Soso card...
odds
thoughts...
Jessica Eye +122 - Surprised at the odds, I'm not the biggest Jessica Eye fan, but Cavillo is coming off a draw against Marina Rodriguez....and now she's going up a weight class and is favored vs Eye, who has beaten Katlyn Chookagian and has been in the ring with Valentina Shevchenko?
Eye's weight cut wasn't great, but I think maybe it's a bit overblown. Yeah, I know "Aspen Ladd got KOd in 10 seconds last year after her bad weight cut." Ladd also got caught by a mean hook by GDR! That stoppage was also controversial and I'm not sure if Ladd's weight cut went perfect we would've seen a different result. Eye is going to have 36 hours to rehydrate and get her body back in shape.
Cavillo said in an interview this week that she wants to win (duh) but even if she loses she's just happy to be headlining a UFC card. Her path to victory is through grappling and takedowns. I'd be shocked to see her outstrike Eye. This is a 5-round fight as well. Can Cavillo get a TD and steal a round? Yes, but when you look at the odds on fight length there is -240 juice on o4.5. We are expecting this fight to go the distance. I see Eye outstriking Cavillo and stuffing enough takedowns in R1-3 to steal 2/3 rounds before Cavillo's gas tank goes on empty in R4-5. Once Cavillo is gassed, her advantage (TDs & grappling) will waiver. That's when Eye will take full control thanks to her superior striking.
I think Eye wins this fight 60% of the time based on her experience and skill set. +115 is great value based on my perceived value.
Cifers vs Agapova Over 2½ -172 - While not the best odds, there is clear value in overs in WMMA fights where both fighters are strikers. There is of course a huge weight and size mismatch here, favoring Agapova but Cifers being the better fighter overall it could play out either way. Can’t see either of them initiating any grappling or having the power to KO the enemy out cold.
Also leaning Roberson +200 and Aguilera +170 for live dogs
odds
thoughts...
Jessica Eye +122 - Surprised at the odds, I'm not the biggest Jessica Eye fan, but Cavillo is coming off a draw against Marina Rodriguez....and now she's going up a weight class and is favored vs Eye, who has beaten Katlyn Chookagian and has been in the ring with Valentina Shevchenko?
Eye's weight cut wasn't great, but I think maybe it's a bit overblown. Yeah, I know "Aspen Ladd got KOd in 10 seconds last year after her bad weight cut." Ladd also got caught by a mean hook by GDR! That stoppage was also controversial and I'm not sure if Ladd's weight cut went perfect we would've seen a different result. Eye is going to have 36 hours to rehydrate and get her body back in shape.
Cavillo said in an interview this week that she wants to win (duh) but even if she loses she's just happy to be headlining a UFC card. Her path to victory is through grappling and takedowns. I'd be shocked to see her outstrike Eye. This is a 5-round fight as well. Can Cavillo get a TD and steal a round? Yes, but when you look at the odds on fight length there is -240 juice on o4.5. We are expecting this fight to go the distance. I see Eye outstriking Cavillo and stuffing enough takedowns in R1-3 to steal 2/3 rounds before Cavillo's gas tank goes on empty in R4-5. Once Cavillo is gassed, her advantage (TDs & grappling) will waiver. That's when Eye will take full control thanks to her superior striking.
I think Eye wins this fight 60% of the time based on her experience and skill set. +115 is great value based on my perceived value.
Cifers vs Agapova Over 2½ -172 - While not the best odds, there is clear value in overs in WMMA fights where both fighters are strikers. There is of course a huge weight and size mismatch here, favoring Agapova but Cifers being the better fighter overall it could play out either way. Can’t see either of them initiating any grappling or having the power to KO the enemy out cold.
Also leaning Roberson +200 and Aguilera +170 for live dogs