Updated College Win Totals & 3yr Avg from Steele

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I love Penn State at over 7.5 but I'm not crazy about the -160. If I was focusing on a team to bet in some GOY plays, I think it would be PSU. The only 2 games I can see them probably losing for sure are at Ohio State and Sparty. Otherwise I think they have a chance to run the table with the rest of their schedule. USC over 8.5 looks good. But there's that high juice again...
 

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Yeah I also think psu will be better, I see them giving sparty a game without their d.c who moved to Pitt.

In the B10 my potential plays would be: Mich Under, Sparty Under, Neb Under.
Don't usually like playing overs on win totals but maybe Minnesota & Penn St Over
 

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Im growing to the idea of Penn State as I try and figure out how that 2nd spot pecking order plays out in the East. I like PSU skill players. The D is most likely tops in the conference. It alk comes down to oline development and Hackenberg. Im not sold on him vs the hype, but he's good enough that even an ok line should have them over and possibly jumping MSU for runner up.
 

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Im growing to the idea of Penn State as I try and figure out how that 2nd spot pecking order plays out in the East. I like PSU skill players. The D is most likely tops in the conference. It alk comes down to oline development and Hackenberg. Im not sold on him vs the hype, but he's good enough that even an ok line should have them over and possibly jumping MSU for runner up.
I think the gamble we always take with these futures is trying to figure out how much of a bump in production a unit has the next season with the same cast of characters. With their defense being so good, I'm gambling that PSU's offense is going to go from awful to adequate. But I feel like the odds are more with me than against me because they were so young last year on the offensive line. Then you combine that with the lack of depth, injuries and a new line coach, they were destined to struggle.. But those issues no longer apply with 80% of the 2 deep returning, and possibly most importantly the players now being more familiar with the scheme. And excellent JUCO Paris Palmer added to the mix. I'm very tempted to take the over 7.5 with this team even with the high juice.
 

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Juice is the killer with these types of wagers. -150 means you are giving 3/2. -200 means you are giving 2/1. I always try to find a wager that gives me a little odds, instead of having to lay the odds. I have 6 such wagers, 4 of which is plus odds. One, Oregon Over 9.5, is -130. I feel rather safe with that wager.
 

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I generally don't like high juice bets either. We had Penn State projected at 8.5 wins. Whenever we are a full point difference on these win totals I generally put a little down on it. Our projections usually aren't more than a half a win off from the opener. So this looks like a pretty good play. I also like to look for the .5 on a win total. I would rather outright win or lose these types of bets than wait a full season for a push.
 

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You have to judge these bets on an individual basis... -150 might not be inviting to you at the moment.. But I have seen these -150's go to -300 or more.. USC under -150 under 10 1/2 a couple years ago was a great bet..Think it went to at least -300..I had a pretty good feel that total was going under.. If my limit on the juice is -130 I could be passing up a great play..
 

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I'm working on projected season wins for the first time right now by running match ups for all the games. I'm in the process of adding recruiting ranks, returning starters etc. to temper the lines. Offhand, it seems like high juice would be too prohibitive in cases where the win total involves a higher number of closely projected wins, but less so when you see the team matching the win total with games you project the team to win by a semi-comfortable margin. Yes, this seems pretty obvious, lol, but I'm curious how others use closely projected games to modify their projected win totals for teams. I'm still mulling the options of using either a confidence rating along with the number, or just modifying the number itself.
 

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I'm working on projected season wins for the first time right now by running match ups for all the games. I'm in the process of adding recruiting ranks, returning starters etc. to temper the lines. Offhand, it seems like high juice would be too prohibitive in cases where the win total involves a higher number of closely projected wins, but less so when you see the team matching the win total with games you project the team to win by a semi-comfortable margin. Yes, this seems pretty obvious, lol, but I'm curious how others use closely projected games to modify their projected win totals for teams. I'm still mulling the options of using either a confidence rating along with the number, or just modifying the number itself.

Look forward to checking that out Cruncher, I always enjoy your posts. Very good at forecasting lines & movement.
Just curious will you be doing your thing for NFL this season or just NCAA?
 

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Hey Miller, good to see 'ya. Probably just NCAA again. Hard to do both with a family.
 

