decent guy, he will. And you will learn.
I've had some fun pestering Fezzik lately on another site because I'm a damn good NFL handicapper and I like to call Fezzik out when his reasoning for a play gets a bit loose. But you can do far more for yourself in this game by understanding how to recognize and estimate your edge and utilizing that info effectively. And there is no better publicly available source for this knowledge than Fezzik. Bar none.
Instead of simply disagreeing with Fezzik, ask him to expound and further elucidate. Because he is basically a decent guy, he will. And you will learn.
