[h=1]Updated NBA title odds[/h][h=3]Spurs have best shot of winning crown heading into second round[/h]By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider
With the first round of the NBA playoffs in the books, the championship picture is hardly any clearer than it was two weeks ago. Favorites in both conferences survived scares that took them the distance, while the Miami Heat got needed rest after becoming the only team to sweep its opening matchup.
At the conclusion of the conference semifinals, we'll have a much better idea of who's headed to the NBA Finals. For now, here's a look at what the numbers say about which teams are most likely to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy.
Methodology
My playoff projections are based on a regression that maps point differential and head-to-head results to the outcome of series from 2003-13. As I wrote about Giant Killers, regular-season matchups are a good predictor of playoff series, and indeed the only team without home-court advantage in the first round that won the season series (the Washington Wizards) pulled off a first-round upset. The Portland Trail Blazers were the only team to advance after losing the season series. (Three other winners split head-to-head with their opponents.)
For point differential, I used a blend of 80 percent season-long differential adjusted for opposition, plus 20 percent the same measure from the first round of the playoffs. That and head-to-head results projected the likelihood of a series win in the next two rounds, while differential alone was used for the NBA Finals because two-game interconference series don't have proven predictive value. With estimates of each team's likelihood of making it to a given round, I projected out all possible matchups to determine the likelihood of winning the title.
[h=3]Rankings[/h]
1. San Antonio Spurs (26.4 percent)
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How can the Spurs be considered the favorites when they have such trouble with the Oklahoma City Thunder? Well, this model agrees the Thunder would be the favorites in the event of a 2012 Western Conference finals rematch. However, with home-court advantage and a superior point differential, San Antonio would still be given a decent chance of winning the series (42.4 percent). Additionally, it's no certainty Oklahoma City will make it to the conference finals (or the Spurs, for that matter) given a difficult matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers in the second round. As a result, the team with home-court advantage throughout the playoffs has the best chances of winning, according to this model.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (24.0 percent)
With two easy wins in Games 6 and 7 against the Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City went from the verge of elimination to the toast of the league again. Those performances reminded everyone how good the Thunder can be at their best. Still, Oklahoma City faces the toughest matchup in the conference semifinals of any team with home-court advantage. The model shows Thunder-Clippers as nearly a toss-up, with only home-court advantage giving Oklahoma City the edge. If the Thunder advance, they would become the favorite.
3. Los Angeles Clippers (16.1 percent)
Believe it or not, the Clippers now have the best rating of any team in the NBA. Though they also went the distance in the opening round before knocking out the Golden State Warriors, a Game 2 blowout and the strength of the Warriors means the Clippers' series rated as the most impressive of any team. Add the league's second-best point differential in the regular season, and L.A. is a formidable team limited only by not having home-court advantage this round and likely again during the conference finals.
4. Miami Heat (13.7 percent)
While this model generally agrees with the betting lines in Las Vegas, it parts ways on the Heat. According to VegasInsider.com, Miami is a heavy favorite to win the championship, with an implied 40 percent chance of doing so. These projections are much more skeptical about the Heat even getting to the Finals. Because Miami lost the season series 4-0 to the Brooklyn Nets, this upcoming matchup rates as a challenging one. And though the Heat rate as the far better team, the Indiana Pacers are given nearly 50-50 odds in a possible conference finals rematch because of home-court advantage.
I'd agree that this model understates Miami's chances of getting to the NBA Finals. I'm less convinced the Heat should be favored against whoever comes out of the West. Since all three top West contenders have been much better over the course of the season, such an argument is predicated on Miami having an extra gear in the playoffs. If that's the case, the Heat didn't consistently show it against West powers in the regular season, splitting with both Oklahoma City and San Antonio. (The Heat swept the Clippers, but Chris Paul did not play in their matchup in L.A.)
5. Indiana Pacers (11.2 percent)
Optimism about the Pacers -- who project to make the NBA Finals more often than Miami -- is based on two factors. It partially reflects the likelihood that eventually Indiana, which rated worse in the first round than six of the eight series losers, will play more as it did over the course of the season. More importantly, it showcases the historical importance of home-court advantage. If the Heat were hosting the potential matchup, their estimated chances of winning would rise from 52 percent to 69 percent. The Pacers were right to make the No. 1 seed their goal during the regular season.
6. Portland Trail Blazers (4.8 percent)
Put the Blazers in the East and they'd have an excellent chance to reach the NBA Finals. Out West, despite an impressive series against the Houston Rockets, they appear to be a cut below the other semifinalists. Portland matches up well with all three teams; they split with the Spurs and Thunder and beat the Clippers 2-1 during the regular season, but come up short in terms of point differential.
7. Washington Wizards (3.2 percent)
Subjectively, the Wizards have the best hope of advancing of any of the teams without home-court advantage in the semifinals. That alone gives Washington a puncher's chance of reaching the NBA Finals.
In the event they make it there, however, the Wizards would be heavy underdogs.
8. Brooklyn Nets (0.6 percent)
In an extreme oddity, the model gives the Nets a better chance of knocking off the Heat than winning the Eastern Conference finals if they get there. While Brooklyn swept the season series with Miami, the Nets got swept by both Indiana (3-0) and Washington (4-0) this season. If the Nets make it that far, fatigue would be a major concern for a veteran lineup relying on Joe Johnson to log 40-plus minutes a night.
