Prelims
- Batgerel Danaa bank on his power vs TUF alumni Brady Hiestand. Should be an engaging stylistic match-up despite being relatively low quality. Hiestand will pursue takedowns from the opening bell and likely can put together enough control for decision as long as he don't meet a full power shot from Danaa, I'll chance a big finish and start to the show: Danaa
- William Gomis has the power to stop Francis Marshall early, but "Jaguar" is a slick mover on the feet and it's almost always far safer to back the superior wrestler.
- Mohammed Usman relies completely on one-shot KO power. He has struggled, even with the decrepit pace of HWs and has faced lukewarm competition. Junior Tafa debuts today after a four-KO streak to kickstart his pro career. The Kiwi is more consistent in laying down his power, levels above what Usman offers. Tafa ITD
- Karol Rosa moves up to Featherweight after a this decision over Lina Lansberg. Kinda strange after struggling with Lina’s physicality but FW does offer a shorter route to the title. Who knows if Dumont can find her timing tonight – but if so, she's a surprisingly adept counter-striker. I'll back Rosa on a coin-flip
- Rani Yahya is a proven BJJ wizard and even at 38, has been holding his own over his last 5 or 6 fights. But after a 2-year layoff, it'll be a tough matchup vs a resurgent prospect in Montel Jackson. Although he hasn't been as good as expected, I still see him good enough to avoid any early mat threat and later punish Yahya on the feet. Jackson ITD
- Ricky Glenn returns after 2 years with his usual unrelenting pace. Giagos’ will be most aggressive early and if he can work his wrestling-based game into early points and or damage - he may have a chance. However, "The Spartan" has been shown to fade fast and will struggle keeping up with Glenn’s exhaustless pace.
How did William Gomis win that fight ?
Main Card
- Jeremiah Wells (11-2-1) vs Matt Semelsberger (11-4) ...Both of these dudes hit very hard and mostly depend on single shots. Semelsberger will enjoy a considerable height\reach advantage. Wells has a decent wrestling base that might alter Semelsberger's striking approach. Matt’s exception gas tank is the ace in the hole that probably swings the third round. Semelsberger
- Iasmin Lucindo (13-5) vs Brogan Walker (7-3) ...Lucindo is a young prospect who put up a great fight, albeit a debut loss to Yazmin Jauregui last Aug. She likes to box on the inside and is quite crafty in the clinch – but she may prefer to keep her striking longer vs Brogan Walker’s wrestling threat. "The Bear" also lost her debut fight to a painful 3rd-round G’n’P KO compliments of Juliana Miller. Walker will attempt to walk down Lucindo and that may be enough in this lower-level FW bout. Lucindo decision and Over
- Bobby "King" Green (29-14-1) vs Jared Gordon (19-6) ...Green's been around quite some time and should probably consider hanging up the gloves soon- win or lose. Even though I wouldn't consider hi knockout loss to Drew Dober a major red flag...since his style invites pressure and inevitably leads to occasional punishment. But, at 36 years old, the King’s body is showing the miles of a long career. Gordon doesn't represent the best fighter or style set to exploit Green’s athletic decline. Flash was robbed vs Paddy and it somehow inflated his stock. Gordon is a good control wrestler, but likely struggle with Bobby’s sprawl and gets pieced up in the striking. Green likely by decision and Over
Co-Main Event
- Brad Tavares(19-7) vs Bruno Silva(22-8) ...Tavares has proven a consistent gatekeeper at 185. He brings a very well-rounded skillset without extrodinary abitlity in any particular area. With his striking defense and TDD enough to prevent Silva from rushing into his power punching or above average sub-game. Tavares is the more experienced fighter who will look to bank rounds and succeed in scoring, but I can see Silva’s knack for surprise power punches to flip the script tonight. Silva KO
UFC VEGAS 71 Main Event
- Sergei Pavlovich(17-1) vs Curtis Blaydes(17-3) ...Bad ass Sergei Pavlovich has been on quite the roll the last year with 3 first round KOs of good fighters(Tuivasa, Lewis & Abdurakhimov), following a 3-year hiatus. Some fearsome highlight reels for casuals to eat up. At 6’3″, he's an imposing figure in the octagon. But, it remains to be seen if Sergei has improved his defensive grappling deficiencies since he was mauled by a faded Alistair Overeem in Nov 2018. That may be a huge problem when you consider Blaydes’ best path to victory will be taking Pavlovich down early and often. Maybe Curtuis’ hands have improved considerably – he's way too savvy to risk and unnecessary standup. Blaydes has been stopped early in the past – by the freakish one-shot power of Francis N’Gannou as well as a one punch KO loss early 2nd round to the Black Beast(Lewis)...even though Pavlovich’s threat is mostly from a swarming volume. I would expect to see plenty of Curtis' signature G’n’P ending by 2nd or 3rd stoppage.
