I don't know how much weight you can put into these poll rankings, especially when you get into the teams down in the teens. They have LSU down at #20 and I guarantee you LSU would be favored in Vegas over at least half the teams ranked in front of them on a neutral. Miami closed the season strong with 4 straight covers, albeit in the easier portion of their schedule but maybe that was enough to give them a power ratings boost. I see mostly 3s out there now and my # is Canes -4 so had a lean towards Miami when it was under 3, but the value appears gone at this point. Have not looked into the game that much, but does appear to show early signs of reverse line movement.
I haven't looked at the game in depth, but I know that statistically Miami is the best defensive team that WV has faced all year. Kansas St probably comes closest on D to Miami in the Big 12. And they held WV to 17 points. You also have to look at the situational angle of this game. Miami has lost their last 5 bowl games in a row. I would imagine this would be the year they really want to get that monkey off their back, with a new coach and all.
