Unusual Prop Bet

[ESQAJM]

I rarely bet the football props that last all season long because (1)I don't have the patience to wait for the end of the season and (2) anything can happen over the course of a season.

My book just put out a new prop:
Which Conference will have the first running back to run for over 1000 yards?
AFC -120
NFC -110

To me this looks too easy. Almost all of the top running backs are in the AFC. I just bet the AFC and am thinking about going back and betting more. Am I missing something?
ESQAJM

 

[BigLou+]

Tough call because even though the AFC has Jamal Lewis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes and Fred Taylor, there are some solid running backs in the NFC including Ahman Green, Clinton Portis, Deuce McAllister, Shaun Alexander and Stephen Davis. Good luck to you as always.

Big Lou

 

[ESQAJM]

I just went back to the book's web site and the line on the prop bet moved to:
AFC -150
NFC -120
I made the bet about an hour ago at -120. My bet,while not small, was not that large to cause such a big jump in the line. I think that when my bet came in the book realized they were giving this prop away.

Lou: The prop lines to win the NFL rushing title are:
AFC
Lewis +675
Tomlinson +410
Holmes +525

NFC
Green +650
Portis +725
Alexander +1200
McAllister +1200
Davis +1400

Basically it's 3 runners in the AFC with a shot at it against 2 in the NFC and 2 of the 3 in the AFC are rated stronger than any in the NFC.
ESQAJM

 

[hansenbros.]

discipline!!!! those props are risky business!! there is just as much of a chance of someone winning the rush title that is NOT among the aforementioned!

gl

 

[danoli]

"just as much chance" hansen bros.?!! A slight exaggeration I'd say as I'd be piling on if I could get all the above names at -110 against the Field!
At first sight ESQAJM your bet looks like a great price as you tend to think first of Holmes, Lewis and Tomlinson as being the guys who are going to get the most carries. Alexander, Davis or Mcallister is going to really have to step up from previous years to threaten them, but Portis is a bit of a wild card. Will he get more or less of the ball this year and how will playing in Washington affect his yardage? A tough one but I'd rather be on the AFC than the NFC.

 

[SpaciousK]

Brian Westbrook....