UFC Live 5

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Nov 20, 2008
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I don't see much value in anything besides Noke at -175 over Herman.

I lean:
Lytle, Miller, and Oliveria.

I like Oliveria because he can finish anywhere. Where as Cerrone doesn't have 1 single KO/TKO in his whole career. And he isn't going to sub Oliveria. Cerrone has solid stand up, and this is a close fight. Cerrone could try to use some wrestling at the end of rounds and point his way on the feet to a win. But I think Oliveria is defiantly more dangerous, and I think he might prove to be a better striker. He is 21 years old and will improve drastically each time he fights. Plus it can't hurt that he is coming off a No Contest over Lentz for an illegal knee, a fight he would have won. He has to be hungry for a legit win.

I also think there are some nice parlay plays towards the start of the card...but it is hard to lay those numbers with such unproven/lower level fighters.

I think Benavidez at -240 is nice. Not many times you will get him below -340. He has proven to be a top 3 FW. Only a couple guys at that weight can beat him right now, and Windland isn't one of them. Windland is a solid fighter though, hence the low number. But Benavidez will control this fight.
 

Chargers and Padres 4 life
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Sep 5, 2007
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I'm on Benavidez HEAVY..can't really fathom him losing to Wineland...Benavidez is better in every aspect including a great gas tank..I think this should be closer to -400 or -500 personally
 

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