With the first round of the NBA playoffs in the books, the championship picture is hardly any clearer than it was two weeks ago. Favorites in both conferences survived scares that took them the distance, while the Miami Heat got needed rest after becoming the only team to sweep its opening matchup.
At the conclusion of the conference semifinals, we'll have a much better idea of who's headed to the NBA Finals. For now, here's a look at what the numbers say about which teams are most likely to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy.
Methodology
My playoff projections are based on a regression that maps point differential and head-to-head results to the outcome of series from 2003-13. As I wrote about Giant Killers, regular-season matchups are a good predictor of playoff series, and indeed the only team without home-court advantage in the first round that won the season series (the Washington Wizards) pulled off a first-round upset. The Portland Trail Blazers were the only team to advance after losing the season series. (Three other winners split head-to-head with their opponents.)
For point differential, I used a blend of 80 percent season-long differential adjusted for opposition, plus 20 percent the same measure from the first round of the playoffs. That and head-to-head results projected the likelihood of a series win in the next two rounds, while differential alone was used for the NBA Finals because two-game interconference series don't have proven predictive value. With estimates of each team's likelihood of making it to a given round, I projected out all possible matchups to determine the likelihood of winning the title.
[h=3]Rankings[/h]
1. San Antonio Spurs (26.4 percent)
<OFFER></OFFER>
How can the Spurs be considered the favorites when they have such trouble with the Oklahoma City Thunder? Well, this model agrees the Thunder would be the favorites in the event of a 2012 Western Conference finals rematch. However, with home-court advantage and a superior point differential, San Antonio would still be given a decent chance of winning the series (42.4 percent). Additionally, it's no certainty Oklahoma City will make it to the conference finals (or the Spurs, for that matter) given a difficult matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers in the second round. As a result, the team with home-court advantage throughout the playoffs has the best chances of winning, according to this model.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (24.0 percent)
With two easy wins in Games 6 and 7 against the Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City went from the verge of elimination to the toast of the league again. Those performances reminded everyone how good the Thunder can be at their best. Still, Oklahoma City faces the toughest matchup in the conference semifinals of any team with home-court advantage. The model shows Thunder-Clippers as nearly a toss-up, with only home-court advantage giving Oklahoma City the edge. If the Thunder advance, they would become the favorite.
3. Los Angeles Clippers (16.1 percent)
Believe it or not, the Clippers now have the best rating of any team in the NBA. Though they also went the distance in the opening round before knocking out the Golden State Warriors, a Game 2 blowout and the strength of the Warriors means the Clippers' series rated as the most impressive of any team. Add the league's second-best point differential in the regular season, and L.A. is a formidable team limited only by not having home-court advantage this round and likely again during the conference finals.
4. Miami Heat (13.7 percent)
While this model generally agrees with the betting lines in Las Vegas, it parts ways on the Heat. According to VegasInsider.com, Miami is a heavy favorite to win the championship, with an implied 40 percent chance of doing so. These projections are much more skeptical about the Heat even getting to the Finals. Because Miami lost the season series 4-0 to the Brooklyn Nets, this upcoming matchup rates as a challenging one. And though the Heat rate as the far better team, the Indiana Pacers are given nearly 50-50 odds in a possible conference finals rematch because of home-court advantage.
I'd agree that this model understates Miami's chances of getting to the NBA Finals. I'm less convinced the Heat should be favored against whoever comes out of the West. Since all three top West contenders have been much better over the course of the season, such an argument is predicated on Miami having an extra gear in the playoffs. If that's the case, the Heat didn't consistently show it against West powers in the regular season, splitting with both Oklahoma City and San Antonio. (The Heat swept the Clippers, but Chris Paul did not play in their matchup in L.A.)
5. Indiana Pacers (11.2 percent)
Optimism about the Pacers -- who project to make the NBA Finals more often than Miami -- is based on two factors. It partially reflects the likelihood that eventually Indiana, which rated worse in the first round than six of the eight series losers, will play more as it did over the course of the season. More importantly, it showcases the historical importance of home-court advantage. If the Heat were hosting the potential matchup, their estimated chances of winning would rise from 52 percent to 69 percent. The Pacers were right to make the No. 1 seed their goal during the regular season.
6. Portland Trail Blazers (4.8 percent)
Put the Blazers in the East and they'd have an excellent chance to reach the NBA Finals. Out West, despite an impressive series against the Houston Rockets, they appear to be a cut below the other semifinalists. Portland matches up well with all three teams; they split with the Spurs and Thunder and beat the Clippers 2-1 during the regular season, but come up short in terms of point differential.
7. Washington Wizards (3.2 percent)
Subjectively, the Wizards have the best hope of advancing of any of the teams without home-court advantage in the semifinals. That alone gives Washington a puncher's chance of reaching the NBA Finals.
In the event they make it there, however, the Wizards would be heavy underdogs.
8. Brooklyn Nets (0.6 percent)
In an extreme oddity, the model gives the Nets a better chance of knocking off the Heat than winning the Eastern Conference finals if they get there. While Brooklyn swept the season series with Miami, the Nets got swept by both Indiana (3-0) and Washington (4-0) this season. If the Nets make it that far, fatigue would be a major concern for a veteran lineup relying on Joe Johnson to log 40-plus minutes a night.