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2015-16 COLLEGE FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON WINS
TEAM WINS OVER UNDER
OHIO ST 11.5 -110 -110
TCU 10.5 +120 -140
BAYLOR 10.0 -150 +130
ALABAMA 9.5 -150 +130
AUBURN 8.5 -150 +130
OLE MISS 8.5 -130 +110
USC 9.0 -130 +110
ARKANSAS 8.0 -120 EVEN
CLEMSON 9.5 +110 -130
OREGON 9.5 +110 -130
GEORGIA 9.0 -130 +110
LSU 8.5 +105 -125
OKLAHOMA 8.5 -125 +105
STANFORD 9.0 EVEN -120
UCLA 9.0 -110 -110
MICHIGAN ST 9.5 -150 +130
TEXAS 7.0 +150 -170
TENNESSEE 8.0 -130 +110
FLORIDA ST 9.0 -140 +120
GEORGIA TECH 7.5 -140 +120
WISCONSIN 9.5 -110 -110
ARIZONA ST 7.5 -150 +130
MISSISSIPPI ST 7.0 -135 +115
TEXAS A&M 8.0 -110 -110
OKLAHOMA ST 8.0 +110 -130
LOUISVILLE 7.5 EVEN -120
KANSAS ST 7.0 -145 +125
WEST VIRGINIA 7.5 EVEN -120
FLORIDA 7.0 -140 +120
VIRGINIA TECH 8.0 -110 -110
BOISE ST 10.0 EVEN -120
MISSOURI 7.5 -140 +130
MICHIGAN 7.5 -140 +120
ARIZONA 7.5 -130 +110
UTAH 7.5 EVEN -120
SOUTH CAROLINA 6.5 EVEN -120
NEBRASKA 8.5 +130 -150
PENN ST 8.5 EVEN -120
NEVADA 6.0 -110 -110
UNLV 2.5 +130 -150
NOTRE DAME 9.0 -110 -110
MIAMI FL 7.0 +115 -135

Via LVH, refuse to call it westgate.
Was out in Vegas for bachelor party last weekend, still nursing a hangover.
Below are my season win total gems & a few championship plays.
 

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Missouri Over 7.5 (-140)...$840
As always underrated with great coach, solid o-line & good defense/qb.
Schedule isn't too brutal either.

Ok St Over 8 (+110)...$550
Really like this young qb and all their tough games are at home.
Should start off guns blazing I can see a 6 or 7-1 start.

Utah Over 7.5 (+100)...$400

Michigan Under 7.5 (+120)...$500

Tx Am Under 8 (-110)...$330

Florida Under 7 (+120)...$250


LSU to win SEC (+1000)...$150

Navy to win AAC (+800)...$200

Ga Tech to win ACC (+500)...$250

The Ohio State University undefeated national champs (+1000)...$300
 

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Utah is a dangerous wager. They had a good season last year, but it was their first decent season since joining the PAC 12. They return a lot of starters. The bad news is that everyone knows this so unlike last season, they sneak up on no one this season. They may not win a road conference game (at Oregon, USC, Washington and Arizona). An opening loss to Michigan pops the ball on and could well led to a 5-7 season. Utah State, Arizona State, and UCLA are other home games that can easily be losses.

Texas A&M has three easy non-con winners. Their cross over games are with South Carolina at home, and at Vandy. They get Miss. State, Alabama and Auburn at home. There are a lot easier wagers on the board than this one. Sumlin has gone downhill steadily since he got to A&M. 11-2 to 9-4 to 8-5 is a trend. Under 8 wins this season, with 16 starters returning, is pink slip material.

Florida Under 7 is a solid wager, especially getting 12/10. Give them three patsy non-con win, and a win at home against Vandy. Show me three more winners, because I sure could not find them. Solid wager.

Mizzou is a good wager with some terrible odds. you are giving 7-5. They have 1 player on the DL coming back. Good running teams should have a field day agaqinst this group. That means Georgia, BYU, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Not worth giving 7/5.
 

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U my man are the biggest troll on this forum.
Thanks for all that insight. U can have Utah Under and Tx Am Over all day.
probably some losers mixed in there but no doubt these plays will turn a profit
 

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Way to early to tell, but pokes & utes should be money.
On the flip i under estimated aggies & gators for sure.
Mizzou sneaking past uconn & losing to uk is troubling as well.
Time will tell, like everything. As always Folks keep it in the black
 

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