Umirin Adjusted Kenpom System (22-8-1 YTD)

[umirin]

Finished my CBB system three days ago.


6-2 yesterday, 8-3 the day before, 8-3-1 before that.

Many of you are familiar with the kenpom system. To summarize, my system computes the log5 winning percentage for each game. The inputs are each teams' kenpom pythagoreas rating, and the vegas spread. If you are not confident about his ratings, then feel free to fade my picks.


The system outputs one final confidence number for each match.


- A value greater than 0 means road team ATS pick
- A value less than 0 means home team ATS pick


Example:
- If a match has a 11 rating, this means very high confidence on road team to cover spread
- If a match has a -6 rating, this means confident on home team to cover spread
- If a match has a 0 rating, this means neutral


If we bet all +5 or -5 values (arbitrary cutoff for confidence, you can feel free to use 4,5,6,7, whatever you feel safe with), we would be 22-8-1 YTD over the last 3 days. I expect a 70% rate over the long term for picks with a reasonable confidence value (i.e. 5)


Moreover, if we bet every single game, we would be 49-27-1 YTD over all games over the last 3 days. In other words, if for every time the system concluded a value > 0 we picked the road team spread, and every time the system concluded a value < 0, we picked the home team spread, we would have achieved a winning percentage of 64% since I finished the system. I do not expect to maintain 65%, I think a reasonable goal is 60% for all system picks.

 

[umirin]

Values for 01/02/2015:

-3.18

7.57
-2.26
0.77
9.30
7.20
2.92
8.22
6.71
-1.60
7.34
4.69
6.81
9.01
5.63
2.37
-0.85
-5.16
1.69
-2.54
-2.31
3.16

Picks for 01/02/2015:

Format:
Team Name, Spread, Confidence

Youngstown State, -2, +7.57
Valparaiso, -5, +9.30
Florida State, -2, +7.20
UTEP, -9.5, +8.22
Texas San Antonio, +2.5, +8.22
UCLA, +5.5, +7.34
St. Peters, +5.5, +6.81
Rider, -6, +9.01
Siena, +1.5, 5.65
Canisius, -5, -5.16

I will be betting on the high confidence games today like val -5, but any play over 3/4/5 confidence is pretty safe.

Best of luck to all, and may everyone and their families have a safe and happy new year!

 

[dg84]

Interesting. I'll definitely be tracking. Are there limits to the confidence ratings? For example, do they range from +10 to -10 or are there no set parameters? GL.

 

[umirin]

Interesting. I'll definitely be tracking. Are there limits to the confidence ratings? For example, do they range from +10 to -10 or are there no set parameters? GL.

There are no limits. The current highest I see is 18.5, while the lowest is -9.16.

The 7 highest confidence values have a record of 6-0-1, with a combined point margin of +70.5 over the spread, for an average of over +10 points over the spread per game.

The top 20 highest confidence values have a record of 13-6-1, with a combined point margin of +91 over the spread, for an average of +4.55 points over the spread per game (this includes a loss of -20.5 ATS from a 10.5 value pick)

There have only been 5 plays on negative confidence values. As stated before, the lowest is -9.16 and the fifth lowest is -6.35. The record here is 4-1-0, for a combined +36 points over the spread (+7.2 ATS per game). The only loss was a -6.7 value pick by 0.5 points.

 

[tnvolfan]

Good stuff umirin............will you be posting these daily?

 

[umirin]

Good stuff umirin............will you be posting these daily?

Thanks, thats the plan boss

 

[umirin]

Further, some more observations for those who care:

This system is a corollary of the original kenpom system; bet on perceived road underdogs facing perceived home favorites.

Out of 8 losses, 7 were on road favourite picks.

Only once have we lost when the road team was a vegas underdog and the system had a +5 confidence value (for the road team).

Then the question is, if the road team favourite lost 7/8 for us, should we cut them out?

My answer is that 7/8 is not big enough of a sample. Extrapolated to all 27 losses (not just 5+ confidence losses):
Out of 27 total losses, 10 were when the road team was a favourite.
Out of 27 total losses, 14 were when we picked the road team.
Out of those 14 losses, 8 were when the road team was favoured.

I believe this is overall inclusive, however a case can be made for avoiding road team favourites temporarily.

 

[METFAN]

INTERESTING..Good Luck

 

[METFAN]

ARE YOU SAYING TAKE THE HOME TEAM IN THE CANISIUS GAME AND THE ROAD TEAM IN ALL THE REST?

do i hve that right?

 

[Viking65]

Absolutely awesome info umirin!!! Thanx for sharing

 

[dg84]

ARE YOU SAYING TAKE THE HOME TEAM IN THE CANISIUS GAME AND THE ROAD TEAM IN ALL THE REST?

do i hve that right?

That's how I understand it. Although, he did indicate that road favorites haven't performed as well as dogs or home favs so far.

 

[southfloridian]

OK, I'm confused...if following this "system" are we to play the 10 plays???

 

[umirin]

OK, I'm confused...if following this "system" are we to play the 10 plays???

Yes and No. The "system" (which is just one very simple linear math equation) determines how confident it is towards one team for every single match. You can bet on whatever you want, "system play" or not.

For me, I choose to bet on every match that the system is more than 5 or less than -5 confident. If this results in 12 plays and you dont feel comfortable betting 1/3 of the matches in a night, feel absolutely free to increase your confidence threshold to 6, 7, 8, whatever. I have posted all the confidence values (based on numbers at noon EST) for matches today. They correspond to the matches as ordered on vegasinsider. Choosing a confidence of 5 yields 10 plays.

ARE YOU SAYING TAKE THE HOME TEAM IN THE CANISIUS GAME AND THE ROAD TEAM IN ALL THE REST?

do i hve that right?

yes

 

[snowman]

so by this system what are your plays tonight ? Could you please put them in an order that goes from strongest to weakest. THANKS

 

[DrMove]

Pretty sure he said he plays em all. You play what you want. The order is simple just look at the numbers. Hopefully not being a smart@ss, Just saying some make things into rocket science. GL

 

[maddog1987]

Everyone loves a system... I bet them all except the two early games (Youngstown and St Pete - which split) and the MAAC games which I have a very bad history for a small amount. Good luck.

 

[BigTonyC]

Umpiring,

I am trying on my own to calculate your numbers so I do not have to rely on you everyday. I have looked up the website for Kenpom and I cannot follow your calculations. Which numbers are you using for your calculations? Please advise.

Thanks,

Big Tony C

 

[BigTonyC]

Umirin,

Sorry I did not catch the spell check on my first reply.

Tony C.

 

[Biz]

Youngstown State, -2, +7.57 L
Valparaiso, -5, +9.30 L
Florida State, -2, +7.20 L
UTEP, -9.5, +8.22 W
Texas San Antonio, +2.5, +8.22 L
UCLA, +5.5, +7.34 L
St. Peters, +5.5, +6.81 W
Rider, -6, +9.01 W
Siena, +1.5, 5.65 W
Canisius, -5, -5.16 L

4-6 Total
RF: 2-3
RD: 2-2
HF: 0-1

 

[Biz]

Keep posting please, good stuff despite the slight losing night.